Good morning, friends and happy hump day. Fresh off the enactment of new labor laws, we have news this morning of the Modi government's legislative agenda, which is stacked with bills that could impact India’s business environment.

ALSO IN THIS MORNING’S ISSUE- GDP forecast for 2Q and FY 2026. Niti Aayog wants a rethink on Chinese FDI restrictions. New Delhi prepares to seal a trade agreement with the European Union.

ALSO- Downtown Dubai to welcome Sunteck Realty’s luxury offering. ENBD and RBL officials discuss India’s biggest banking M&A. TotalEnergies is looking to book profit on its Adani bid. Bharti Airtel’s Africa subsidiary eyes listing in the UAE.

^^ We have all of that and more, below.

PSA- Whether you want to watch yourself or you’re forced to by your spawn: It’s nearly Stranger Things day. The first four episodes of what its producers are calling Volume 1 of the final season will drop on Netflix at 1am GMT on 27 November. Three more (Volume 2) drop on 25 December, and the finale will stream on 31 December. Each episode will be well north of an hour long.

SIGN OF THE TIMES-

Indian government think tank Niti Aayog has advised the government to either remove orsignificantly relax restrictions on Chinese investment, signalling the first high-level rethink of the policy since its introduction in April 2020. Beijing imposed export controls on critical minerals as leverage against Press Note 3 regulations, which mandate prior government approval for any investment from countries sharing a land border with India. The Press Note 3 virtually barred all Chinese investments in India following the 2020 border clashes between the two countries.

Calibrated easing could help India integrate into global value chains, particularly for critical minerals, and lift exports, the think tank argued. The telecom, defense, space, and power sectors should remain off-limits for now on national security concerns, Niti Aayog suggests.

The options: Revert to the pre-2020 regime or permitting investments where beneficial ownership is below 10%, alongside allowing up to 49% cumulative foreign holdings in non-strategic sectors under cabinet-level scrutiny. Niti Ayog has asked the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade to finalize a decision by 31 December.

SOUND SMART- Niti Aayog isn’t a group of independent policy wonks, but New Delhi’s apex public policy think tank. Chaired by the prime minister, it replaced the Soviet-style Planning Commission in 2015 to drive "cooperative federalism." It doesn’t allocate funds, but acts as the state’s strategic designer — formulating long-term economic frameworks, monitoring execution, and looking for ways to promote coordination between the Centre and the states.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

S&P Global is holding its FY2026 growth forecast at 6.5%, betting that robust government investment and a favorable monsoon will offset drag from US tariffs. The agency sees growth ticking up to 6.7% in FY2027 (ending March 2027). Both forecasts are unchanged from S&P’s last Asia-Pacific outlook note.

• Room for a rate cut: S&P lowered its FY2026 inflation call to 3.2% (down from earlier highs) as food prices cool, paving the way for a 25 bps rate cut by the RBI this fiscal year.
• Tariff warning: It’s not all good news. S&P warns India is being hit “much harder than expected” by US tariffs compared to regional peers, with effective duties rising enough to eat into the country’s advantages as an export-manufacturing hub.
• The rupee remains an outlier: While most Asian currencies have strengthened against the dollar in 2025, the INR (along with the Indonesian rupiah) has not.

MEANWHILE- India likely grew 7.3% in the fiscal second quarter (July–September), according to a Reuters poll of economists. Public spending and rural demand are doing the heavy lifting while private investment remains soft. The official growth figure for 1Q was 7.8%.

Watch this space: Official GDP data is due out this coming Friday.

#2- India Inc saw steady growth momentum in 2Q FY 2025-26, with aggregate sales of listed non-financial companies rising 8% y-o-y, supported by stronger performance in manufacturing and services, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The central bank’s quarterly dataset covering nearly 3.1k firms shows that manufacturing, IT, and non-IT services all posted y-o-y gains, driven by a pickup in domestic demand.

BY THE NUMBERS — 2Q snapshot:

• Operating income improved across major sectors. Manufacturing firms posted 10.6% y-o-y operating-income growth, while IT companies recorded 7.7%. Non-IT services saw a softer rise of 6.5% due to higher cost pressures.
• Aggregate sales grew 8% y-o-y for non-government, non-financial companies. Manufacturing revenue grew 8.5%, IT services 7.8%, and non-IT services 10.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand.
• Input and staff costs increased, rising 9.2% for manufacturers, 6% for IT companies, and 8.9% for non-IT service providers. Manufacturers saw a 9% y-o-y uptick in raw materials expenses.

#3- India and the European Union are poised to conclude a long-discussed trade agreement at a summit in New Delhi on 27 January, Press Trust of India reports, citing what it said were diplomatic officials. The two sides will also ink a defense framework and a new strategic agenda.

Driving the agenda: Both sides are looking for supply-chain predictability amid tariff-driven trade disruptions and a more volatile global environment. Brussels sees India as a critical partner for global governance at a time when the US is increasingly inward-focused. With the EU’s goods trade with India already at USD 134 bn in 2023, the FTA is expected to significantly expand bilateral trade flows.

MEANWHILE- India and Canada earlier this week kicked off talks on a comprehensive economic partnership. The previous Canadian government put trade talks on pause in 2023 as it launched an investigation into the killing of a Canadian Sikh separatist. India has denied involvement.

#4- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) looks set to declare that New Delhi has its thumb on the FX scale, changing its classification of India’s exchange-rate regime in a report due out today, Business Standard reports. The fund is expected to find that India’s currency management shows elements of a crawling-peg system. The INR weakened about 4% against the USD this year.

The Reserve Bank of India has pushed back against the IMF’s assessment, arguing that the central bank’s interventions are aimed at limiting volatility rather than fixing the INR against the USD. The IMF classified India’s exchange-rate regime as a “stabilized arrangement” in its 2023 report and maintained it in 2024.

#5- Bharati Airtel subsidiary to see UAE listing: Airtel Money, the mobile unit of London- and Lagos-listed telecom player Airtel Africa, has gotten a regulatory waiver from the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority to pursue a listing in the Emirates. Indian telecom giant Bharti Airtel owns a majority stake in Airtel Africa.

The IPO could fetch around USD 1 bn in proceeds as Airtel Money seeks a USD 4 bn valuation in a transaction that could happen as early as 1H 2026. It would mark the UAE’s first African equity listing as the Emirates looks to attract foreign issuers. Airtel Money had also been weighing London and other European exchanges.

Bankers say the IPO will likely hinge on landing a heavyweight Emirati cornerstone investor, which would determine whether the stock lands on the DFM or ADX. Domestic UAE demand for the offer is expected to be thin given Airtel’s lack of UAE ties, despite some minority shareholders being based out of Abu Dhabi.

Airtel Money is a cash machine: It booked USD 623 mn in revenues in 1H 2025 with a nearly 52% EBITDA margin.

ADVISORS- Airtel Money started meeting bankers in September but has so-far counts only Citi as mandated global coordinator.

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DATA POINTS-

India is now among the world’s top three quick-commerce markets, behind China and the US, Business Standard reports, citing projections from Statista. Revenues in India’s quick-commerce sector are expected to double to USD 11 bn by 2030 as user numbers rise and platforms expand into more cities.

By the numbers: India is forecast to post a 15.5% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, outpacing China at 7.9% and the US at 6.72%, making it the fastest-growing among the top three markets.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Bengaluru is hosting the Global Capabilities Centre Conclave at Sheraton Whitefield.

MARKET WATCH-

More Murban is heading to India as refineries scramble to replace Russian barrels. State-run MRPL and HPCL have together booked mns of barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for December / January loading to plug supply gaps.

• Tighter bank scrutiny and looming EU sanctions are forcing the shift, with India’s Russian crude imports on track to hit a three-year low of 600–650k bbl per day in December.
• Middle East producers are capturing the spillover, with MRPL also securing Basra Medium to diversify its intake.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

US markets extended their rally yesterday as traders figured new US economic data — including soft retail sales and lower consumer confidence in September — strengthened the case for a third rate cut next month. The Dow closed up 1.43%, while the S&P 500 was up 0.91%. Meanwhile, Nasdaq’s gains were limited to 0.67% on a 2.6% decline in Nvidia over Google competition fears. (Reuters | Financial Times | CNN)

IN GEOPOLITICS- A-US backed peace framework won Ukraine’s support after a few days of intense negotiations, with “only a few remaining points of disagreement,” according to US President Donald Trump. The amended proposal is unlikely to appeal to Moscow, which appears unlikely to compromise on its goal of solidifying territorial gains. (CNN | Reuters | CNBC)

Also worth knowing about on this late-fall morning:

• Trump’s Genesis Mission will build a digital platform to concentrate scientific data and pave the way for using AI in engineering, energy and national security. (Associated Press)
• An Ethiopian volcano eruption sent ashes all the way to New Delhi. (BBC)