More India-bound cargoes passing Homruz

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

EPointZero and Adani Green Energy partner on India renewables

Good afternoon, lovely people, and happy FRIDAY. All eyes are on today’s talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan, as the fate of the ceasefire continues to hang in the balance.

Two main sticking points remain: The Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon. Iran has shut the Strait in response to attacks on Lebanon, which were their most fatal on Wednesday since the war began. Iran’s closure of the Strait later prompted more threats from US President Donald Trump who said that was “not the agreement we have.”

Indian equities are on track for their strongest weekly gains in more than five years today, as investors gained comfort from the fragile truce. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 have gained about 5.7% since the ceasefire, breaking a six-week losing streak triggered by a foreign investor sell-off. Financial stocks led the gains, rising about 8.8% this week, while blue-chip companies also clocked significant gains.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — Abu Dhabi-based investment platform EPointZero and Adani Green Energy are launching a joint venture to develop renewable projects in India, as per a disclosure (pdf). EPointZero is a stepdown subsidiary of the emirate’s International Holding Company and will execute the JV through its India-focused investment vehicle Minerva Holding.

Structure and control: Adani Green, through its UAE subsidiary, will hold up to a 20% stake in the JV and appoint one director, while Minerva retains majority control with up to four board seats. Financial details have not been disclosed yet.

Why it matters: The pact reflects growing Gulf capital flows into India’s clean energy sector, as Abu Dhabi’s largest listed entity seeks long-term exposure to high-growth markets while Adani Group taps global funding to scale its renewable portfolio. With this move, the IHC is stepping in as an active project developer instead of a passive liquidity provider for the Adani Group’s fast-expanding renewables portfolio which spans 12 Indian states with an installed capacity of 19.3 GW. The IHC has broader plans to pour up to USD 110 bn in India and previously invested USD 2 bn in Adani’s green portfolio in 2022.

AVIATION — India’s airport regulator has slashed landing and parking fees for domestic flights by 25% for three months to ease cost pressures on airlines, Reuters reports. This follows a spike in aviation turbine fuel prices and 10k flight cancellations during the US-Israel-Iran war.

Cost relief: Major domestic carriers IndiGo and Air India had lobbied for the relaxation of airport-related charges amid rising operating costs and cancellations. Indian airlines are currently dealing with a combination of cost-inflating factors — continued restrictions in Pakistani airspace have led to longer flight routes and higher fuel costs, and route diversions in the Gulf are affecting route economics.

Why it matters: Indian carriers are running only 90 daily flights to the Middle East, down from some 350 before the war began. Rating agency ICRA has downgraded the outlook for the Indian carriers to negative as the industry is projected to clock INR 180 bn in losses through FY 2026.

ECONOMY — The World Bank raised India’s FY 2027 growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.3%, citing steady domestic demand despite risks from the Middle East conflict, per its South Asia Economic Update. While lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 6.9% estimate, the figure aligns with forecasts from the OECD (6.1%) and Moody’s (6%), PTI reports. Meanwhile, the ADB sees growth easing to 6.9% this fiscal year due to external headwinds, Bloomberg reports.

The risks: Growth is expected to moderate from 7.6% in FY 2026 as global tensions inflate energy prices and dampen purchasing power, though indirect tax reforms could support consumption. Regional instability remains the primary threat to India's resilient domestic demand.

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Data point

1.45 bn — that is the number of monthly users engaging with both local and international streaming services in India, driven by the proliferation of low-cost mobile data and smartphones, Economic Times citing a report by brokerage firm CLSA. This digital surge is set to continue, with the country's internet user base expected to hit 885 mn by FY 2028.

Who is leading the pack? YouTube dominates the landscape with 722 mn users, while the Reliance-supported JioHotstar follows with 390 mn. In the global arena, Netflix maintains a lead with roughly 92 mn users, surpassing Amazon Prime Video's 67 mn.

Happening today

India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Puri is concluding a two-day visit to Qatar as New Delhi navigates disruptions to Qatari gas supplies. The talks come against the backdrop of the US-Iran ceasefire.

The big story abroad

AI cyber risk is now getting top billing in international business outlets, amid reports that US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent summoned the leaders of some of the largest US banks to discuss the threat posed by Anthropic’s latest model. The model, Mythos, is able to identify and potentially exploit vulnerabilities in major operating systems and web browsers. It’s already been rolled out to select firms, including Amazon and Apple, who should be securing the most important systems.

Meanwhile, Dolce and Gabbana is considering options for a potential sale of Chairman Stefano Gabbana’s 40% stake in the firm, after he resigned yesterday. The luxury fashion house has been struggling to meet terms governing its debt amid headwinds for the sector, with lenders now reportedly seeking some USD 176 in funding to refinance its debt, sources said,

The company might also dispose of real estate assets to raise the funds.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

Iranian crude in India after 7 years

India will receive its first Iranian crude shipment in seven years after a temporary US sanctions waiver, Reuters reports, citing Kpler and LSEG data. State-run Indian Oil Corporation is set to purchase the cargo, arriving later this week on the carrier VLCC Jaya, which is heading towards India’s east coast.

What’s changed: India had halted Iranian purchases — a discounted crude option once central to its import mix — in 2019 under US pressure. The current US waiver comes on the back of wartime disruptions causing tightened Middle East supply and elevated freight and ins. costs for Asian buyers.

Why it matters: Iran has amassed over 180 mn barrels in floating storage — unsold crude held at sea. India’s purchase offers Tehran an alternate buyer while providing Indian refiners a slight short-term price leverage as they face high premiums elsewhere. The government also clarified that Indian refiners faced no payment hurdles, allowing the country to diversify sourcing and secure energy supplies.

More oil in the pipeline? Another tanker, Jordan, is also signaling India as its destination, but flows hinge on how long the US waiver will hold.

India bends rules to secure supply

PLUS- India has eased port restrictions to fast-track delivery of energy cargoes from the Gulf, granting case-by-case waivers for Iranian-linked cargoes including aging and sanctioned ships, Reuters reports.

What we know: Aurora, a 30-year old LPG carrier, was cleared to berth at New Mangalore Port while Jaya, a US sanctioned crude tanker was also allowed to unload at the Paradip Port along the eastern coast. Both cargoes were cleared after baseline safety checks. This is a break from standard Indian port rules that typically bar ships over 20 years old or those sanctioned by Washington.

India-bound vessels trickle through Hormuz

With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt on the second day of the ceasefire, two India-bound oil tankers managed to cross the strait yesterday, Hindu reports. Vessel movement dropped to near zero, as shippers await clarity on transit rules ahead of expected Iran-US talks in Pakistan.

Why it matters: The transit of the oil tankers — Marivex carrying Iranian crude to New Mangalore Port and MSG originating in the UAE — suggests that India is still securing coordinated transit through Iranian-controlled lanes by engaging directly with Tehran. A note by the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps flagged potential naval mines in the strait and directed ships to pass through the narrow coastal corridors near the Iranian coast, the daily added.

MEANWHILE- India wants Tehran to fast-track India-bound oil and gas shipments to utilize the current ceasefire window and rebuild its fuel inventories in a bid to stabilize domestic supply, Economic Times reports, citing unnamed officials. Around 16 Indian-flagged ships remain stranded in the Gulf, with nearly 800 vessels caught in the region.

Recovery to take time: Despite the halt in hostilities, a full normalization of oil trade could take up to three months. Slow vessel movement, limited tanker and ins. availability, and production disruptions are logistical bottlenecks that await. While some LPG carriers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, the backlog clearance will be gradual.

Toll tensions linger: Iran may not fully restore shipping flows without a lasting agreement. India has reiterated its stance on zero-toll navigation, even as discussions around a potential transit levy in the Strait of Hormuz add to the uncertainty, with Europe and US pushing for unrestricted navigation.

Russia pitches 40% markdown on LNG cargoes to South Asia

Russia is offering South Asian buyers liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes at 40% below spot rates to replace Gulf supplies disrupted by the Iran war, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The cargoes are tied to Russian projects under US sanctions, including Arctic LNG 2. Sellers are reportedly using intermediary trading firms in China and Russia to facilitate transactions and provide shipment documentation that reflects alternative origins including Oman or Nigeria.

Why South Asia? The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan — the world’s largest LNG plant — have squeezed global LNG availability. This supply crunch, combined with rising prices, has sent procurement costs soaring for import-dependent nations of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Why it matters: India relies on Qatar for about 41% of its LNG imports, leaving it exposed to supply disruptions in the Gulf, while Bangladesh — which sourced about 60% of its LNG from Qatar last year — has increased spot purchases, at times paying nearly twice its long-term contract prices. Both countries have reduced gas allocation to industries to mitigate shortages.

Sanctions overhang: Most buyers remain cautious due to potential US penalties. However, some countries — like China — have continued importing Russian LNG through alternative shipping channels.

Refiners pivot away from the greenback for Russian crude

Indian refiners are increasingly ditching the USD to settle Russian oil purchases, opting instead for alternative currencies to dodge sanctions risks amid escalating geopolitical tensions and shifts in US policy. The workaround is a “tactical attempt to keep relatively cheaper flows going while reducing exposure to US jurisdiction over USD clearing and sanctions risk,” economist Abhijit Mukhopadhyay tells EnterpriseAM.

How it works: Buyers are depositing INR into special overseas accounts held by Russian sellers, which are then converted into AED or CNY. The trades are being facilitated by Indian banks with a limited offshore footprint to fly under the radar of US jurisdiction. Refiners are also weighing the use of Singapore’s SGD and Hong Kong’s HKD, though transactions depend on the comfort levels of individual banks.

A classic sanctions-arbitrage play

This strategy allows buyers to diversify invoicing currencies and route through niche banks, accepting “higher operational complexity in exchange for supply security and price advantage,” Abhijit tells us.

Could Iran be next? Similar mechanisms could be deployed for Iranian crude, though Tehran is likely to favor the CNY over the INR. “CNY is attractive because Iran can use it to buy from China and settle other Asian trade, as most of the West does not do any business with Iran,” Abhijit noted. Widespread use of the INR remains unlikely given the post-sanctions drop in bilateral trade and the limited scope for Iran to spend INR balances on Indian imports.

The USD isn’t dead yet

It’s a stress test: While Deutsche Bank recently noted that the ongoing geopolitical conflict is stress-testing the USD’s role in global oil trade, the greenback’s core dominance isn’t under immediate threat.

A multi-polar margin: These developments are contributing to the “slow but steady structural erosion of the USD’s share” in reserves and commodity trade, Abhijit explained. However, they primarily deepen a multi-polar ecosystem around sanctioned flows, where the USD remains the primary anchor for pricing, hedging, and reserve management in non-sanctioned trade.

What’s next for India: Driven by the threat of secondary sanctions, this tactical shift could have lasting legacy effects. If these alternative payment channels become normalized, some non-USD usage will likely persist to insulate energy supply chains. However, practical limits on INR internationalization and a reluctance to over-rely on the CNY point to a “hybrid equilibrium,” Abhijit said. “The USD is likely to remain the central currency, but Indian buyers will keep a portfolio of options, which they can scale up or down as sanctions and geopolitics evolve.”

RBI aggressive measures to curb INR volatility

The INR depreciated 6.2% against the USD in the last six months, as pressure intensified from foreign portfolio outflows, climbing corporate USD demand, and global risk aversion, as per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Amid the Iran war, India saw foreign investor outflows of around USD 12 bn from equities and continued selling in debt markets. This prompted the country’s central bank to intervene with regulatory measures to curb the currency volatility.

RBI curbs currency speculation

The RBI capped banks’ net open positions (NOP) at USD 100 mn at the end of each trading day, requiring lenders to reduce outstanding forex positions by 10 April, to increase USD liquidity in the onshore market. The measures triggered a reduction in open positions ahead of the deadline, contributing to stabilization in the INR after it dropped to record lows of 95.2 / USD in late March.

Containing onshore-offshore build-up

The measures also targeted positioning imbalances between onshore and offshore markets, including restrictions on onshore banks’ participation in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market. “We believe the RBI’s recent guidelines on limiting NOP in the onshore market, along with directives to onshore banks not to deal in the NDF market, are aimed at curbing the buildup of onshore-offshore positioning while giving the RBI greater control over USD/INR in the onshore market,” Manthan Shingala, Asia FX strategist at Nomura, told EnterpriseAM.

The shift has widened the onshore-offshore spread, with 12-month forward points rising to around INR 1.25 from about INR 0.2 earlier in March, while forward market volumes declined as positions were unwound. “We believe beyond the 10 April deadline, these volumes are likely to shrink further, making price discovery less efficient,” Shingala added.

Tactical intervention, not a shift

The RBI’s intervention is tactical — to ensure USD supply while containing volatility — without over-reliance on reserves, Charan Singh, formerly an economist at the International Monetary Fund and research director at the RBI, told EnterpriseAM. He said the move shows the central bank is deploying multiple tools to manage currency pressures, instead of relying only on forex reserves.

“The Monetary Policy Committee meeting [of RBI] gives some confidence that there is no structural shift in India’s currency management framework. These measures are not permanent and will be reviewed at an appropriate time,” Shingala said.

The measures come amid pressures from foreign portfolio outflows, higher corporate demand for USD, and elevated oil prices. By forcing a reduction in open FX positions, the RBI is effectively increasing USD availability onshore while limiting speculative positioning, Singh said.

India hits nuclear milestone with fast breeder reactor

India has managed a breakthrough in advanced nuclear technology, with its prototype fast breeder reactor (FBR) reaching “criticality,” a stage where a self-sustaining chain reaction begins, as per a press release by the Department of Atomic Energy.

How it works: The 500 MW reactor at the coastal town of Kalpakkam in southern India produces more fissile fuel than it consumes by converting uranium into plutonium. The FBR enables reuse of spent fuel and lays the groundwork for thorium-based reactors which in turn will increase fuel efficiency of the nuclear plants.

Why it matters: For India, which relies on imported uranium, this makes fuel recycling critical and cuts external dependence. While the country holds limited uranium, it has over a quarter of the world’s thorium reserves, with this technology lending incentive to tap its vast domestic reserves.

The advancement puts India in a top technological cohort, with Russia being the only other country operating a commercial FBR. As Gulf states expand civil nuclear capacity to diversify from hydrocarbons, India’s closed-cycle expertise could position it as a future partner to the MENA region in fuel services and nuclear cooperation.

Kudos: The International Energy Agency hailed India on the breakthrough, calling it “an important technological achievement” in a post on X.

Al Mal Capital names Sanjay Vig as CEO

Sanjay Vig (LinkedIn) has been appointed as the CEO of UAE-based investment firm Al Mal Capital, according to a company statement. Previously deputy CEO, Vig joined the firm in 2016 to lead its corporate advisory and direct investments. With over 40 years of experience in corporate and investment banking across India and the Middle East, he has overseen more than USD 30 bn in transactions, holding previous roles at Alpen Capital, Emirates Bank Group, and Mashreq Bank.

Agri startup Pluckk secures Gulf funding for global expansion

Pluckk, a Mumbai-based agri startup, has raised INR 1 bn (USD 10.8 mn) fresh capital from Dubai-based venture capital firm Euro Gulf Investment, Economic Times reports. The transaction was an all-equity round, taking the Emirati firm’s total funding in Plucck to USD 26 mn.

Growth and expansion plans: Pluckk uses computer vision for farm-level quality checks and AI for demand forecasting and pricing. The company will deploy capital toward product innovation, technology upgrades and geographic expansion. It plans to enter international markets, including the UAE and UK, targeting demand for clean-label Indian food products, while deepening its presence in tier 2 and tier 3 cities in India.

EMs’ recovery short-lived as shaky ceasefire keeps volatility high

A cause for celebration for emerging market equities is on pause after the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was rocked by Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iranian strikes on the Gulf.

ICYMI- Equity markets in our neck of the woods had rallied immediately after the ceasefire news, with Egypt’s EGX up 4.1% at the end of trading on Wednesday, Saudi’s Tadawul closing up 2.3%, and UAE equities catching a break with their biggest intraday rally in twelve years. The EGP also gained roughly 2.5% on the greenback, with analysts predicting recovery momentum could hold.

But it didn’t last too long. The ceasefire cracked and EM markets slumped, with currencies and equities dipping for the first time in five days, Bloomberg reports. The MSCI Index tracking equities in developing nations was down 0.9%, and EM currencies were down 0.3%. Energy import-dependent markets in Asia drove the slump, as movement through Hormuz stayed sticky.

EMs were hit by a massive rout at the start of the war, with Institute of International Finance data showing that USD 70.3 bn was pulled from EM assets, with USD 56 bn pulled just from EM stocks. Meanwhile, the USD clawed its way back as the safe haven of choice for investors.

Pockets of resilience are pushing a neutral outlook for EMs: In its latest Weekly Market Commentary, BlackRock’s Wei Li wrote that the firm is opting for a policy of “quality and selectivity” when it comes to EMs, pointing to pockets of resilience from net energy exporters helping to buoy emerging market equities.

The asset management giant is also bullish on EM USD-denominated debt, shielding from currency volatility, markets that are relatively shielded from the regional conflict, like South America, and infrastructure assets linked to the AI buildout.

Will the recovery pick up again? For now, the risks are still there but are being offset somewhat by the ceasefire, Generali Asset Management’s Guillaume Tresca told the news outlet. Confidence is still low, and volatility is high, with analysts slashing predictions of interest rate cuts.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets continued to gain this morning despite the fragile ceasefire, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining 1.8%, as the country plans to release 20 days’ worth of oil reserves from May, South Korea’s Kospi was up 1.7%, and China’s CSI 300 gained 0.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was also up 0.9%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are down.

Sensex	77,237	+0.7% (YTD: -9.3%)
NIFTY 50	23,961	+0.7% (YTD: -8.1%)
ADX	9,844	+0.09% (YTD: -1.5%)
DFM	5,697	+0.07% (YTD: -5.8%)
Tadawul	11,343	+0.04% (YTD:8.1%)
EGX30	49,079	+1% (YTD:+17.3%)
Boursa Kuwait	7,971	+0.6% (YTD: -3.9%)
QSE	10,641	-0.1% (YTD: -1.1%)
S&P 500	6,824	+0.6% (YTD: -0.3%)
FTSE 100	10,641	+0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,921	+0.4% (YTD: +1.8%)
Brent crude	USD 96	+0.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.67	+0.11%
Gold	USD 4,751	-0.2%
BTC	USD 71,780	+0.3%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

APRIL

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

15-17 April (Wednesday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi is expected to be held between July-August. Dates yet to be announced;
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle. Dates yet to be announced;
India Mobile Congress, New Delhi will likely be held in October. Dates yet to be announced.

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