Iran allows some India-bound tankers to pass Hormuz

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India to delay interim trade pact with US; Govt scraps IDBI Bank stake sale

Good afternoon, readers. It is day 17 and the war continues to dominate headlines across the corridor. Analysts are already calculating the impact of a prolonged conflict on India’s economy, while the government is considering a major policy intervention to assist exporters.

The big story today: Iran has allowed two fuel tankers destined for India’s west coast through the Strait of Hormuz following sustained diplomatic efforts by the foreign minister.

Plus: We had an exclusive chat with Waeil Awwad, secretary general of the Indo-Arab Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture, who remains positive about India-MENA economic ties despite the ongoing conflict.

Watch this space

TRADE — India is likely to postpone signing an interim trade agreement with the US after Washington initiated a new investigation into what it describes as excess industrial capacity among several trading partners, including India, Reuters reports, citing government sources. The probe covers manufacturing sectors across 16 trading partners. The proposed interim agreement was expected to include lowering duties on some US goods and India committing to purchase up to USD 500 bn worth of American products.

Negotiations continue: Talks on a broader trade agreement between India and the US remain ongoing despite the delay in signing the interim pact. India “stands by the US agreement,” Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said, adding that negotiating teams remain in continuous discussions. The interim agreement was initially expected in March but may now slip by several months. Negotiations also slowed after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

IN CONTEXT- Last year, the US imposed steep 50% tariffs on Indian imports, half of which were linked to Indian purchases of Russian oil. However, US President Donal Trump slashed tariffs on Indian goods to 18% following an agreement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Following the Supreme Court decision, Trump imposed 10% tariffs on all countries, but India seems to be at a disadvantage with its 18% rate and is seeking clarity from the US administration.

M&A WATCH — The Indian government is reportedly scrapping plans to sell a majority stake in IDBI Bank as bids received were below its minimum price expectations, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources.

Foreign bidders: Emirates NBD was among the international suitors who submitted bids to acquire a stake in India’s state-owned lender, competing against Canada’s Fairfax for 60.7% of IDBI, estimated to be worth over USD 7.5 bn. Despite strong foreign appetite for Indian banking assets in recent M&As, the government is now expected to revisit the sale only when market conditions improve.

Market reax: The IDBI stock dropped as much as 16.5% in today’s trading, its steepest single-day decline in nearly a year and reversing gains that had built up on expectations of an M&A.

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Data points

USD 447 bn — that is how much the market capitalization of Indian equities has declined since the start of the war in Iran, Business Standard reports. The combined market capitalization of listed firms is at USD 4.7 tn and the scale of the decline is close to the USD 508 bn drop recorded during the Covid-driven market sell off in March 2020. Foreign portfolio investors have also sold shares worth USD 7 bn so far this month.

The big story abroad

The regional war is still getting ink from all international dailies — no surprise there — as Washington raises the stakes. US President Donald Trump has warned Nato that it faces a “very bad” future if the coalition does not help the US in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, he told the Financial Times. Trump also signaled that he may delay his sit-down with China’s President Xi Jinping — scheduled for later this month — in efforts to pressure Beijing to act.

And in the world of e-commerce: Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com has launched its online marketplace — Joybuy — in European markets, as it prepares to face off with its major rival Amazon. China’s largest direct online retailer has stepped foot into the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, diversifying its offerings away from its home market, where retailers face fierce competition vis-a-vis fast delivery times.

AND- This year’s Oscars are wrapping up as we hit send this morning. Among those who secured awards during the ceremony: Jessie Buckley won best actress for her performance in Hamnet and Sinners’ Michael B Jordan was awarded best actor. One Battle After Another took home the award for best picture.

Market watch

CAPITAL MARKETS — Indian benchmarks suffered their steepest weekly decline since the pandemic, with the NSE Nifty 50 dropping 2.06% on Friday, while the BSE Sensex dropped 1.93%. Both indexes extended losses for a third straight session as crude prices held above USD 100 per barrel, raising concerns about inflation and growth for the world’s third-largest oil importer.

Energy-led sector selloff: Rate-sensitive and energy-exposed sectors led the decline. Auto stocks plunged more than 10% last week, their worst fall in six years, while financials also slid amid foreign investor outflows. Prolonged oil disruption could pressure India’s trade balance, with some analysts projecting a 200 bps drop in FY 2027 earnings growth.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

India pursues diplomacy with Iran to secure Hormuz tanker passage

First tankers to move through Hormuz? India has secured passage for two LPG tankers in the Strait of Hormuz through “direct coordination with Tehran,” Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar confirmed to the Financial Times. He clarified that there is “no blanket arrangement” with Iran for Indian carriers and each vessel’s passage is being handled case-by-case.

“I am at the moment engaged in talking to them, and my talking has yielded some results. This is ongoing. If it is yielding results for me, I would naturally continue to look at it,” the minister told the outlet.

Why it matters: This comes on the back of US Donald Trump urging countries to deploy warships to reopen the route. Direct talks with Tehran have already delivered limited results, Jaishankar said, demonstrating that negotiations can secure safe transit without military involvement.

Fragile corridors: The two India-flagged carriers Shivalik and Nanda Devi — carrying more than 92k metric tonnes of liquified petroleum gas bound for India — have already transited Hormuz as the country’s domestic gas supply comes under strain. The shipments are expected to arrive in India by tomorrow.

A rare exception: India has requested safe passage for 22 of its vessels stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports, after Iran allowed a small number of Indian ships to transit the corridor. New Delhi is engaging with all major regional stakeholders, including Iran, the GCC, the US, and Israel, to safeguard energy supplies and shipping routes, The Daily Pioneer reports, citing the Ministry of External Affairs.

IN CONTEXT- Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, asserting that the safety of Indian nationals and the uninterrupted movement of goods and energy through the strait are priorities for India. Jaishankar has also held multiple conversations with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on maritime safety and India’s energy security.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Hormuz disruption hits India’s oil, freight, fertilizer costs

Day 17 of the war: Surging crude prices and severe shipping bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz are squeezing India’s economy across multiple sectors, threatening to balloon the country's import bill while forcing exporters and major industries to grapple with skyrocketing freight costs and critical supply chain disruptions.

Import bills surge?

India’s oil import bill could balloon by as much as USD 64 bn if oil prices average at USD 110-115 per bbl this fiscal year, according to rating agency ICRA. Sustained increases in crude prices could widen India’s current account deficit (CAD) — a USD 10 / bbl rise in average crude prices could widen India’s CAD by about 30-40 basis points (bps), ICRA notes.

Why it matters: The country relies on imports for about 90% of its crude oil, 60% of its liquefied petroleum gas, and roughly half of its liquefied natural gas demand. Authorities have begun prioritizing household energy supply, cutting gas allocations to industrial users while urging consumers to avoid panic buying.

Macro pressures mount: For every USD 10 increase in crude prices, India’s annual import costs could surge by roughly USD 12-15 bn, DSP Mutual Fund estimates. Costlier crude could further weaken the INR and increase inflation — a USD 10 rise in oil prices would raise the wholesale inflation index by 100 bps and consumer price index by 60 bps, according to ICRA. If oil prices stay above USD 120 bbl through FY 2027, India’s CAD is estimated to rise beyond 3% of the country’s GDP.

India diversifies fertilizer sourcing

India is looking to increase fertilizer sourcing from Russia, Morocco, China, Indonesia, and Belarus as disruptions in the Gulf impact supplies for the farming sector, Mint reports. The move comes ahead of the sowing season starting June, as authorities look to reduce exposure to potential disruptions along Gulf shipping routes.

IN CONTEXT- India relies heavily on Gulf producers for fertilizer imports. Roughly 70% of India’s urea shipments transit the Strait of Hormuz, making the route critical for fertilizer supplies. Of the 5.64 mn tonnes of urea imported last financial year, about 70% came from Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.

Russia and China have already emerged as key urea suppliers this financial year, while sourcing agreements for phosphatic fertilizers have also been expanded.

Shipping cost shock hits exporters

India’s exporters are facing severe disruption as nearly 70% of outbound shipments have been affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Hindu Businessline reports. Freight rates have surged as much as 300%, while longer routes via the Cape of Good Hope are extending transit times and raising ins. and fuel surcharges.

Industry estimates: Nearly 70% of outbound shipments have been affected by vessel suspensions, cargo backlogs, and rerouted voyages. Most major shipping lines have paused services, leaving a handful of operators moving cargo, exporters told the outlet. Companies are grappling with rising demurrage, storage fees, and uncertainty over consignments in transit.

Small biz takes the hit: Efforts to divert shipments to alternative markets have proven difficult, as exporters, particularly small and medium enterprises, lack the capacity to redirect cargo or absorb the surging logistics costs.

MEANWHILE- The Indian government is considering temporary relief measures for exporters, similar to those implemented during the pandemic, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. These measures could include extended deadlines for repatriating export proceeds, easing bank overdraft rules, and granting moratoriums on loan repayments. Partial compensation for higher freight, demurrage, and conflict surcharges are also being considered to ease the situation for exporters.

Hindalco pauses extrusion output after gas supply disruption

India-based metals producer Hindalco Industries, part of the Aditya Birla Group, has paused production of some extruded aluminum products after gas supply disruptions, Reuters reports.

Why it matters: The company issued a force majeure notice to customers on 11 March following supply interruptions from gas providers. Extruded aluminum products — used in construction, electric vehicles, electronics, and solar equipment — require gas-fired heating during manufacturing.

Limited impact: Hindalco later clarified that the notice followed force majeure declarations from certain gas suppliers and was issued to alert customers about potential disruption affecting part of its extrusion segment.

Drone strike in Oman kills two Indian workers

Two Indian nationals were killed and 10 others were injured after drones struck an industrial zone in Sohar, Oman — bringing the total number of Indians killed during the war to five, Times of India reports. Some 150k Indians have returned from the Gulf, a tiny fraction of some 9 mn working in the region, the report adds.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

India’s drone market set for rapid take-off

India’s domestic drone market is projected to grow from about USD 500 mn in 2025 to nearly USD 1.4 bn by 2030 at a CAGR of 24.4% as defense modernization accelerates, according to a report by HDFC Securities.

Economy of the war: The rapid adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in modern conflicts is changing global defense spending, with drones emerging as core battlefield tech. The Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran conflict have accelerated demand for long-range strike drones and surveillance systems.

Why it matters: The surge in drone warfare is expected to benefit Indian defense electronics companies such as Apollo Micro Systems and Data Patterns due to their capabilities in avionics, radar, and electronic warfare systems used in UAV platforms. India's defense allocation in the FY 2027 budget reached INR 7.8 tn (USD 85 bn), with 28% of the total budget (USD 23.8 bn) specifically set aside for capital expenditure in advanced tech.

By the numbers: The global military drone market is set to reach USD 40 bn by 2030 from USD 26 bn today. Meanwhile, the counter-drone segment — focused on detecting and neutralizing hostile UAVs — is outpacing drones with a 21% compound annual growth rate, nearly double the 9.2% growth rate for drones.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Doubling Indo-Arab trade to USD 500 bn: The roadmap beyond oil

The League of Arab States accounts for roughly one-sixth of India’s total global trade at USD 240 bn. To double that to USD 500 bn by 2030, trade needs to move beyond energy flows to investment-led value chains, says Waeil Awwad, secretary general of the Indo-Arab Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture. In an exclusive chat with EnterpriseAM, Awwad outlines the roadmap ahead, even as war hits the region and logistical bottlenecks cloud near-term outlook.

EnterpriseAM: What is the structural change needed to realistically achieve the USD 500 bn target?

Waeil Awwad (WA): The dominance of an energy-led trade structure continues to limit diversification into high-value sectors. Crude oil will remain the base, but growth will require co-investment, co-production, and technology collaboration. It means building value chains around petrochemicals, manufacturing, and re-export hubs rather than just raw commodity flows. Renewable energy, green hydrogen, and energy storage will be integral to the transition. The most scalable upside remains in pharma, healthcare services, and agri-processing, as well as fintech, AI, and smart infrastructure. India brings manufacturing capability, technology, and human capital, while the Arab world brings capital and market access.

EnterpriseAM: Several operational barriers persist in India-Arab trade. What are the primary bottlenecks for most businesses today?

WA: Regulatory complexity, differences in standards, customs procedures, and certification processes raise costs and delay shipments, particularly for smaller exporters. Second, dependence on USD-based transactions, the absence of robust local currency settlement mechanisms, and limited access to trade finance can slow projects. Despite the geographic proximity, logistical inefficiencies — shipping routes, underdeveloped multimodal corridors, and port bottlenecks — limit supply chain integration and project execution. Businesses also cite visa constraints, varied law enforcement mechanisms, and weak market intelligence as factors that prevent scaling cross-border investment.

EnterpriseAM: How are geopolitics and the war impacting trade corridors and plans for connectivity, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)?

WA: Regional conflict and sensitivities could delay large multilateral infrastructure projects in the near term. A realistic pathway may involve a phased “IMEC Plus” model built around existing infrastructure and stable segments of the corridor. The India-UAE-Saudi Arabia trade route appears the most commercially viable starting point, while Egypt could play a critical role in linking the Gulf to Europe through the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal. Pragmatically, a flexible, multi-nodal network linking India, the Gulf, North Africa, and Europe may prove more resilient than the original linear corridor, especially during times of geopolitical volatility.

EnterpriseAM: How will the chamber step in to accelerate Indo-Arab trade and project financing?

WA: We plan to build structured pipelines to connect businesses through organizing sector-focused buyer-seller meets and curated delegations to convert dialogues into transactions. The next focal point is to simplify trade procedures for companies as they navigate regulatory requirements, obtain Certificates of Origin, and discover verified partners in Arab markets. Third, sectoral investment platforms will connect Gulf capital with projects in food security, energy, healthcare, and logistics across India and the Arab region.

EnterpriseAM: How can small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) benefit from the corridor rather than being crowded out by large firms?

WA: We plan to introduce digital platforms that connect small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) directly with Arab buyers and investors. Dedicated SME corridors within trade missions and exhibitions lend smaller companies targeted exposure. The export guidance, standards certification support, and logistics coordination mechanisms ensure that small and medium-sized enterprises are able to participate in cross-border value chains rather than being confined to domestic markets.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Out with old hedges, and in with the new

Stagflation is writing the hedge book now. With oil threatening to keep inflation elevated amid softening growth, investors are looking toward alternatives like specific equities, option overlays, CDS, commodities, and the USD for protection while moving away from typical safe havens like bonds.

But first, what exactly is stagflation? Stagflation is what happens when the economy sees a toxic mix of inflation and stagnation of growth — usually accompanied by higher unemployment and tighter monetary conditions. Prices rise, but consumers’ purchasing power dwindles, and low economic growth hits business confidence. This often happens at times of significant supply chain disruptions. We went through what that looks like in practical terms in our explainer a couple of years ago, when similar concerns had been rampant in light of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Bond yields have soared as traders expect slower economic growth and a surge in consumer prices. Two-year US yields climbed about 9 bps on Thursday to their highest since August, while German two-year yields climbed 8 bps to 2.39%, and UK bonds rose as much as 30 bps to 4.17%, though later pared the gains, Bloomberg reports.

Stocks are also victims of the selloff: Global equities have shed USD 6 tn since the war started. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped more than 5% in a single day, the business information service reported elsewhere. The drop was relatively contained in the US, with the S&P 500 falling 0.6% on Friday — but the outlook isn’t looking good. JPMorgan has turned “tactically bearish” on US stocks, while veteran strategist Ed Yardeni assigned the S&P 500 a market meltdown probability of 35%, up from 20% earlier.

So what hedges are proving safe? Goldman Sachs Asset Management has added non-linear downside protection — think protective puts and options — and credit hedges, while Invesco is steering investors toward commodities routed through the Strait of Hormuz — aluminum and grains included — as shipping risk becomes an investable theme.

Currencies are snapping back to instinct: Bloomberg’s USD index is near a two-month high, despite investors entering the conflict positioned for USD weakness — what Barclays strategist Mitul Kotecha described as a market that had been “hedging America” before running back to the USD when the headlines worsened.

Not every refuge looks old-school, though: Chinese equities are holding up on diversified energy supply, Australia’s currency is drawing support from stronger commodity prices, and some Asian managers are rotating into nuclear-energy and digital-economy names instead of classic defensives.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets started the week mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei and the Shanghai Composite down and the Hang Seng and South Korea’s Kospi in the green, as investors digest the latest developments in the regional war and fluctuating oil prices. Over on Wall Street, stocks are set to open in the red, with futures down this morning.

Sensex	75,374	+1.09% (YTD: -12.5%)
NIFTY 50	23,372	+0.9% (YTD: -11.4%)
ADX	9,318	-1.7% (YTD: -5.1%)
DFM	5,260	-3.06% (YTD: -10.2%)
Tadawul	10,878	-0.08% (YTD: +3.7%)
EGX30	45,299	-1.3% (YTD: 8.3%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,002	+0.01% (YTD: -3.6%)
QSE	10,371	-0.8% (YTD: -2.8%)
S&P 500	6,632	-0.6% (YTD: -3.1%)
FTSE 100	10,269	+0.08% (YTD: +3.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,695	-0.3% (YTD: -1.2%)
Brent crude	USD 104	+1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.1	-0.8%
Gold	USD 4,979	-0.9%
BTC	USD 73,202	+1.9%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

MARCH

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan - Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Ul-Fitr.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft 2026: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PLASTIWORLD India 2026, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

27-29 March (Friday-Sunday): Vizag International SME Business Expo, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

6-8 April (Monday-Wednesday): Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo 2026, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

16-17 April (Thursday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit 2026, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX 2026, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave 2025, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

MAY

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo 2026, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced).
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting 2026, Brussels, Belgium.
India to host the BRICS Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat 2026, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans) 2026, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week 2026, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex 2026, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest 2026, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference 2026, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star 2026, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi is expected to be held between July-August. Dates yet to be announced.
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle. Dates yet to be announced.
India Mobile Congress 2026, New Delhi will likely be held in October. Dates yet to be announced.

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