A widening schism between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi

The rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia got a lot wider after the UAE said yesterday that it’s leaving Opec this coming Friday, casting doubt on the future of the cartel.

But the body blow didn’t stop there: It’s anyone’s guess what the GCC’s political and security architecture looks like this morning after the UAE sent its foreign minister, not MbZ, to yesterday’s Saudi-led “extraordinary summit” in Jeddah. The heads of state of Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait were all on hand when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called the meeting to order.

The moves came just a day after closely watched UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash hammered the GCC as a political body, saying out loud what no UAE official has ever said before: The GCC’s response to two months of Iranian attacks is “the weakest historically considering the nature of the attack and the threat it poses to everyone.”

It gets worse: The GCC’s response to Iran was the kind of weak sauce you’d expect from the Arab League, he said, “not from the GCC, and I am surprised by it.”

None of this is happening at a good time for the private sector: GCC project awards are down nearly 10%, MEED says, regional tourism is facing a USD 56 bn hit per Oxford Economics, and everyone’s cashflows are strained. Happy hump day, friends.

One (very nice) ray of sunshine: Citadel is setting up shop in Dubai — an opening that would have been one of the most important in DIFC history even if it wasn’t happening in the middle of a war. –Patrick