MENA <> India Corridor 
Egypt Edition 
UAE Edition 
Saudi Edition 
Logistics (MENA) 
Climate (MENA) 
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Good afternoon, lovely people, and welcome to 2026. We hope you had the chance to celebrate with your loved ones and to recuperate ahead of a busy year.
Our top story today delves into Egypt’s plan to target USD 12 bn in bilateral trade with India by 2030. Kamel Galal, Egypt’s ambassador to India, walks us through the ambitious roadmap to achieve this target in an exclusive interview, highlighting Egypt’s position as a natural catalyst for the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor.
ALSO- Adani Group is making big moves in Bhutan as it commences work on its 570 MW hydropower project in the Himalayan country.
^^ All of that and more, below.
Watch this space
TRADE — US President Donald Trump has issued a fresh tariff warning to India over its purchases of Russian oil, a signal Gulf energy suppliers are watching closely as India recalibrates its crude sourcing, Business Standard reports, citing Trump’s comments. The remarks evoke a pressure tactic used by the US in 2025, when tariffs on Indian products increased to as high as 50%, which included an additional 25% tariff linked to India’s Russian oil imports.
Russian crude inflows fell sharply in December to about 1.2 mn bpd, down from 1.84 mn bpd in November, marking a three-year low as Indian refiners adjusted cargo nominations, Reuters reports. New Delhi has also asked refiners to submit weekly disclosures of Russian and US crude intake, a move driven by the Prime Minister’s Office to ensure that timely, primary data can be shared with US counterparts during trade talks.
Russia supplied roughly 35% of India’s crude imports in 2025, while the US accounted for 6.6%. Any renewed tariff escalation would raise the stakes for Gulf suppliers, who remain structurally central to India’s import basket through long-running term supply arrangements.
Our take: India is caught in a bind. Despite state-run refiners cutting on Russian barrels in December, the trade negotiations with the US have not progressed towards a tariff reduction. Refiners are unlikely to completely shun Russian crude given that the discounts enable them to keep prices in check in price-sensitive domestic markets and contribute to government revenues. Trump is clearly asking New Delhi to make him happy, but that effort may come at a steep cost, as Indian firms have invested USD 18 bn in Russian oil and gas assets as well as signed long-term supply agreement with Moscow’s drillers.
MANUFACTURING — India’s Electronics Ministry has greenlit INR 418.6 bn (USD 4.6 bn) in manufacturing projects from 22 companies, accelerating its bid to localize high-value electronic components. Approved firms include Samsung, Tata Electronics, and Foxconn. The third tranche of the Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme will draw subsidies from a scheme outlay of USD 2.5 bn, as per a statement.
A tariff + tech edge? Under the India-UAE CEPA, over 90% of Indian exports, including electronics, enter the UAE with zero duties. As India targets USD 500 bn in electronics production by 2031, the Gulf is positioned to be a key gateway and consumer for Indian manufacturers. India’s total electronic exports surged, growing nearly 42% in 1H FY 2025/26. Major players like Tata and Foxconn — who are also key partners for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 automotive and tech sectors — are anchoring this expansion.
Our take: As sovereign funds including Saudi Arabia’s PIF and the UAE’s MGX invest heavily in local tech manufacturing, India’s push for domestic manufacturing could offer components, talent, and technological support to the MENA region’s industrial hubs.
What’s next: The approved projects are expected to produce parts worth USD 28.6 bn. We expect to see these components moving through the India-MENA economic corridor and Jebel Ali as Indian manufacturers leverage these subsidies to undercut established East Asian rivals like China and Vietnam on price as well as through proximity to MENA firms.
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Data point
INR 4.15 tn (USD 50 bn) — This was the value of iPhones shipped from India in 2025, marking Apple’s highest annual export value from the country to date, Electronics and IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a post on X.
Context: Electronics production in India has increased six-fold and electronics exports have risen eight-fold over the past 11 years, placing the sector among the country’s top three export categories, Vaishnaw said.
By comparison: Samsung electronics exported devices worth nearly INR 1.41 tn (USD 17 bn) from India from FY 2021 to FY 2025, Vaishnaw said, underscoring the relative scale of Apple’s export ramp-up within a single calendar year.
PSAs
Indian travelers to Saudi Arabia must secure prior clearance for personal medications via the Gulf country’s new electronic platform, according to News on Air. Before departure, consult the Saudi official list, as common Indian prescriptions may be restricted or prohibited in the Kingdom.
The Big Story Abroad
All eyes are still set firmly on the situation in Venezuela, as the US clarifies its position moving forward, with US Secretary Marco Rubio explaining that the US plans to dictate policy in the country rather than physically run or occupy it, as was previously suggested by US President Donald Trump. Trump issued a warning to Venezuela’s current de facto leader, Delcy Rodríguez, of a “big price” to pay if she does not comply with the conditions the US has set in order for the country to avoid any further attacks by the US. These include that the oil industry be “run for the benefit of the people”; an end to drug trafficking and “gang problems”; as well as the removal of Colombian militant groups and that the government not “cozy up” to “Hezbollah and Iran.”
Rodríguez has so far been “gracious” and open to meeting the US’ conditions, Rubio said.
In the meantime, the US plans to continue to block the entry and exit of oil tankers as “leverage” over Maduro’s successor. “We are going to make our assessment on the basis of what they do, not what they say publicly,” Rubio added.
^^The must-read on the topic: Donald Trump warns Venezuelan rulers as Washington prepares to dictate policy
MEANWHILE- Thousands of travelers were stranded for hours on Sunday in both Greece and Italy, as a collapse of radio frequencies hit air traffic communications in Greece and technical issues with the landing guidance system and poor visibility affected an airport in Milan that is mainly a hub for Ryanair flights, Reuters reported separately here and here. Flights have begun to resume after the issues were resolved.
