Hormuz disruptions squeeze Indian industry

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India intensifies diplomacy to move LPG cargoes through Hormuz chokepoint

Good afternoon, readers. The ongoing regional conflict continues to dominate the narrative through the MENA-India trade and energy corridors.

**A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM MENA<>India will take a break from your inboxes on Friday as much of the region is off for Eid Al Fitr, and will be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Monday, 23 March.

The big theme today: Indian diplomacy is in overdrive to secure safe passage for stranded fuel tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The ripple effects of these logistical bottlenecks are already hitting home, with domestic manufacturing across India’s steel, pharma, and fertilizer sectors beginning to feel the pinch of fuel shortages.

But corporate moves haven't ground to a halt. Emirates NBD looks set to get a second swing at the IDBI Bank, as the government will restart the privatization process from scratch.

The Indian IPO market is seeing a high-stakes split: Walmart-backed PhonePe is hitting pause amid the volatility, while Gulf SWF-backed Jio Platforms is pressing ahead with plans for what could be India’s largest-ever listing.

Let’s dive right in.

Watch this space

DIPLOMACY— India is focusing all diplomatic efforts on securing safe passage for six liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as talks with Tehran continue, Bloomberg reports. This is the second negotiation after India secured passage for two LPG carriers earlier this week.

Why it matters: The vessels are carrying roughly 270k tonnes of cooking fuel, prioritized amid an acute domestic cooking gas shortage. The fully loaded carriers are currently idling west of the strait in the Persian Gulf awaiting clearance to sail to India. Reportedly, 22 India-linked vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, including LPG carriers, crude oil tankers and a ship carrying liquified natural gas.

India denies quid pro quo: India has refuted reports that it is negotiating with Iran to release three tankers seized earlier this year in return for securing safe passage for India-bound vessels through Hormuz, stated Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal in a press briefing. He dismissed the claims as “baseless,” adding that the three vessels are “not Iranian-owned” and have no Iranian crew on them.

Context: Indian authorities had detained the vessels — Asphalt Star, Al Jafzia and Stellar Ruby — near Indian waters in February, alleging they concealed their identities and conducted illegal ship-to-ship fuel transfers.

TRADE— India’s rice exports are expected to remain broadly stable despite the war, with shipment volumes likely to grow up to 2% over last year’s 6 mn tonnes, as per a report by Crisil Ratings. While exports to Iran may decline due to trade disruptions, stronger demand from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Yemen is expected to offset the shortfall.

Logistics strain builds: Longer transit times, higher freight costs and ins. premiums will likely increase exporters’ financing needs by up to 10-15%, as per Crisil. However, the additional logistics costs are expected to be passed on to buyers, to maintain profitability and keep credit stable despite higher borrowing.

Why it matters: India controls 85% of the global basmati market. Iran received 14% of the rice volume exported from India in the last fiscal year. With the country facing war and payment issues, the rest of the Middle East is picking up the grain to ensure food security.

ENBD may get another shot at acquiring IDBI Bank: The privatization process of the Indian lender IDBI Bank is set to restart after bids for a controlling stake fell short of the government’s expectations, forcing the process to be scrapped last week, Economic Times reports, citing unnamed sources. Emirates NBD was among the international suitors who submitted bids to acquire a stake in the bank, competing against Canada’s Fairfax for 60.7% of IDBI, estimated to be worth over USD 7.5 bn.

What now? A ministerial panel reportedly overseeing the divestment is expected to support re-launching the stake sale again from scratch. The government has been attempting to privatize the state-owned lender for nearly five years as part of a broader approach to reduce its role in commercial banking.

Reserve price rethink: Authorities are likely to review how the reserve price was determined, particularly the heavy reliance on stock price for a bank with a small public float, which may have distorted valuations. If the process restarts, Emirates NBD and Fairfax will be allowed to resubmit offers without repeating regulatory clearances.

Why it matters: ENBD’s interest in IDBI was a cornerstone of its corridor strategy to capture the massive remittance and trade-finance flows between the UAE and India. It comes after ENBD recently acquired Indian private lender RBL Bank for USD 3 bn.

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Data point

5.5k — That is the number of flights from India cancelled by domestic and international airlines amid the ongoing regional conflict, Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu told the Indian Parliament. Domestic carriers cancelled 4.3k flights and foreign airlines up to 1.2k as airspace restrictions disrupted aviation routes between India and the Gulf region, PTI reports.

The big story abroad

Major escalations have kept the regional war on the front pages, chief among them was the killing of Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani by an Israeli airstrike. Larijani — a longtime architect of Iran’s security policy — is the most senior regime member killed in the war after former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, to whom he was a close advisor.

Israel also killed General Gholam Reza Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij — a paramilitary volunteer militia.

Meanwhile, a top US counterterrorism official resigned over Washington’s war on the Islamic Republic. Joe Kent — the director of the US National Counterterrorism Center — stepped down yesterday, claiming that “Iran posed no imminent threat to [the US]” and attributed the operation to “pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

The war has sent US gas prices beyond USD 3.75 a gallon for the first time since October 2023, Reuters reports, citing data by fuel price tracker GasBuddy.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Hormuz disruptions jolt through India’s steel and pharma sectors

Escalating disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a widening energy crisis across India, slashing domestic LPG sales by over 17% in early March and threatening to paralyze key industrial sectors ranging from steel and pharma to fertilizer production. The Indian government is tapping an INR 60 bn contingency fund to secure emergency gas supplies and prevent a collapse in fertilizer manufacturing.

India’s LPG sales drop on Hormuz disruptions

Liquified petroleum gas (LPG) sales in India slowed sharply in the first two weeks of March as supply constraints linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected deliveries, Reuters reports. State-owned fuel retailers — Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation — sold about 1.15 mn tonnes of LPG in the first half of the month, marking a 17.3% decline y-o-y and a 26.3% drop from the previous month.

Remember: India depends on the Middle East for around 90% of its LPG imports, leaving supplies vulnerable to disruption along Gulf shipping routes. The government has diverted volumes away from industrial consumers to safeguard household availability.

Gas shortages hit JSW operations

Gas shortages are beginning to disrupt operations at some steel plants of India-based metals conglomerate JSW Group, with one unit at risk of shutting down in the coming days, Reuters reports, citing an internal company note.

Limited fuel is starting to affect plant operations. JSW Steel Coated Products has flagged possible delays in meeting tinplate output targets under the government's production linked incentive program and sought extended deadlines to meet targets after the company received a force majeure notice from its supplier Petronet LNG.

Broader impact: Industry body Indian Steel Association warned that shortages of propane and LPG could affect steel MSMEs and their ancillary units. It is urging for faster and prioritized alternate sourcing.

Propane shortage disrupts India pharma output

Similar fuel shortages are beginning to disrupt pharmaceutical manufacturing, with units across key production hubs scaling back operations as propane supply tightens, Economic Times reports. Factories in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are seeing output disruptions, particularly in segments such as paracetamol, vitamins and hormone-based medicines. Industry estimates indicate that up to 200 manufacturers could suspend production within 7-10 days, if fuel availability does not improve.

Production risk: Industry stakeholders have flagged that prolonged shortages could begin to affect output of bulk drugs and injectables, as core processes such as steam generation and temperature-controlled manufacturing cycles face interruptions. The disruption also raises risks for supply continuity in global pharmaceutical markets that depend on Indian manufacturers.

Tapping war-chest to secure fertilizer output

Refiners are moving to secure additional LNG from the spot market through an INR 6 bn (USD 72 mn) contingency fund as gas supplies to fertilizer plants come under strain, Business Standard reports. The intervention is aimed at preventing a sharper drop in urea output, with gas availability projected could fall from the committed 70% level to around 50%, if disruption persists.

Supply stress: Some fertilizer units have advanced timelines for maintenance related pauses or cut operating rates due to limited gas supply. The government has redirected producers to prioritize urea output by diverting available ammonia to fertilizer production ahead of the summer sowing season, which accounts for a large share of annual crop production.

Cost pressure: Increased reliance on spot LNG is raising input costs, with prices crossing USD 20/mmBtu. This could push up subsidy requirements for urea — which is sold at controlled prices — adding pressure to the INR 1.16 tn subsidy allocation for FY 2026-27 if elevated gas prices persist.

India IPO pipeline splits as PhonePe pauses, Jio readies filing

India’s primary market is witnessing a high-stakes split as geopolitical volatility and a 7% dip in benchmark indices force a reckoning for major listings. While Walmart-backed PhonePe has indefinitely shelved its IPO citing “dampened investor appetite,” Reliance Industries is moving in the opposite direction, with Jio Platforms preparing to file for what would be the largest initial offering in Indian history.

PhonePe pauses IPO plans amid market volatility

Walmart and QIA backed digital payments platform PhonePe has paused plans for an IPO as geopolitical tensions and volatility in global financial markets dampen investor appetite for new listings, Reuters reports.

Share sale: The listing had been targeting a valuation of up to INR 872 bn (USD 10.5 bn).

The offering was expected to involve the sale of about 50.7 mn shares by existing investors including venture capital firm Tiger Global Management, Walmart and Microsoft. QIA, which has previously participated in the company’s funding rounds, is not selling its stake for now.

Gulf expansion: The company has incorporated PhonePe Middle East FZ-LLC in Dubai Media City, signalling plans to enter the Gulf payments market. The subsidiary has applied to the Central Bank of the UAE for licences covering retail payment services and stored-value facilities.

What’s next? PhonePe intends to revive the listing process once market conditions stabilize. India’s benchmark stock index has declined roughly 7% since the conflict began. If completed, PhonePe’s listing would rank among the largest fintech IPOs in India since 2021.

Market backdrop: The cautious environment has also weighed on India’s primary market. Of the 11 companies that have gone public in India this year, seven are trading below their issue price.

Jio Platforms eyes March IPO filing

Gulf SWF backed Jioplatforms — the telecom unit of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries — is preparing to file draft IPO papers by the end of March, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. This will be the largest listing in India’s history.

Gulf SWFs including Mubadala and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority are among Jio Platforms’ investors, positioning them within the pool of shareholders eligible to participate in the proposed share sale.

Investor exit: The offering is expected to be structured largely as a secondary share sale by existing investors, with Jio planning to dilute around a 2.5% stake. The final size and structure remain under discussion.

Lead advisors: Kotak Mahindra Capital and Morgan Stanley India are likely to take lead roles in the transaction, alongside a broader syndicate of domestic and international banks.

Valuation range: Market expectations place the potential listing in the INR 8.3-10 tn (USD 100-120 bn) range, with some broker estimates indicating higher upside.

What’s next? The IPO could take place later in 2026, although the exact timing remains under discussion.

ALSO IN IPOs-

Coal India subsidiary Central Mine Planning & Design Institute (CMPDI) is seeking a valuation of about USD 1.33 bn as its IPO opens for subscription on Friday, at a time when investors have become more selective toward new listings in India, Reuters reports.

Key details: The offer is priced in a band of INR 163-172 per share and is expected to raise about INR 18.38 bn (USD 198.7 mn). At the upper end, the implied market capitalization is around INR 123 bn (USD 1.33 bn).

Advisors: IDBI Capital Markets & Securities and SBI Capital Markets are acting as the book running lead managers to the issue, while KFin Technologies Limited is the registrar.

Reliance inks USD 3 bn green ammonia pact with Samsung !_StoryHedWeb_! Reliance lands 15-year green ammonia export pact with Samsung

Reliance inks USD 3 bn pact with Samsung

Reliance Industries has inked a USD 3 bn pact to supply green ammonia to South Korean conglomerate Samsung Group's construction & trading arm under a 15-year contract, as per an exchange filing. Deliveries are set to begin in the second half of FY 2029.

The agreement ranks among the largest long-term green ammonia offtake pacts globally. Reliance stated the partnership will support its broader clean-energy ecosystem spanning solar modules, electrolyzers and battery storage, which is part of its USD 10 bn investment plan to diversify beyond its traditional oil-to-chemicals business.

Sound smart: Green ammonia, produced using hydrogen generated from renewable electricity, is increasingly viewed as a scalable fuel and a transport medium for green hydrogen. Asian economies are increasingly seeking low-carbon fuels to decarbonize heavy industry and power generation.

WPI in February

India’s wholesale prices rose 2.13% y-o-y in February, accelerating from 1.8% in January and slightly exceeding economists’ forecast of 2%, as per data from the Ministry of Statistics. Fuel and power prices continued to provide a deflationary cushion, dropping 3.7% y-o-y in February.

Food prices edge higher: Wholesale food inflation rose to 1.8% y-o-y in February from 1.4% a month earlier. Vegetable prices increased 4.7% y-o-y, although the pace eased from January’s 6.7% rise, indicating some moderation in price pressures. Prices of manufactured products — carrying the most weight in the Wholesale Price Index — rose 2.9% y-o-y in February, compared with 2.8% in January, suggesting steady cost pressures for producers.

The AI sector’s latest challenge? Ins.

Building out the AI boom is one thing, but insuring it is another — and it’s making lending in the sector more challenging. Lenders looking to fund multi-bn-USD, multi-GW AI projects are struggling to secure enough ins., the Financial Times reports. Blackstone and KKR are among those opting out of taking on AI-linked debt on the grounds of a lack of comprehensive coverage, the salmon-colored paper said.

The risks: Data centers are vulnerable to a host of events, from natural disasters to possible disruptions to water and energy supplies. A 45-minute power outage alone could wipe out half a year’s revenues, Parametrix’s Jonathan Hatzor said. This, coupled with a lack of ins. coverage, is positioning funding data centers at a level of exposure that many investors are wary of taking on, especially as the lack of full coverage may become an issue when construction loans are set to be refinanced.

Some developers have been trying to mitigate the risks, building out data centers in areas with more temperate weather patterns, but, as we’re all too aware in our neck of the woods, it’s hard to mitigate against geopolitical risks.

Hyperscalers aren’t helping, with huge investments and large-scale projects driving up ins. costs. Megaprojects are often some of the most underinsured, Kirkland & Ellis partner Kimberly McGrath said. Meanwhile, Marsh broker Kate Fairhead noted that these projects distort the market by taking on more risk on their balance sheet.

Current ins. mechanisms in place for under-construction projects are offering partial coverage. Meta’s USD 30 bn data center campus in Louisiana has about USD 4 bn worth of coverage, Clifford Chance’s Gianluca Bacchiocchi said. However, when it comes to high-profile projects with a lot of investor interest, potential backers have to accept a certain level of risk if they want to be involved.

The coverage conundrum isn’t the only worry plaguing the sector, with fears continuing to spiral around a possible AI bubble. Key AI firms have seen valuations surge, and investors have been throwing money at projects that have yet to deliver equivalent returns. Only 10% of agentic AI projects are seeing measurable returns, according to Deloitte. The IMF has also recently warned of growing AI investments, echoing the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Despite this, Nvidia has recently posted revenues that beat expectations, assuaging doubts somewhat.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly in the green in early trading this morning as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision later today — the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates as they are. Similarly, US stocks are set to open in the green later today, with futures a sea of green.

Sensex	76,803	+0.9% (YTD: -9.7%)
NIFTY 50	23,799	+0.9% (YTD: -8.9%)
ADX	9,651	+1% (YTD: -4.3%)
DFM	5,658	+2.7% (YTD: -6.2%)
Tadawul	10,946	+0.5% (YTD: +4.3%)
EGX30	46,910	+1.8% (YTD: +12.1%)
Boursa Kuwait	7,929	-0.4% (YTD: -4.08%)
QSE	10,529	+1.3% (YTD: -3.4%)
S&P 500	6,716	+0.2% (YTD: -1.8%)
FTSE 100	10,425	+0.2% (YTD: +4.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,815	+0.8% (YTD: -0.3%)
Brent crude	USD 103	-0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.93	-3.1%
Gold	USD 4,993	-0.2%
BTC	USD 74,195	+0.3%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

MARCH

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan - Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Ul-Fitr.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft 2026: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PLASTIWORLD India 2026, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

27-29 March (Friday-Sunday): Vizag International SME Business Expo, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

6-8 April (Monday-Wednesday): Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo 2026, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

16-17 April (Thursday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit 2026, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX 2026, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave 2025, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

MAY

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo 2026, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced).
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting 2026, Brussels, Belgium.
India to host the BRICS Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat 2026, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans) 2026, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week 2026, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex 2026, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest 2026, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference 2026, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star 2026, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi is expected to be held between July-August. Dates yet to be announced.
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle. Dates yet to be announced.
India Mobile Congress 2026, New Delhi will likely be held in October. Dates yet to be announced.

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