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Mandatory smartphone app deletable after all?

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Mandatory app order draws industry objections + IOC, BPCL secure additional Russian shipments

Good morning, friends. It’s a particularly busy morning on the MENA-India corridor, with piles of IPO news on both sides, macro-economic soup to consume as monthly reports come tumbling in, and a flap over New Delhi’s bid to force global smartphone makers to install a mandatory government app.

AND- Indian companies are still piling into the Gulf. Our friends at Stride Capital are pushing ahead with a plan to hit USD 500 mn in AUM, they tell us in an exclusive interview. Meanwhile, automaker Ashok Leyland is opening a wholly-owned Saudi unit and fashion platform Myntra is moving back into the UAE after success in Singapore.

^^ We have all of that and more, below.

THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME-

The Indian government’s “undeletable” app may be deletable after all. The Modi government appeared towalk back a requirement that smartphones make a new mandatory government app “undeletable,” bowing to industry pressure and privacy concerns just days after the initial directive surfaced. The story dominates coverage of India in the global business press this morning.

The reversal: Communications Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia clarified that while manufacturers must still preload the state-owned Sanchar Saathi cybersecurity app, users are free to delete it. “Keeping it in their devices or not is up to the user,” Scindia said, explicitly contradicting an earlier directive that the measure would require devicemakers to ensure “no disabling or restriction” of the app’s features. The ministry is also requiring devicemakers push the app out to existing users through software updates.

Watch this space: While Scindia’s remarks overnight were designed to tamp-down the controversy, the government hadn’t (as of our dispatch time this morning) released an amended executive order, nor has it issued new guidelines.

This likely heads off a showdown with Big Tech. Apple was reportedly preparing to resist the original order, with sources telling Reuters the company planned to argue that mandatory, non-removable third-party software violated its global security protocols. The mandate applies to all major players in the Indian market, including Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo, who now have 90 days to push the app to devices.

Why the panic? Privacy advocates and opposition parties had flagged the move as a potential step toward state surveillance, arguing the directive was issued without consultation and could introduce security vulnerabilities.

The government’s defense: Scindia insists the app is strictly a “citizen safety tool” designed to curb cybercrime, citing data that the platform has already helped block some 620k fraud-linked IMEIs and recover thousands of lost phones.

Our take: This was a trial balloon that popped. New Delhi attempted to assert digital sovereignty over hardware — a growing trend in emerging markets — but underestimated the ferocity of the privacy backlash. By pivoting to “voluntary,” the government saves face: It keeps its app on mns of screens by default (relying on user inertia to keep it there) without forcing a legal battle with Apple that could have embarrassed the administration.

Why it matters: India is one of the few markets big enough to try to bully Big Tech — but there are limits. While the EU forces changes through antitrust legislation (like USB-C ports or alternative app stores), India often uses direct executive fiat. This episode draws a line in the sand: Preloading is acceptable; locking the software in is not.

What’s next? The rollout begins. Manufacturers must now integrate Sanchar Saathi into their builds within three months. Watch closely to see if Apple isolates the app within a sandbox to prevent it from accessing broader system data, regardless of whether users choose to keep it.

The story is everywhere this morning, from Bloomberg and Reuters to the New York Times.

MENA THIS MORNING-

Among the stories making headlines in the Middle East this morning, from our UAE, Saudi, and Egypt editions:

Saudi Arabia will continue spending through the dip. Despite pulling back from the excesses of Neom and The Line, the Kingdom isn’t tapping the brakes: Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan’s FY2026 budget projects an SAR 165 bn (USD 44 bn) deficit to sustain the diversification drive; Saudi National Bank is seeking USD 1 bn to bolster its balance sheet — partly from Asian lenders — to help fund the vision. The IPO window remains open, with education play Almasar bucking the trend of recent lackluster market debuts: It popped 18% on its first day of trading. The question remains: Can liquidity support the 100+ firms in the pipeline — let alone back them in the aftermarket — if Saudi firms can’t attract institutional capital?

The UAE is doubling down on future-proofing. Back from the national holiday, the Emirates continues its pivot to tech, joining a US-led summit on AI supply chains next week. The non-oil economy grew 5.7% in 1H 2025, driving Abu Dhabi inflation to a 20-month high as talent floods the capital.

Corridor Signal: India’s Stride Ventures is capitalizing on this growth, securing commitments for its ADGM fund to deploy capital into UAE and Saudi startups.

AND- UAE and Saudi equity markets were both down for the month of November.

Egypt stabilizes. Net foreign assets climbed to USD 22.7 bn in October, signaling improved liquidity on the back of strong remittances and foreign portfolio inflows. Meanwhile, a French-Egyptian consortium landed the EUR 540 mn Cairo-Alexandria freight railway, boosting the country’s logistics ambitions.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Meesho IPO kicks off today: The SoftBank-backed e-commerce unicorn hits the market looking to raise INR 54 bn (c. USD 640 mn), with a price band set at INR 105-111 per share.

Meesho is a “value commerce” marketplace that connects suppliers of unbranded goods — mostly fashion and home accessories — with budget-conscious shoppers in India’s Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities, originally gaining fame for its reseller model.

Why it matters: This is the biggest test yet for India’s mass-market thesis. With a valuation of c. USD 6 bn, Meesho is betting its grip on the “next bn users” can hold off Amazon and Flipkart. Anchor investors — including Fidelity and BlackRock — like its chances: They already snapped up INR 24 bn worth of shares yesterday, signaling strong institutional appetite as the company’s losses continue to narrow.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in New Delhi tomorrow for a two-day state visit, his first to India since the start of the Ukraine war. He’s expected to pitch Russian crude as well as military equipment including missile systems and fighter jets to Indian buyers, according to Reuters.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The INR crossed the psychologically important mark of 90 to the greenback this morning on the back of weak foreign inflows, hitting a new record-low 90.14 to the USD.


[wwtt4] #2- Adani plots USD 15 bn airport expansion. The conglomerate plans to invest the funds over five years to boost capacity to 200 mn passengers annually ahead of a planned IPO for the unit. The roadmap includes major upgrades at Navi Mumbai and hubs including Ahmedabad and Jaipur, positioning Adani to capture two-thirds of India’s projected 2030 air traffic.

Speaking of aviation: India’s aviation regulator has grounded an Air India aircraft and launched an investigation after the carrier operated the jet with an expired airworthiness review certificate, Reuters reports. The Airbus A320 had flown eight times after its certificate had lapsed.


#3- IOC + BPCL load up on Russian crude: State refiners Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have snapped up additional Russian shipments for January, capitalizing on widening discounts vs Gulf crude and better availability from non-sanctioned tankers, Bloomberg reports.

Why it matters: The discount is back. Indian buying cooled when the price advantage over Middle East grades narrowed, but with the spread reportedly widening again to c. USD 5 per barrel (up from USD 3), state refiners are proving that price — not politics — is the policy that matters.


#4- India plans to raise the minimum efficiency requirement for solar modules used in government-supported and grid-connected projects beginning 1 January 2027, according to a draft notification issued by the New and Renewable Energy Ministry. The requirement would make a significant part of existing manufacturing capacity obsolete, with production lines that produce lower-efficiency modules being forced to shift to next-gen technologies, Bloomberg reports, quoting energy experts.

The proposal comes amid a rapidly expanding domestic manufacturing base and oversupply concerns, with industry analyses estimating that module capacity in India could exceed 120-150 GW by 2025, according to Economic Times.


#5- Adia + ICD back VC fund: Bengaluru-based VC firm Fireside Ventures has raised INR 22.65 bn (USD 250 mn) for its fourth fund from a mix of global and domestic investors including the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Investment Corporation of Dubai, Fidelity International, and US university endowments, Reuters reports.

Background: Founded in 2017, Fireside now manages USD 650 mn across four funds with a portfolio of over 60 consumer brands including Mamaearth, boAt, and the Sleep Company, as per the newswire.

DATA POINT-

Speaking of venture capital: Indian VC and private equity shops had a busy October, closing 102 transactions, a 9% increase over the same period a year ago, according to IVCA-EY’s latest report (pdf).

Where money flowed:

  • The biggest share of October’s PE and VC inflows came from private investments in public equity deals, which totalled INR 175 bn (USD 2.1 bn).
  • Startup funding was the next-largest category at INR 167 bn (USD 2 bn), recording a 175% surge y-o-y.

Fast fact: Nine large transactions worth INR 309 bn (USD 3.7 bn) accounted for roughly 70% of total inflows, including Abu Dhabi-based International Holding Company’s INR 83 bn (USD 1 bn) purchase of a 43.46% stake in Sammaan Capital.

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MUST VISIT-

The Qatar Foundation has launched the world’s first museum dedicated to India’s pioneering modernist painter MF Hussain, setting a significant milestone in the late artist’s global resurgence. The Lawh Wa Qalam Museum in Doha houses more than 150 of Hussain’s works, including his final Arab Civilization series, created in exile while in Qatar, alongside personal objects and rarely seen early pieces from India. Unveiled with a facade-scale projection of his most iconic motifs, the museum realized Hussain’s 2008 blueprint for a space that would preserve both his Indian and Arab legacies.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Russian President Vladimir Putin met US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow to discuss ways to end the war in Ukraine. Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov described the discussions as “constructive” but said much work remains. The meeting followed US consultations with Ukrainian officials in recent weeks to revise a 28-point peace proposal criticized for favoring Moscow. (Reuters | BBC | Axios | New York Times | CNN | Washington Post)

In Washington, US President Donald Trump said he will announce his nominee for Federal Reserve chair in early 2026, naming White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett as a leading contender to replace Jay Powell when his term ends in May. Trump said the search, which once included about ten candidates, is now “down to one,” though final interviews with senior officials will continue in the coming weeks. The president reiterated his criticism of Powell for not cutting interest rates fast enough. (Financial Times | Reuters | Bloomberg)

Meanwhile in crypto markets, BTC climbed back above the USD 90k mark, rebounding after a steep selloff, Bloomberg reports. The recovery came after the Securities and Exchange Commission signaled plans for an “innovation exemption” for digital asset firms and Vanguard announced it would allow trading of crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds on its platform. Despite the recovery, sentiment remains fragile with traders staying cautious ahead of next week’s Fed rate decision.

MARKET WATCH-

Foreign portfolio investors withdrew INR 37.6 bn (USD 420 mn) from Indian equities in November, reversing October’s net inflows and reflecting a broader risk-off mood, according to data from National Securities and Depositories. The pullback followed three months of heavy selling in July-September amid uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline, a stronger USD, and geopolitical tensions. Sectoral pressure in IT services, consumer services, and healthcare deepened the caution, analysts told The Hindu.

A late-November rally pushed Nifty and Sensex to new records, which, alongside stronger 2Q earnings, has lifted sentiment. December investment flows will depend on US interest rate signals and progress on the India-US trade pact. So far in 2025, FPIs have pulled INR 1.43 tn (USD 16.04 bn) from equities, while adding USD 90 mn to debt under the general route and withdrawing USD 60 mn through the voluntary retention window.

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INVESTMENT WATCH

India’s Stride Ventures is expanding in the Gulf, targeting USD 500 mn in AUM

Stride Ventures expands in GCC: India-based venture debt firm Stride Ventures is expanding its GCC activity, with plans to grow its regional assets under management to about USD 500 mn by 2028. Deployment will be prioritized in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Fariha Ansari Javed, partner for GCC and global capital formation at Stride, told EnterpriseAM in an interview.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

The firm has raised about USD 300 mn in institutional commitments toward its funds in India, the UAE, and the UK, with a planned global close of USD 600 mn. This includes an ADGM Fund V for which Stride announced a first close earlier this year. The raise is backed by sovereign wealth funds, global banks, asset managers, treasuries, and ins. firms.

What’s driving deployment? “The India-GCC corridor is evolving into a two-way flow of capital and operational scale, marking a shift from unilateral investment to cross-border expansion,” Javed said. Indian companies are entering Saudi Arabia and the UAE to tap into larger-ticket sizes driven by stronger unit economics and policy support. A growing base of Gulf-based startups is “leveraging India for technology, talent, and cost-efficient scaling,” while adopting India-style playbooks in FinTech, logistics, SaaS, proptech, and B2B SaaS.

Stride focuses on high-growth, asset-light, tech-enabled businesses by leveraging Indian experience and applying it in the GCC with regional nuances — “where India’s operating depth combines with the GCC’s capital availability and regulatory momentum,” Javed told us.

Partnership with SAB: Earlier this year, Stride partnered with Saudi Awwal Bank’s investment arm SAB Invest, which Javed described as a “cornerstone of its broader GCC strategy.” The move “combines SAB Invest’s best in class asset management platform and deep understanding of the Saudi market with Stride’s global venture and growth debt expertise,” she added. The partnership has already begun deploying credit in high growth startups and SMEs in the kingdom with shariah-compliant structures.

Stride intends to commit about USD 500 mn in Saudi Arabia by 2028, with selective exposure to Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain through partnerships rather than standalone vehicles, while maintaining a sector-agnostic approach, Javed said. The firm plans to enhance its scale in the UAE and Saudi Arabia in 2026 to mature its platform with an eye on other GCC markets.

Changing dynamics across the Gulf and India: Equity markets have turned far more selective globally, reshaping founder behaviour across both India and the GCC, Javed told us. “India is a mature and expanding venture debt market, with annual issuance of over USD 1 bn. As founders optimize dilution and preserve runway, venture debt has shifted from being a supplementary product to a core part of capital planning,” she said. In the Gulf, she sees a strong pivot towards on-balance and off-balance sheet structures driven by preference for non-dilutive capital and by the region’s deep liquidity.

Active agreement pipelines are concentrated in fintech, SaaS, healthcare, logistics, climate, and energy transition, and ticket sizes in the Gulf are significantly larger than in India, with on-balance sheet transactions averaging USD 20 mn and off-balance sheet SPV structures exceeding USD 50 mn.

IN CONTEXT- The GCC has accelerated reforms and seen a rise in private credit and alternative finance, making the region an increasingly attractive hub for structured financing vehicles, according to a State Street Global Advisors report. Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation under Saudi Vision 2030 and regulatory frameworks in financial centers like Abu Dhabi Global Market and Dubai International Financial Center have helped reposition the Gulf as a capital-markets and private-credit hub.

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ECONOMY

Industrial output growth slows in October, FDI gains momentum in 1H

If it’s the first of the month, it’s time for a hearty helping of macro indicator soup. We’ve got the rundown for you below on everything from industrial output to the PMI, FDI and more. Up first:

Industrial output

India’s industrial output growth slowed significantly to 0.4% in October from 4% in September this year due to fewer working days during the festival-heavy month, data (pdf) from the Statistics Ministry shows. This marks a 3.5 percentage point slowdown in growth compared to October 2024.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

A tale of two trends: Output of infrastructure and construction goods rose 7.1%, capital goods gained 2.4%, and intermediate goods edged up 0.9%. But primary goods contracted 0.6%, consumer durables fell 0.5%, and consumer non-durables dropped 4.4%, indicating weaker discretionary and essentials demand.

Sectorally, manufacturing grew 1.8% on the back of basic metals (6.6%), refined petroleum (6.2%), and motor vehicles (5.8%). Mining declined 1.8%, while electricity output fell 6.9% amid cooler weather and extended rains. Industrial output grew 2.7% in April-October, supported by 3.9% manufacturing growth, flat electricity generation, and a 1.9% mining contraction.

PMI-

India’s manufacturing momentum cooled sharply in November, with the HSBC-S&P Global PMI falling to 56.6 from 59.2 — a nine-month low and below the flash estimate, Reuters reports. The index stayed above 50.0, indicating expansion, but output and new orders saw their weakest growth since February. This deceleration was mainly due to US punitive tariffs, which curbed demand and delayed projects.

Export orders slowed to their weakest rise in over a year, coinciding with a nearly 9% y-o-y drop in US shipments and contributing to a record trade deficit. Business confidence slid to its lowest since mid-2022 as firms faced stiffer competition and decelerated hiring, the newswire added. Moderating input costs provided some relief, with output charges at their weakest since March.

FDI-

Foreign direct investment was up 18% y-o-y in 1H (April to September) FY 2026 to USD 35.1 bn, according to government data released on Monday. FDI inflows in 2Q (June to September) increased by 21% y-o-y to USD 16.5 bn.

Singapore was the largest source of FDI for 1H, delivering USD 11.9 bn. Inflows from the US more than doubled in 1H to USD 6.6 bn despite tensions in bilateral relations triggered by steep tariffs imposed by Washington. Investments from Mauritius were valued at USD 3.47 bn and from the UAE at USD 2.3 bn.

Government seeks additional funds-

The Finance Ministry has sought parliamentary approval for INR 414.5 bn (USD 4.62 bn) in net additional spending this fiscal year to fulfil administrative and subsidy needs, according to the ministry’s supplementary demands for grants (pdf). Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed INR 41.03 bn (USD 460 mn) for defense procurement and capital needs, alongside INR 125 bn (USD 1.4 bn) to compensate state-owned energy firms for cooking gas subsidies and INR 110 bn (USD 1.2 bn) for fertilizer imports. The rest of the proceeds will go to administrative expenses. The request comes on top of the budgeted USD 566 bn expenditure for the fiscal year ending in March 2026.

Monetary Policy forecast-

State-owned lender Bank of Baroda forecasts that the Reserve Bank of India will keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance in its 5 December policy review, analysts at Bank of Baroda write. The lender predicts a continuity in growth momentum in 3Q — following a 8.2% growth rate in 2Q FY 2026 — on the back of strong urban consumption, rural demand, and a gradual pickup in private investment.

The bank expects tamed inflation, well below the central bank’s estimates, following a record low of 0.25% in October. Despite the space for a rate cut, Baroda forecasts the RBI is likely to maintain a cautious stance as economic growth remains robust and US tariff driven headwinds could require monetary easing in future reviews.

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IPO WATCH

Wakefit targets USD 669 mn valuation in market debut, and more on India’s IPO pipeline

India’s IPO market remains hot heading into the end of the year as companies rush to beat the New Year’s buzzer.

Bengaluru-based home and sleep solutions retailer Wakefit Innovations will open its IPO for retail investors on 8-10 December, with listing expected on 15 December, Reuters reports. The company has set a price band of INR 185-195 per share, eyeing a valuation of up to INR 59.96 bn (USD 669 mn).

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

The offering includes a fresh issue of INR 3.77 bn (USD 42.2 mn) and an offer-for-sale of 46.7 mn shares by founders and existing investors including Peak XV Partners Investments VI, Redwood Trust, Verlinvest, SAI Global India Fund I, and Paramark KB Fund I, according to a draft filing on the NSE offer-documents archive.

Use of proceeds: Wakefit plans to allocate INR 161.4 mn (USD 1.8 mn) for lease and license fee payments on its store network and INR 108.4 mn (USD 1.2 mn) toward brand marketing. A further INR 30.8 mn (USD 340k) will go toward opening 117 new stores, and INR 15.4 mn (USD 170k) will be used for equipment and machinery, with the balance going to general corporate requirements.

Pre-IPO placement: The company raised INR 56 mn (USD 630k) from DSP India Fund and 360 One Equity Opportunities Fund, issuing 2.87 mn shares at INR 195 each.

About the firm: Wakefit offers a range of mattresses, furniture, and home accessories through its digital platform, company-owned stores, and tie-ups with e-commerce marketplaces and multi-brand retailers. It is among India’s fastest-growing local consumer brands in the home-solutions category, with total income reaching INR 10 bn (USD 120 mn) by end-March 2024, Livemint reports.

ADVISORS- Axis Capital, IIFL Capital Services, and Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities India are lead bookrunners on the issue, while MUFG Intime India is the registrar.

ASG Hospital Plans INR 35 bn IPO-

Rajasthan-based super-specialty eye care chain ASG Hospital is considering an IPO that could raise up to INR 35 bn (USD 391 mn), Bloomberg reports. The proposed offering would involve a mix of fresh shares and stock sales by existing investors, and dilute some 15% of the company’s equity.

What they’re targeting: ASG is aiming for a valuation of around INR 232.4 bn (USD 2.6 bn), with the listing expected next year. The company has invited investment banks to pitch for advisory roles, according to the news outlet.

Backers: ASG Hospital is backed by US private-equity firm General Atlantic and India-focused investor Kedaara Capital.

Sector backdrop: The potential IPO would follow recent listings from peers including Dr.Agarwal’s Health Care, Global Health (Medanta), and Jupiter Life Line Hospitals.

More in the IPO pipeline-

Mumbai-based consumer electronics manufacturer Atomberg Technologies is mulling an IPO that could raise nearly INR 16.6 bn (USD 200 mn), Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The company has reportedly started early discussions with investment banks and aims to launch the IPO next year. Its current investors include Singapore’s SWF Temasek Holdings, Steadview Capital Management, Jungle Ventures, and Inflexor Ventures.

Gujarat-based city-gas distributor Torrent Gas has appointed three banks for a planned IPO that could raise up to INR 37.5 bn (USD 450 mn), Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The company has mandated Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Capital, and Citigroup India’s unit as book-running lead managers. The planned IPO could value Torrent Gas at around INR 250 bn (USD 3 bn) and will test investor appetite for city-gas distributors as firms scale operations to meet the government’s push for cleaner fuels.

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M&A WATCH

Carlyle eyes Indian housing-finance boom with Nido investment

Washington-based private equity giant Carlyle Group is negotiating to acquire a majority stake in Mumbai-based Nido Home Finance Ltd, owned by Mumbai-based Edelweiss Financial Services, with an initial commitment of USD 300 mn, Bloomberg reports. Talks are ongoing and no definitive agreement has been reached. If completed, the agreement would add Carlyle to a growing list of large global and foreign investors backing India’s rapidly expanding housing-finance sector, alongside Blackstone and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Edelweiss’s chairman has signalled openness to external equity to scale its home-loan business, according to an earnings call in September. Carlyle, which has invested roughly USD 8 bn in India over the past 25 years, said it aims to make larger investments and build platforms across financial services. Carlyle also sold its decade-old stake in PNB Housing Finance as well as in Yes Bank earlier this year, Economic Times reports.

Background: India’s housing-finance market has become a key target for private capital in recent years, driven by rising home demand, under-explored mortgage credit, and strong valuation potential. Large global funds including Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Blackstone have invested in Indian home-loan lenders such as Kolte-Patil Developers and Aadhar Housing Finance.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Indian fashion platform gears up for expansion in UAE, Malaysia, and Australia

Myntra is preparing to re-enter the UAE market amid broader expansion plans that include Malaysia and Australia, Moneycontrol reports. The move builds on the Walmart-owned fashion platform’s strong traction in Singapore as it eyes markets with a large Indian diaspora. Operations will run through Myntraglobal, which fulfils cross-border orders from India via local partners, allowing the firm to scale without on-ground teams.

This marks the company’s second foray into the UAE — one of Myntra’s fastest-growing international traffic sources. A previous partnership in 2020 with Emaar group’s Noon and Namshi was unsuccessful and the efforts did not yield results, leading Myntra to pause regional operations. The push is a key focus area for CEO Nandita Sinha (Linkedin), who steered Myntra to profitability and wants a sustainable, India-led offering tailored to diaspora shoppers.

AUTO-

Ashok Leyland sets up Saudi subsidiary: India-based commercial vehicle manufacturer Ashok Leyland has incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary in Saudi Arabia to establish an assembly plant, according to a filing (pdf). The subsidiary will serve the domestic market and regional demand.

FINANCE-

The government of India will sell up to 6% of its stake in state-owned Bank of Maharashtra through an offer-for-sale, with the window opening for non-retail investors on 2 December and for retail investors on 3 December, Fortune India reports. The offer includes a 5% base sale and a 1% green-shoe option, and the base tranche alone could raise about INR 18 bn (USD 216 mn) at current market prices. The government held 79.6% in the lender as of the September quarter, and shares closed at INR 57.66 on the announcement day, valuing the bank at about INR 443.5 bn (USD 5.3 bn).

7

PLANET FINANCE

Pundits pencil-in rate cut next week as Fed divisions widen on where the cycle should stop

The see-sawing of expectations for what’s to come at next week’s US Federal Reserve interest rate meeting continues, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut now at 89.2%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, up from 63% a month ago. This would come on the heels of two 25 bps cuts in September and October, with the latest cut bringing the target range down to 3.75-4% as policymakers grappled with weak labor data and murky economic indicators in the wake of the government shutdown.

This also comes as a lack of consensus among Fed officials deepens. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted “strongly differing views” within the rate-setting committee over whether to focus on price stability or maximum employment.

Policymakers are also split about what a neutral rate — the level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy — would be ahead of Fed officials giving their predictions next week, with estimates diverging more than at any point since 2012, Bloomberg reports. Estimations from September put it between 2.6-3.9%, with 19 officials coming up with 11 different predictions.

There’s always some disagreement over where the neutral rate — also known as r-star — is, especially because it can only be inferred and later judged in the rearview mirror, but this time, the degree of disagreement is more intense — and potentially, more consequential. “It starts to become potentially a binding constraint for some of the more hawkish Fed members,” Stephen Stanley, chief US economist for Santander, said. “It definitely means that each successive cut becomes harder and harder.”

AI + tariffs influencing the outlook: Broader AI adoption could lift productivity and push the neutral rate higher, according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Investment in AI, along with supportive fiscal and monetary policies, were cited as factors helping the global economy cope with US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, according to an OECD report cited by Bloomberg. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on the other hand, maintains that US policies like tariffs and tax cuts may be pushing neutral rates lower, supporting the case for more easing.

Looking ahead: A changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve in 2026 could also reshape views on the neutral rate, with incoming policymakers expected to lean toward lower interest rates — adding another layer of uncertainty to the path of future policy.

Speaking of: US President Donald Trump is set to announce the new Fed Chair early next year, he said last week, and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is a top contender. His election would grant Trump a 5-2 majority on the board of the central bank.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green after Wall Street indices rallied yesterday, with South Korea’s Kospi leading gains with a c.1.1% rise, Japan’s Nikkei climbing more than 0.7%, and China’s CSI 300 adding 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the only outlier, dipping 0.7%. Over on Wall Street, futures point to another strong open on the heels of the tech-fueled rally.

ADX

9,747

+0.4% (YTD: +3.5%)

DFM

5,837

+0.4% (YTD: +13.1%)

Tadawul

10,536

-0.1% (YTD: -12.5%)

EGX30

40,626

-0.2% (YTD: +36.6%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,145

-1.2% (YTD: +17.9%)

QSE

10,674

+0.5% (YTD: +1.0%)

S&P 500

6,829

+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)

FTSE 100

9,702

0.0% (YTD: +18.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,686

+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)

Brent crude

USD 62.45

0.0%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.86

+0.3%

Gold

USD 4,250

+0.7%

BTC

USD 91,655

+6.0% (YTD: -2.1%)

S&P 500

6,829

+0.3% (YTD: +16.1%)

FTSE 100

9,702

0.0% (YTD: +18.7%)

THE OPENING BELL-

The S&P BSE Sensex opened in red reaching 84,848 in early trading, down 0.3%. The index is up 8.08% YTD.

Over on the NIFTY 50, the index also opened in red reaching 25,926 in the morning trade, down 0.4%. The index is up 9.2% YTD.


DECEMBER

1-19 December (Monday-Friday): Winter Session of Indian Parliament, New Delhi.

3-7 December (Wednesday-Sunday): ENGIMACH Automation & Manufacturing Technology Expo, Helipad Exhibition Center (Gandhinagar), Gujarat.

4-5 December (Monday-Tuesday): India-Russia Bilateral Summit (Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India Visit), New Delhi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Telangana Rising 2047, Hyderabad, Telangana.

11 December (Thursday), FICCI Commercial Real Estate Conclave, Taj MG Road, Bengaluru.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): India assumes the Presidency of Brics.

19-20 January (Monday-Tuesday): International Crop Science Conference and Exhibition, Le Méridien Conference Center, Dubai.

26 January (Monday): Republic Day.

27 January (Tuesday): India-EU Summit (to potentially finalize FTA), New Delhi.

27-30 January (Tuesday-Friday): India Energy Week, ONGC Advanced Training Institute, Goa.

30 January-1 February (Friday-Sunday): India Agri Expo, Ludhiana Exhibition Center, Punjab.

31 January (Saturday): Commencement of Budget Session 2026, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

FEBRUARY

1 February (Sunday): Union Budget 2026-27, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

3-6 February (Tuesday-Friday): ChemTech World Expo, Jio World Convention Center, Mumbai.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Pune International Business Summit (PIBS), SL Kirloskar Convention Center, JW Marriott, Pune.

14-18 February (Saturday-Wednesday): IHGF Delhi Fair (Spring), New Delhi.

19-20 February (Thursday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

4 March (Wednesday): Holi.

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards, Bengaluru.

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan – Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Al Fitr.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PlastiWorld India, Jio World Convention Center, Mumbai.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

  • Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory Puducherry.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

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