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Tuesday, 23 Dec 2025

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Startup Watch
M&a Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance

Russian oil will continue to flow into India

Today at a glance

1

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Why India will not pivot away from Russian crude.
2

STARTUP WATCH

Enterprise Explains: How GCC became Indian startups’ preferred overseas launchpad.
3

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India concludes FTA with New Zealand, third trade deal in six months.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

L&T scales utilities strategy toward green hydrogen, grid storage.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Adani targets nuclear baseload as India opens high-capex sector.
6

M&A WATCH

MUFG’s USD 4.4bn acquisition of Shriram Finance highlights a growing competition with Gulf SWFs.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Year of the megadeals and AI acquisitions.
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: India concludes FTA with New Zealand

Good morning, readers. The Christmas slowdown has arrived early, and we bring a lighter edition for you this afternoon, but with a few important signals worth tracking.

Our big story today– We spoke to India’s leading energy expert, who told us that Indian refiners are likely to pick up more Russian crude in the coming weeks as the government has not issued any directive restricting them from such purchases.

ALSO- We bring you an explainer on why Indian start-ups are finding their second home in the GCC and what factors are influencing this shift. Let’s dive in.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

INFRASTRUCTURE: Mumbai-based engineering and infrastructure group Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is scaling up its utilities business, focusing on green hydrogen and large battery storage projects beyond its traditional transmission and distribution (T&D) segment in India and overseas, Business Standard reports.

Long-term focus: Green hydrogen is the company’s long-term priority, even as T&D and battery energy storage systems continue to drive near-term growth, the report added, citing Senior Executive Vice President T Madhava Das.

Corridor angle: L&T is a major engineering, procurement, and construction contractor operating in the Middle East region, working on large-scale projects in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. L&T is delivering the entire power system at Saudi Arabia’s Neom, encompassing solar, wind, battery storage, and transmission. It is also collaborating on the Yanbu Green Hydrogen project in the country.

Why it matters: For Gulf investors and energy buyers, L&T’s push into green hydrogen and grid-scale storage signals its growing international exposure. This positions the firm as an important EPC partner for renewables-to-industry projects that require integrated delivery across hydrogen, storage, and transmission infrastructure, rather than single-asset execution.

ENERGY: Adani Group is in talks with the Uttar Pradesh state government to build a commercial nuclear power project, marking one of the first private-sector forays since India opened the sector to private firms, Bloomberg reports. The proposal involves eight 200 MW small modular reactors, giving the project about 1.6 GW of capacity.

Public-private structure: The project is expected to be structured as a public-private partnership, with state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India expected to operate the plant, while the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre is working on the SMR design. The state has yet to identify a riverside site needed for cooling water, the report added.

Why does it matter? For Gulf sovereign wealth funds and long-term investors, India’s move from a purely state-led nuclear model toward private participation expands opportunities in India’s high-capital-intensive infrastructure projects. The UAE has already brought all four units of the Barakah nuclear plant into commercial operation, while Saudi Arabia continues to advance plans for a civil nuclear program.

TRADE: India has concluded a freetrade agreement (FTA) with New Zealand, marking its third such agreement in six months, according to a press release.

With this agreement, the two sides aim to double bilateral trade in five years. Total bilateral trade between India and New Zealand reached USD 2.4 bn in 2024, with services trade accounting for USD 1.4 bn, the statement added.

Trade + investment terms: New Zealand will grant zero-duty market access on 100% of Indian exports, while India will liberalize tariffs on 70% of tariff lines, covering 95% of bilateral trade. The deal also includes a commitment from New Zealand to direct USD 20 bn in foreign direct investment into India over 15 years, backed by a rebalancing mechanism if investment targets are not met, the daily added.

Why it matters: This FTA is India’s third in a year following last week’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Oman and an agreement with the UK in May. With 50% US tariffs still in place and the agreement with Washington delayed, New Delhi is moving swiftly to close agreements with key bilateral partners to offset losses in export-oriented industries squeezed by these duties. This renewed push could augur well for the India-GCC FTA, which has been under negotiation since 2004.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Oil prices ticked up in Asia this morning after US forces tried to tighten their blockade of oil tankers coming into and out of Venezuela. The US coast guard is reportedly pursuing in international waters a tanker that was heading into Venezuela. The development comes barely two days after it raided a Panama-flagged ship and two weeks after it seized a third.

It’s otherwise a particularly quiet morning in the global business press — markets seem already to be sliding into the Christmas week news slowdown. That has the business pages serving up year-end fare including:

We’re not sure 2025 is going to give up the ghost quite so easily, but … we’ll take it.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

India will not pivot away from Russian crude but energy ties with MENA strategically unbeatable

As Washington sharpens its posture around Russian energy, New Delhi has doubled down on its strategic autonomy. India views Western pressure as a catalyst to strengthen local industry and deepen ties with Middle East partners. In this context, Indian refiners are expected to continue buying Russian crude, despite sanctions on firms including Lukoil and Rosneft, India’s leading energy expert Narendra Taneja told EnterpriseAM.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The view from New Delhi: Taneja, a distinguished research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, notes that Russian crude itself is not under sanctions. “If they sanction Russian oil, it will be a massive disruption to the global oil supply system, driving prices to USD 120 per barrel,” he observed.

When Indian refiners began buying from Russia, there was no government directive; it was a “purely commercial decision” driven by discounts that were “sometimes as high as USD 20 per barrel.” While some refiners have slowed purchases to mitigate risk, Taneja emphasizes that no firm government directive exists to stop.

Buying continues-

India’s crude oil purchases from Russia jumped to a five-month high in November to 1.77 mn bpd, according to Economic Times and Reuters reports. This followed a brief downturn in October as US sanctions on Lukoil and Roseneft came in. “If Russian exporters can deliver oil to Indian refiners, they will continue to buy,” Taneja said, adding that refiners still find the barrels commercially attractive.

To navigate sanctions on specific firms, refiners may use specialized intermediaries in Dubai and Singapore. “These companies are highly specialized and competent… manned by experts from all over the world,” Taneja said, adding that they maintain long-standing relationships with Indian refiners. He described this as “legal business,” reiterating that sanctions are unilateral rather than UN-imposed. “Once the oil comes into the international system, it loses its nationality,” he said.

The energy partnership with Russia is anchored by significant capital flows. Indian firms have invested USD 18 bn in Russian oil and gas assets. Russian firms have invested USD 13 bn in the Indian oil sector.

The MENA-India energy partnership is strong and long term-

India’s approach remains to diversify supply, even as discounted Russian barrels help manage near-term price sensitivity, Taneja said. He famed this as a demand-supply interdependence: “For India, energy security is securing supply. But for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, energy security is securing demand.”

India’s demand is projected to reach 10 mn bpd by 2050, and Gulf producers are increasingly positioning themselves as long-term partners and investors in India’s refining ecosystem to “lock in” demand.

What to watch in 2026-

The Ukraine peace agreement: A breakthrough would lead to a “complete recalibration” of global supply, potentially lowering prices and reopening Western Europe to Russian flows. In this scenario, Middle East suppliers may offer more competitive deals to attract big importers like India.

Continued sanctions: If the war persists, the US policy stance would remain a key market variable. India will maintain a “dynamic approach,” purchasing from any geography — including the US and Russia — where it finds better commercial terms.

The Middle East floor: Simultaneously, India’s core strategy is to ensure it never “drastically” cuts imports from Middle East partners. Maintaining these flows is a fundamental part of the national energy doctrine.

Refining role-

India is positioning itself as the world’s “refining superpower,” importing crude from around 40 countries and exporting petroleum products to roughly 100 nations. Despite external pressure, New Delhi signals that it “cannot afford to completely stop buying” oil because of pressure from “country X or country Y.”

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3

STARTUP WATCH

Enterprise Explains: How GCC became Indian startups’ preferred overseas launchpad

Indian startups are increasingly turning to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a first overseas expansion market, driven by capital availability, policy support, and stronger revenue visibility compared to other international destinations.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The shift is most visible in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia where SWFs, accelerators, and government-backed platforms are actively engaging Indian firms across fintech, enterprise SaaS, AI, logistics, and consumer internet sectors.

The UAE-India CEPA Council’s start-up series received more than “10k applications from Indian startups in under two months, making it the largest start-up initiative of its kind ever held in India. This level of engagement has validated the CEPA Council’s model and demonstrated strong demand for structured pathways into the UAE innovation ecosystem,” Director of UAE-India CEPA Council Ahmed Aljneibi told EnterpriseAM.

The UAE offers Indian startups a uniquely global scaling platform. “It combines regulatory clarity, ease of doing business, access to regional and international capital, and proximity to diverse clients across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe,” Aljneibi said. “Importantly, founders can internationalize without disconnecting from India, maintaining operational and cultural proximity.”

“What we are seeing is a clear change in founder mindset,” Lloyd Mathias, angel investor and business strategist, told EnterpriseAM. “Unlike earlier phases where startups focused on Silicon Valley or Southeast Asia, the GCC has become the primary port of call for many Indian founders over the last year.”

Why the GCC, and why now-

Several factors are converging to make the GCC an attractive expansion destination for Indian startups. Mathias pointed to the availability of large pools of capital as a key driver. “These economies are now actively looking beyond oil,” he said, citing Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s startup-focused initiatives such as Hub71.

Geographic proximity and familiarity also matter. Most cities in the Gulf region are three-to-five-hour flights from India’s commercial hubs and host a large Indian diaspora, lowering cultural friction. This contrasts with tightening visa regimes and policy uncertainty in traditional Western markets, particularly the US.

High digital adoption and enterprise readiness across GCC economies further strengthen the case. “There is a strong appetite to adopt technology,” Mathias said. “At the same time, there is a talent gap that Indian startups can fill.”

Ashish Bhatia, founder and chief executive of India Accelerator, said the motivation for expansion has also become more pragmatic. “Founders aren’t expanding for a checkbox anymore,” he told EnterpriseAM. “They’re asking where their product will get adopted fastest, with the least friction and real revenue visibility. For many, the GCC feels like a logical second market after India.”

“Founders aren’t expanding for a checkbox anymore,” he told EnterpriseAM. “They’re asking where their product will get adopted fastest, with the least friction and real revenue visibility. For many, the GCC feels like a logical second market after India.”

Revenue visibility and scaling-

For many founders, the GCC offers stronger pricing power than the Indian market. “Indian clients often push pricing to levels that become unviable. While the GCC market is smaller in size, it is far more lucrative,” Mathias said.

Expansion beyond the Gulf: Indian startups are increasingly using the GCC not only as an end market but as a regional operating base to access clients across the Middle East and Africa. “More mature Indian startups are increasingly choosing the UAE as their regional base to expand into MENA rather than entering each market individually”, Ahmed said.

Specialized accelerator programs-

India Accelerator, a Gurugram-based startup accelerator, recently expanded into Saudi Arabia with a USD 15 mn fund to support Indian startups entering the Kingdom. The program is backed by Saudi Arabia’s National Technology Development Program (NTDP).

“What we realized was that the gap wasn’t access to capital — it was the absence of a structured pathway from pitching to proof,” Ashish Bhatia, founder and chief executive of India Accelerator, told EnterpriseAM. “Founders were coming in for fundraising conversations without customers, pilots, or operating presence.”

Watch out for risks-

While momentum is building, founders face risks if they underestimate regulatory variation, cultural norms, and the importance of local partnerships, Mathias cautioned. “The GCC provides revenue and margins, while India provides scale,” he said. “Used together, they create a more balanced revenue profile — but founders need to approach the region with discipline and patience.”

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4

M&A WATCH

The USD 10 bn M&A Surge: Japanese and Emirati investors dominate in India’s financial sector in 2025

Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) is investing USD 4.4 bn to acquire a 20% minority stake in India’s shadow lender Shriram Finance, according to a press release (pdf).

Key details: The acquisition, which values Shriram at approximately INR 2 tn (USD 22.2 bn), involves the issuance of 471 mn new shares at a 3.3% discount to the stock’s recent closing price, Bloomberg reports. This transaction is set to be the single largest foreign investment in India’s financial services sector, ahead of Emirates NBD’s USD 3 bn majority stake acquisition of Mumbai-based RBL Bank.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Why it matters: Japanese investors are scaling up their India exposure, increasingly overlapping with Gulf sovereign wealth funds that have been building positions in India’s banking and consumer finance sector.

Other SWF bets in 2025: Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC) picked up a 41.2% stake in housing finance firm Samaan Capital at USD 1 bn. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority also picked a 7% stake in IDFC First Bank for USD 310 mn.

The pattern: The MUFG-Shriram transaction caps a strong year for Indian dealmaking. Total M&A volume in India is projected to exceed USD 60 bn in 2025, with the financial services sector alone accounting for roughly USD 10 bn of that flow. MUFG is the latest Japanese financial group to scale up in India:

  • Sumitomo Mitsui recently became the largest shareholder in Yes Bank after snapping up a 20% stake for USD 1.3 bn.
  • Mizuho recently acquired a USD 524 mn majority stake in Avendus Capital.

What’s next: Expect the momentum to carry into 2026 as overseas institutions continue to look for avenues for consolidation in India. For Gulf investors, the challenge will be competing with the sheer scale and low cost of Japanese capital, which is increasingly being deployed in India.

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5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

India-US trade shows November rebound after two-month slump

India’s merchandise exports to the US rebounded sharply in November, rising 22.6% to USD 6.98 bn after two consecutive months of decline, driven by supply-chain realignments and pre-holiday inventory restocking by US buyers, Economic Times reports, citing the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The rebound came even as a 50% US tariff on Indian goods has been in place since 27 August, while imports from the US rose 38.2% to USD 5.25 bn in November, the report added.

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6

PLANET FINANCE

Global M&A rebounds in 2025, led by mega-transactions, tech, and AI

Global M&A snapped back in 2025 — though unevenly. Transaction value jumped 36% and is on track to hit a total of USD 4.8 tn, which would make 2025 the second-strongest year on record for M&A, Bain & Company said in a new report. Volumes rose just 5%, making clear this was a rebound driven by transaction value, not a flood of activity.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Go big or don’t bother: Transactions above USD 5 bn accounted for more than 75% of incremental transaction value as infrequent, deep-pocketed buyers re-entered the market. Around 40% of these agreements were “transformative,” meaning they were worth more than half the buyer’s market cap.

Tech did the heavy lifting: Technology M&A surged more than 75% y-o-y, powered by AI-related agreements. Nearly half of strategic tech transaction value was tied to AI-native targets or capabilities, underscoring how acquirers are choosing to buy transformation rather than build it slowly.

Growth is back in fashion. Roughly 60% of large transactions in 2025 targeted revenue expansion or new capabilities — the highest share on record — reversing the cost-cutting, consolidation-heavy playbooks that dominated during the downturn.

Still, M&A lost the budget fight: Despite the rebound, companies allocated just 7% of total capital spending to acquisitions — a decade low — as capex and R&D took priority. The Magnificent Seven alone spent nearly USD 500 bn on capex and R&D through 3Q, crowding out dealmaking.

US and China were still the two biggest M&A markets: US targets drove nearly half of global strategic transaction value growth, while Greater China led by transaction count thanks to domestic activity. EMEA’s M&A market lagged — with volumes falling 7% despite strong growth in transaction value.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were in the green this morning after China held its loan prime rates steady, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 both gaining more than 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei was also up 1.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.8%. Over on Wall Street, futures are also edging higher ahead of a shortened holiday week.

Sensex

85,504

+0.68% (YTD: +8.7%)

NIFTY 50

26,156

+0.7% (YTD: +10.1%)

ADX

10,011

+0.4% (YTD: +6.2%)

DFM

6,120

+0.1% (YTD: +18.6%)

Tadawul

10,491

+0.07% (YTD: -12.8%)

EGX30

4,427

+0.36% (YTD: +43.4%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,270

-0.31% (YTD: +20.2%)

QSE

10,748

+0.3% (YTD: +1.3%)

S&P 500

6,834

+0.9% (YTD: +16.2%)

FTSE 100

9,859

-0.38% (YTD: +19.37%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,757

-0.05% (YTD: +17.07%)

Brent crude

USD 61

+0.86%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.1

+3.04%

Gold

USD 4,411

+1.67%

BTC

USD 89,684

+0.9% (YTD: -6.6%)

Values in the table above are listed as per the market position at 3:00 pm (IST) / 1:30 pm (GST).

DECEMBER

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): India assumes the Presidency of Brics.

19-20 January (Monday-Tuesday): International Crop Science Conference and Exhibition, Le Méridien Conference Center, Dubai.

26 January (Monday): Republic Day (Public Holiday).

27 January (Tuesday): India-EU Summit (to potentially finalize FTA), New Delhi.

27-30 January (Tuesday-Friday): India Energy Week, ONGC Advanced Training Institute, Goa.

30 January-1 February (Friday-Sunday): India Agri Expo, Ludhiana Exhibition Center, Punjab.

31 January (Saturday): Commencement of Budget Session 2026, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

FEBRUARY

1 February (Sunday): Union Budget 2026-27, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

3-6 February (Tuesday-Friday): ChemTech World Expo, Jio World Convention Center, Mumbai.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Pune International Business Summit (PIBS), SL Kirloskar Convention Center, JW Marriott, Pune.

14-18 February (Saturday-Wednesday): IHGF Delhi Fair (Spring), New Delhi.

19-20 February (Thursday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

4 March (Wednesday): Holi (Public Holiday).

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards, Bengaluru.

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan – Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Al Fitr (Public Holiday).

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PlastiWorld India, Jio World Convention Center, Mumbai.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti (Public Holiday).

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

  • Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory Puducherry.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday (Public Holiday).

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima (Public Holiday).

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Al Adha (Public Holiday).

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram (Public Holiday).

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day (Public Holiday).

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday (Public Holiday).

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Public Holiday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra (Public Holiday).

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti (Public Holiday).

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day (Public Holiday).

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