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Wednesday, 25 Mar 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Energy
Ipo Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Calendar

Modi readies India for economic fallout

Today at a glance

1

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Modi urges calm as economic cracks begin to show.
2

ENERGY

Reliance breaks the ice on Iranian crude.
3

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India denies paying transit levy to Iran to pass Hormuz.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Trump dials Modi to discuss war and Hormuz.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India extends the UAE gold quota under CEPA.
6

IPO WATCH

Mubadala-backed Manipal Health files IPO.
7

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Hopes of de-escalation breathe life into Indian equities.
8

PLANET FINANCE

War is casting a dark shadow over PMIs.

Wednesday, 25 Mar 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Energy
Ipo Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India denies paying Hormuz levy; extends UAE gold quota

Good afternoon, friends, and happy hump day. In today’s busy issue, we lead with PM Narendra Modi’s speech to the Indian parliament on the fallout of the war with Iran.

Energy remains our big theme today as Reliance Industries picked up 5 mn barrels of Iranian crude. On the gas front, India’s policy moves are geared toward long-term solutions in the absence of credible alternative supply sources outside the GCC.

Plus, some good news: Mubadala-backed Manipal Health has filed for an IPO to raise USD 1.17 bn. Also, Indian equities rebounded significantly on hopes of the conflict concluding soon.

Watch this space

LOGISTICS — India and Iran shut down rumors of a USD 2 mn Hormuz transit toll: India’s Shipping Ministry firmly rejected reports that India-bound vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be subjected to a transit levy, Business Standard reports.

Where did the rumor come from? Media reports recently quoted Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi as saying that merchant vessels were being charged USD 2 mn for safe passage through the conflict-hit region.

The official line: The Iranian Embassy in India quickly moved to quash the rumors on Monday, saying in a statement that the lawmaker’s comments were “unfounded.” The mission clarified that the statements reflected personal views and did not represent the official position of Iran. A senior Indian official in the Ministry of Shipping reaffirmed that the critical maritime chokepoint is governed by international conventions ensuring freedom of navigation and called the reports about the levy “baseless.”

More Indian vessels transiting Hormuz soon? The Indian government is seeking clearance for six more Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) carriers. However, Indian authorities have not given any details on when the ships will start sailing. Last week, we reported that India had stepped up its diplomatic efforts for the passage of tankers carrying 270k tonnes of LPG through the strait. As of today, at least four India-bound vessels have managed to cross Hormuz following high-level diplomatic talks, while 22 others remain stranded at sea.

TRADING — India extends UAE gold imports quota amid trade disruptions: India has extended the validity of low tariff rate quota authorizations for gold imports from the UAE until 30 June from its original 31 March deadline, Reuters reports, citing India’s Foreign Trade Directorate General.

What this means: The measure falls under the UAE-India CEPA and will be automatically applied to all authorizations issued in FY 2025-26. Importers won’t have to submit new applications or pay additional fees.

IN CONTEXT- Gold supply chains are among the many that have been disrupted by the war. Earlier in the conflict, there were reports of rerouting gold flows to other refinery destinations further out of the direct line of fire. However, rerouting is likely to come with a heftier price tag, which could help Dubai remain a top pick for refining.

Data point

USD 26.18 bn — that’s the value of India’s gems and jewelry exports in FY 2026 up to February. The UAE has overtaken the US as the largest export market for India, accounting for 32.7% of total exports. Nearly half of India’s gems and precious stones come from the Emirates, while 23% of its gold comes from there.

Middle East conflict threatens India’s jewelry exports: The sector is already struggling to keep its head above water following the imposition of US tariffs, with overall export growth flatlining in FY 2026 compared to the previous fiscal year.

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Sign of the Times

DIPLOMACY — US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the war and its impact on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a post on X. Modi emphasized that the critical maritime chokepoint must remain “open, secure, and accessible” to ensure global economic stability.

Ruffling feathers in New Delhi: The conversation marks their first known exchange since the war began. India’s archrival, Pakistan, has begun positioning itself as a potential diplomatic broker between Washington and Tehran to help de-escalate the ongoing hostilities. Islamabad’s sudden emergence as a diplomatic go-between is causing unease in some circles in India. Indian analyst Brahma Chellaney has dubbed the call between Modi and Trump as “damage control” in a post on X, adding that Trump is undermining his “friend” Modi.

The big story abroad

In what would be a major escalation, the Pentagon is reportedly expected to dispatch thousands of soldiers to the region and potentially inside Iranian territory. The number of troops reportedly ranges from 2k to 3k soldiers from the US Army’s Airborne Division.

Meanwhile, Iran says Strait of Hormuz is open: Tehran said that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz “in coordination with Iranian authorities,” in a letter to International Maritime Organization members. That said, some 3.2k vessels remain stuck in the Arabian Gulf, seemingly unwilling to brave the waterway yet.

Mediators from Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan want to set up talks between the US and Iran by Thursday, though a diplomatic divide remains between Washington and Tehran, the Wall Street Journal reports.

And in the world of AI: ChatGPT maker OpenAI is shuttering its video generation offering Sora just six months after its debut in a bid to streamline its products. The company positioned the program as a means to create lifelike AI-generated videos within a community-focused environment. Available on the Apple App Store without charge, Sora has seen its popularity decline since its debut.

Market watch

CAPITAL MARKETS — Hope of US-Iran diplomacy is breathing life into Indian markets: India’s benchmark indices surged on Wednesday following reports that the US has pitched a 15-point plan to Tehran for a month-long ceasefire, raising optimism that the conflict could soon see a de-escalation.

The numbers: The Nifty 50 climbed 2.2% while the BSE Sensex added 2.1% by mid-day trading. The two indices have declined up to 8% in the last 30 days. If the momentum holds, it will mark the second consecutive day of gains for the benchmarks. The rally was broad-based, with 15 of the 16 major sectors trading in the green.

The conflict-driven volatility has taken a heavy toll on foreign investment in recent weeks. Foreign investors have dumped a staggering USD 11.3 bn worth of Indian equities so far in March, setting the stage for the highest monthly sell-off on record.

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Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Modi urges calm as Iran conflict bites, but economic cracks begin to show

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is looking to calm market jitters over fuel supplies as the economic shockwaves from the regional war begin to ripple through the Indian economy.

The war has created “unprecedented economic, national security, and humanitarian pressures” for India, he told the parliament, while cautioning that the adverse effects of the war will last for a prolonged period. He compared the scale of the upcoming challenges to the COVID-19 pandemic and urged national and state authorities to tackle them in tandem.

Modi highlighted that strong macroeconomic fundamentals are able to withstand the challenges, while noting that the government has made arrangements to secure energy and fertilizer supplies to deal with the shortages.

Buffering shocks: India currently holds about 5.3 mn tonnes of strategic crude reserves and is working to expand capacity to 6.5 mn tonnes, Modi said while highlighting the diplomatic efforts to secure passage of India-bound cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. India has diversified its energy import base from 27 to 41 countries over the past 11 years, while scaling up domestic buffers including higher ethanol blending, renewable energy capacity, and coal output, he said.

Counterview: Despite these assurances, India’s crude reserves of 5.3 mn tonnes are enough to cover five days of demand at current levels, according to the government's own admission. India's crude imports were already down about 23% y-o-y between 1 and 18 March. A prolonged conflict will impact India’s growth forecast, increase inflation and further reduce the value of the INR.

Impact on growth

India’s GDP forecast slashed: Goldman Sachs has cut its 2026 growth forecast for India by 60 bps to 5.9%, marking the first major downward revision by a global agency since the Middle East conflict began. The firm had already trimmed its pre-war projection of 7% down to 6.5% on 13 March, but increased concerns over energy availability have forced a deeper cut, Hindu Businessline reports.

The pattern: The change in forecast is driven by rising oil prices and increased energy supply disruption through Hormuz. The bank expects India’s inflation to expand to 4.6%, up from its earlier projection of 3.9% for 2026. It also expects the central bank to hike the repo rate by 50 bps to offset inflationary pressures posed by a deprecating INR, which has fallen 4% against the USD this year.

PMI at a three-year low

India’s private sector expanded at its weakest pace in over three years in March as price shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran dampened domestic demand, according to HSBC India’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. The preliminary PMI slumped to 56.5 this month, falling well below the median forecast of 59.0 and dropping from February’s reading of 58.9.

Manufacturing took the hardest hit: The manufacturing output was at its lowest rate in over four years as the regional war stoked market instability, rising input costs, and consumer uncertainty. The services industry, which contributes to a major part of India’s GDP, also declined, with its PMI easing to 57.2 from 58.1 in February.

Inflationary pressures are mounting: Input costs for oil, energy, food, aluminum, steel, and chemicals rose at their fastest pace since June 2022, highlighting the growing fallout from the war. “Cost pressures intensified, but companies are absorbing part of the increase by squeezing margins,” HSBC's chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari said.

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3

ENERGY

Reliance breaks the ice on Iranian crude

India’s largest refiner, Reliance Industries, has purchased 5 mn barrels of Iranian crude from the National Iranian Oil Co. under a temporary US sanctions waiver that allows delivery of cargoes already at sea, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. The purchase marks India’s first import of Iranian crude since May 2019, when imports were halted following the reimposition of US sanctions.

The cargo was priced at a premium of about USD 7 / bbl to ICE Brent futures, implying an additional cost of roughly USD 35 mn. The US sanctions waiver applies to Iranian crude loaded on or before 20 March and discharged by 19 April, limiting eligible transactions to cargoes already in transit. The move comes as Indian refiners have been diversifying sourcing, including securing more than 60 mn barrels of Russian crude for April delivery under a similar sanctions waiver.

Our take: While other Indian refiners are also keen to buy Iranian Oil, Reliance has shown agility in its purchases in recent weeks. It was among the first Indian refiners to pick up Venezuelan barrels after the US government allowed such sales. Reliance also picked up 6 mn barrels of Russian crude immediately after the US sanctions waiver. Reliance’s complex refinery ecosystem allows it to process crude oil from varied sources, which aids its quick decision making. The conglomerate has also found a place in the good books of the Donald Trump administration with its partnership to set up a refinery complex in Texas.

Accelerating LPG storage and distribution infrastructure

India’s state-run energy marketing companies are moving to expand liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict begin to strain supplies of cooking fuel, prompting a renewed focus on building buffer capacity, Hindu Businessline reports.

Storage build-out: Indian refiners and fuel retailers — including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation — are assessing additional underground storage options, particularly cavern-based facilities, as part of efforts to reduce exposure to supply disruptions and shipping risks affecting LPG imports.

Limited buffers: India’s existing LPG cavern capacity is about 140k tonnes across facilities in Mangaluru and Visakhapatnam. With imports meeting roughly 60% of demand — a large share of which is sourced from the GCC — the current disruption has highlighted constraints in storage coverage for a fuel used by more than 300 mn households.

Stepping in to accelerate natural gas pipelines: Amid the war, the government has unveiled a streamlined regulatory framework to speed up natural gas pipeline development, introducing time-bound approvals and a unified process to cut delays in infrastructure rollout, according to a press release.

Clearing the path for expansion: The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has invoked its emergency powers, establishing a unified framework for laying, operating, and expanding pipelines. The primary goal is to speed up the construction of trunk pipelines and city gas distribution networks, ultimately driving the wider adoption of piped natural gas (PNG) across key sectors. To smooth the way, the framework scraps ad hoc levies, eases compliance burdens, and establishes clear compensation guidelines to minimize right-of-way disputes with landowners.

Our take: While India is tapping alternative sources — from Iran to Russia — to bolster its crude oil supplies, its gas supplies remain vulnerable in the absence of reliable alternative sources. The Gulf region accounts for the bulk of India’s LPG imports, leaving the availability of domestic cooking gas susceptible to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The government and energy firms are now implementing much-needed long-term measures to brace for future impacts. However, these moves also indicate that the government's policy options are limited — without unhindered access to Hormuz, the crisis in gas markets is unlikely to be resolved.

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4

IPO WATCH

Mubadala-backed Manipal Health files IPO

Mubadala Investment Company-backed Indian hospital operator Manipal Health Enterprises has filed draft papers for a USD 1.17 bn IPO, according to a regulatory filing. Mubadala, alongside two other funds, purchased a minority stake of 8% in Manipal Health from Singapore’s SWF Temasek holdings in 2024 for an undisclosed amount.

Offer structure: The filing comprises a fresh issue of up to INR 80 bn (USD 852 mn) alongside an offer for sale of 43.2 mn shares by existing investors — Temasek, US private equity TPG, and Denmark’s Novo Holdings. Mubadala will not be selling any of its stake during the IPO. Existing investors are putting some 320 mn worth shares for sale, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. The company may also consider a pre-IPO placement of up to INR 16 bn (USD 190 mn), in consultation with the book running lead managers.

Use of proceeds: Proceeds from the issue will be used to repay borrowings and fund the acquisition of hospital chain Sahyadri Hospital, valued at about USD 700 mn. The remainder will go toward general corporate purposes.

Who are they? Bengaluru-based Manipal Hospital is India’s leading multi-speciality chain, operating 49 hospitals with 12k beds across India. It has expanded through acquisitions of other hospitals including Columbia Asia, AMRI Hospitals, and Medica Synergie, and is now eyeing Sahyadri Hospitals.

Advisers: Kotak Mahindra Capital, Axis Capital, Goldman Sachs Securities, Jefferies India, JP Morgan India, UBS Securities India, and DBS Bank India are acting as book running lead managers to the issue, while KFin Technologies is the registrar.

Market context: The filing comes as foreign investors have pulled over USD 11 bn from Indian equities so far in 2026 amid global risk-off sentiment.

Coming up in the IPO pipeline: Encube Ethicals

Failed M&A to IPO: Mumbai-based pharma company Encube Ethicals is planning an IPO to raise USD 400 mn, after its efforts to sell a majority stake to a consortium led by Mubadala Investment Company and Warburg Pincus failed, Bloomberg reports, citing sources in the know. Dubai’s Gulf Islamic Investments and Singaporean private equity Quadria Capital hold a minority stake in Encube Ethicals, according to Traxcn.

The Warburg-Mubadala duo were frontrunners to acquire a 74% stake in the company at a valuation of USD 1.8 bn last month — however, promoters and Quadria Capital were eyeing a USD 2 bn valuation. Quadria is keen to sell a part of its stake through the public offering, which explains the quick shift to the IPO plans, according to Economic Times.

Onward to IPO: The pharma firm has appointed JM Financial and JPMorgan Chase as advisers for its listing and plans to enlist more banks in the coming days. The listing is expected in early 2027.

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5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

SK Minerals eyes JVs in Saudi, Japan, South Korea to scale exports

India-based specialty chemicals manufacturer SK Minerals & Additives is exploring joint ventures or strategic tie-ups with companies in Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea to scale its no-halogen flame retardant business and expand overseas sales, Hindu Businessline reports. Through these partnerships, the firm is seeking access to technical expertise and marketing support to meet international product standards while expanding exports to new markets in the Middle East, Europe, and the US.

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6

PLANET FINANCE

War is casting a dark shadow over PMIs

The proof is in the PMI: Purchasing Managers’ Indexes across Europe and Asia for this month are the latest evidence of the global economic slowdown caused by the regional war, according to a spate of recent reports from across the world.

Private sector activity in the eurozone (pdf) dropped to a 10-month low in March, with the composite PMI falling to 50.5 from 51.9 in February, barely above the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction. The reading fell short of economists polled by Reuters, who had penciled in 51.

A closer look: Manufacturing held up slightly better, but services are starting to stall. Some of the strength in manufacturing was chalked down to frontloading orders to beat future supply chain issues, which could lead to weaker data later on, S&P director and economist Phil Smith told Morningstar.

Results are similarly bleak elsewhere: Australia’s PMI saw a sudden contraction, while business confidence in Japan (pdf) dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year. India (pdf) registered its weakest growth since 2022 as war-driven inflation bites, and the UK’s (pdf) private sector activity came in at its lowest level in six months.

As expected, energy volatility is primarily behind the results. Companies are reporting the fastest rise in input costs in three years, as attacks on oil infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz disruption propel the energy sector into panic. Rising oil prices are pushing up costs for businesses, disrupting supply chains, and feeding through into inflation, with supplier delays also increasing sharply due to shipping disruptions.

Yet again, it’s another symptom of stagflation as slow economic growth colludes with inflation. The phenomenon has already hit the bond market, wiping USD 2.5 tn off global bond values and making investors think twice about where to hedge their bets.

Where do we go from here? In short, everything depends on how long the war lasts. While indicators pointed to global growth gathering momentum pre-war, the conflict has turned predictions on their head, Director of Global Economics at Bloomberg Jamie Rush said. Even if a ceasefire is agreed tomorrow, the damage is already done, with a European Central Bank statement pointing to higher inflation risks and slower economic growth.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets were a sea of green in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi leading gains — both were up around 2.5% — as hopes that the US-Iran war will soon conclude drove the rally.

Sensex

75,381

+1.7% (YTD: -11.4%)

NIFTY 50

23,324

+1.8% (YTD: -11.9%)

ADX

9,707

+1.9% (YTD: -2.8%)

DFM

5,677

+3.7% (YTD: -5.9%)

Tadawul

11,083

+1.2% (YTD: +5.4%)

EGX30

47,553

+1.3% (YTD: +13.6%)

Boursa Kuwait

7,817

+0.5% (YTD: -5.8%)

QSE

10,248

+0.9% (YTD: -4.7%)

S&P 500

6,556

-0.3% (YTD: -4.2%)

FTSE 100

10,067

+1.03% (YTD: 0.3%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,673

+1.6% (YTD: -2.4%)

Brent crude

USD 98

-5.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.90

-1.3%

Gold

USD 4,556

+3.2%

BTC

USD 71,226

-0.1%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

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CALENDAR

MARCH

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft 2026: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PLASTIWORLD India 2026, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

27-29 March (Friday-Sunday): Vizag International SME Business Expo, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

  • Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

6-8 April (Monday-Wednesday): Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo 2026, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

16-17 April (Thursday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit 2026, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX 2026, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave 2025, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

MAY

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo 2026, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat 2026, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans) 2026, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week 2026, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex 2026, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest 2026, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference 2026, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star 2026, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

  • Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi is expected to be held between July-August. Dates yet to be announced.
  • Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle. Dates yet to be announced.
  • India Mobile Congress 2026, New Delhi will likely be held in October. Dates yet to be announced.
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