Gulf airlines struggling to expand in India

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Petronet seeks softer US LNG terms; UAE’s Trueledger eyes stake in Silverline

Good afternoon, friends. India’s aviation, energy, and industrial policies are converging in ways that are challenging old assumptions.

The big story: As New Delhi pushes to build national champions and expand long-haul capacity, Gulf carriers are finding their growth limited by bilateral seat caps. With new air service agreements frozen, Gulf airlines are being nudged toward premium cabins over volume-driven passenger growth.

Meanwhile: India wants cheaper, more flexible LNG before locking in long-term US contracts, even as Washington encourages New Delhi to buy more American gas to secure tariff relief. Pricing, not politics, is likely to decide how much market share Qatar and the UAE retain.

Elsewhere, Oman is courting Indian metalmakers to build downstream aluminum capacity at Sohar.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

ENERGY — India is demanding competitive pricing and flexible terms to commit to long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with the US. The country’s largest importer, Petronet LNG, has said that lower prices are the key factor deciding its supply diversification, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s CEO Akshay Singh. Increased buying from the US is likely to reduce imports from traditional Gulf suppliers.

Why it matters: The US was India’s third-largest LNG supplier last year, accounting for 12% of imports, trailing Qatar and the UAE. American officials are pressing New Delhi to sign long-term energy contracts as part of a broader trade framework aimed at expanding US exports, as New Delhi unwinds Russian crude to secure an 18% US tariff cap.

American vs. Gulf supplies: While the US wants India to step up purchases, the US LNG contracts are typically linked to the volatile Henry Hub benchmark and involve take-or-pay clauses, alongside higher freight costs, making them less attractive than Brent-linked Middle Eastern supply.

What’s next: With India’s LNG demand set to rise sharply this decade, pricing dynamics are likely to take precedence over geopolitics for future purchases.

M&A — UAE-based Trueledger Technologies has expressed preliminary interest in acquiring up to 20% stake in Mumbai-based IT firm Silverline Technologies, according to a regulatory filing (pdf). The non-binding offer is subject to regulatory approval and open to further negotiations.

Silverline Technologies offers software and enterprise solutions to global clients. It recently debuted a beta version of its in-house AI chatbot and productivity tool, Silver AI, which is slated for commercial rollout this month.

Why it matters: Gulf capital has shown an increased appetite for Indian AI platforms as firms chase scalable, product-led technology players beyond traditional IT services. Silverline is attempting a pivot from legacy IT services toward a high-margin AI product play.

!_InsterLine_!

TELECOMS — Subsea route plugs into India, UAE and Singapore: Dubai-based Du is joining the Singapore-India-Gulf (SING) submarine cable system, partnering with Cyprus-based Datawave Networks to land the network in the UAE, Zawya reports, citing a press statement.

About the system: SING will link six hubs — Kalba, Muscat, Mumbai, Chennai, Kedah, and Singapore — creating a fresh east-west pathway between Southeast Asia, India, and the Gulf. The cable is expected to enter into service in 2030, with Kalba serving as the UAE landing point.

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Data point

USD 23 bn — this was the size of India’s auto exports in FY 2025. The automotive component industry grew at a compound annual growth rate of about 14% between FY 2020 and FY 2025 to reach roughly USD 80 bn, with exports rising 1.5x to nearly USD 23 bn, according to a joint study by the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India and Boston Consulting Group. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the top five export destinations for India’s auto industry.

Happening next week

The India AI Impact Summit 2026 will kick off in New Delhi on Monday and run through Friday (20 February) at Bharat Mandapam. The event is positioned as the first global AI Summit to be held in the Global South. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address the main plenary on 19 February.

World leaders attending the event include Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Estonia’s Alar Karis, Slovakia’s Peter Pellegrini, Sri Lanka’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, and Switzerland’s Guy Parmelin.

Big tech CEOs expected to attend include Sundar Pichai, Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Dario Amodei, and Demis Hassabis, among others.

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We’re hiring a technology reporter: EnterpriseAM is looking for a tech reporter to own the beat across Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and beyond.

This is a reporting job — not a desk job. You’ll be working sources, breaking stories, and writing about trendlines (not just headlines) in our voice and with the authority our readers expect. AI and digital infrastructure are huge features of the beat, but our interests are broad: fintech, telecoms, regulation, SaaS, and the bajillion ways tech is reshaping how businesses operate across the region.

We want someone who can pick up the phone or WhatsApp, get people talking, and turn what they say into stories that senior decision-makers need to read. We also expect you to attend industry events and maintain relationships with PR folks across the industry without selling out. If you’ve got 2-3 years of experience and the hunger to build a beat from the ground up, we want to hear from you. We’re also interested in hearing from veteran reporters. Spoken Arabic is strongly preferred.

The role is based in Cairo, though we’re open to remote for the right candidate. If you’re reading EnterpriseAM, you know what we’re about: A no-BS daily news outlet that tells busy execs, investors, founders, and ambitious people what they need to know about the trends shaping business, economy, finance, regulation, and public policy across our region. We write stories that have impact — about issues that matter — for a global audience of decisionmakers.

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The big story abroad

Markets are still dominating the conversation in the international business press, with all eyes on the tech rout that continues to hit US stocks, after the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2% yesterday and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%. This came as Cisco’s share price fell 12.3% after it missed its earnings targets, reigniting concerns around the impact of AI on existing industries.

In another sign that AI is becoming too big to ignore, Anthropic has now raised the second largest private tech fundraising round on record, with a USD 30 bn round raised at a USD 380 bn valuation, following OpenAI’s USD 40 bn round last year. The round was co-led by US investment firm Coatue and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, as well as other investors like ICONIQ and Abu Dhabi AI investor MGX, and includes previous allocations from Microsoft and Nvidia.

Also: The US administration repealed Obama-era policies that required automakers to measure and report their greenhouse gas emissions, with US President Donald Trump claiming it’s a “disastrous” policy that “severely damaged the American auto industry and drove up prices for American consumers.”

AND CLOSER TO HOME- Saudi Arabia replaced its investment minister, appointing Fahad Al Seif, head of investment strategy and global capital finance at the Public Investment Fund, at the helm of the ministry, and removing his predecessor Khalid Al Falih, who held the role since 2020. The move came as part of a wider cabinet reshuffle that also saw changes in the judicial and grievances spheres. It also comes as the Kingdom reassesses its spending priorities and continues to prioritize attracting investments for the purposes of economic diversification.

Market watch

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850k bbl / d, a 80k bbl / d drop from last month, due to economic uncertainty and higher oil prices, Reuters reports, citing the agency’s latest monthly report. Supply growth was also trimmed to 2.4 mn bbl / d from 2.5 mn bbl / d, but still runs far ahead of demand.

The gap: The agency now sees global supply exceeding demand by 3.73 mn bbl / d this year, close to last month ’s projection and equal to roughly 4% of global demand.

Opec is telling a different story — as usual: The group held its demand growth outlook steady, penciling in a rise of 1.38 mn bbl / d, Reuters reported, citing the group’s latest monthly report (pdf). That’s some 530k bbl / d in disagreement with the IEA, according to our calculations.

But even Opec’s own numbers point to near-term softness for its barrels. Demand for Opec+ crude is expected to fall by 400k bbl / d in 2Q, with group demand averaging 42.2 mn bbl / d, down from 42.6 mn bbl / d in 1Q.

Why this matters: This all comes as we wait for Opec+’s decision for supply after 1Q ends and the pause they said they would take seemingly expires, especially as any abrupt hikes risk turning a manageable surplus into a price problem.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

India’s protectionist policy is edging out UAE carriers from the India-Gulf aviation corridor

A surge in aircraft capacity, long-term network ambitions, and India’s protectionist policies are all reshaping the competition between Gulf and Indian airlines. As the Indian aviation industry pushes to grow its international expansion, market share for UAE-based airlines’ is shrinking.

Incumbents boxed in: Dubai and Abu Dhabi are nearly maxed out on seat quotas set by UAE’s bilateral agreements with India. Without new bilateral pacts with UAE and Qatar — which New Delhi has blocked to protect its local carriers — Emirates and Qatar Airways are forced to chase premiumization over volume.

On the Abu Dhabi-India corridor — accounting for 4.5% of the total international market — a bilateral limit caps seats at 50k per week. As a result, 54.5 mn potential travelers will “remain unserved or must utilize indirect, higher-cost routes between 2026 and 2035,” according to a Tourism Economics report (pdf). Doubling the bilateral quotas would add 3.5 mn additional inbound passengers through 2030, drastically reducing the unmet demand.

While Dubai flag carrier Emirates has repeatedly lobbied to ease seat caps between India and the UAE, India has resisted these demands to prioritize the expansion of local carriers. Mumbai-based Indigo supports the government’s policy as it scales its own international footprint — to the dismay of UAE-based carriers. “We’ve been stuck with 65k seats in each direction for just over 11 years now (during which period the demand for travel has grown exponentially). For every seat we sell, there are probably 10 takers,” Emirates’ President Tim Clark told Times of India last year.

Corridor in transition: The India-Gulf aviation bridge has long been shaped by migrant labor and transit traffic, but policy measures and capacity expansion on both sides are altering the balance. “Indian carriers largely cater to point-to-point traffic in the Gulf and are now gearing up for connecting traffic,” aviation analyst and former network planner Ameya Joshi told EnterpriseAM. These ambitions are running into direct competition with Gulf carriers.

India’s market play

India is expanding its airport infrastructure to meet international travel demand. India’s busiest airports Bengaluru, Delhi, and Goa have all added terminals or runways in the last 18 months. Indian carriers are using this new bandwidth to schedule more direct international flights during peak hours, especially to the Gulf.

India’s largest airline, Indigo, operates international services from multiple Indian cities to several Gulf markets. Air India Express has expanded its international services from hubs such as Bengaluru and Delhi, particularly on the Gulf route. New low-cost players like Al Hind Air are also preparing to enter the market in 2026, targeting price-sensitive tier-2 Indian city routes.

Looking ahead, the pace at which bilateral limits change will shape how durable India’s recent gains prove to be. “Bilateral restrictions won’t ease overnight. They will ease at a time when Indian carriers are ready to compete effectively with the Gulf players,” Joshi said.

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Oman pitches downstream aluminium projects to Indian manufacturers

Oman is scouting for downstream metal processing investments from Indian companies, targeting aluminum rolling, extrusion, and fabrication. The Omani government is pitching to Indian manufacturers to set up value-added aluminum operations — spanning automotive components, construction materials, and packaging — anchored around the Sohar industrial and port complex, Business Standard reports.

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Why it matters: The push aims to attract export-oriented Indian downstream capacity to Oman’s industrial clusters, as Muscat looks to position its aluminum ecosystem as a regional manufacturing and export base for the GCC, Africa, and Europe. Oman seeks to leverage India’s manufacturing experience through joint ventures, technology partnerships, and longer-term supply arrangements.

Investment tie-up: Oman-based Multi Bond Metal signed an MoU with Ladayn, OQ’s industrial ecosystem, to set up an 8k-ton coil-coating and lamination line in Oman, with an investment of USD 4.5 mn.

IN CONTEXT- The outreach follows the signing of a comprehensive economic partnership agreement between the two countries in December. Over the last five years, bilateral investments have reached USD 5 bn, while Oman-India trade reached USD 10.5 bn in FY 2025.

Adani enters nuclear power race

Adani Power has set up a nuclear generation and distribution subsidiary, Adani Atomic Energy, The Economic Times reports.The firm’s venture into nuclear power could create investment windows for Gulf investors, particularly the SWFs, which already own a share of the pie in Adani Group companies.

Policy revamp: The move follows new laws introduced in December that dismantled the state’s decades-old monopoly on nuclear power and invited private capital into the sector for the first time.

Why it matters: It aligns perfectly with the India-UAE civil nuclear energy ties, positioning Adani as a private vehicle for cross-border joint ventures in small modular reactors to power the corridor’s high-growth AI and data center hubs. India and the UAE are exploring partnership to develop large nuclear reactors and small modular reactors.

This marks the group’s entry into the nuclear power segment as it seeks to phase out coal-fired power projects. Adani Power has previously outlined plans to replace its 18 GW thermal capacity with 30 GW of nuclear capacity as legacy power purchase agreements expire.

The pattern: This comes as Tata Power evaluates three potential sites across the country for future nuclear power projects. Adani is positioning itself alongside Tata as a private-sector counterpart to the government’s ambitious 100 GW nuclear target by 2047. India currently has 8.7 GW of nuclear capacity.

Budgetary tailwind: India’s 2026 national budget handed the new entrants, Tata and Adani in this case, a major advantage by extending customs duty exemptions on nuclear equipment until 2035 — crucial for a company that will likely need to import reactor technology.

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Juspay lands in Dubai International Financial Center

Juspay makes Middle East debut in DIFC

Bengaluru-based fintech firm Juspay launched a regional headquarters in Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), according to a statement. The new base will help boost Juspay’s engagement with GCC-based institutions, with a focus on the region’s aviation, financial services, e-commerce, and hospitality sectors.

Juspay provides a unified, institutional-grade payment platform for companies such as Amazon, Google, and HSBC. It already operates in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and the US. Juspay said the expansion is a long-term commitment to building a regulated, enterprise-grade payments infrastructure tailored to the Middle East’s fast-evolving digital economy.

Ashok Leyland to set up assembly plant in Saudi Arabia

Chennai-based auto manufacturer Ashok Leyland is ramping up its overseas push with a new assembly facility in Saudi Arabia and a strategic partnership in Indonesia to tap demand in emerging markets. The firm is setting up a Saudi assembly unit through its UAE arm, after its Ras Al Khaimah plant crossed full utilization, The Times of India reports. The Saudi plant will mainly cater to local demand, enabling the firm to cut costs, avoid customs duties, and open doors for government procurement.

India-based infrastructure developer Ashoka Buildcon and Saudi construction firm BEC Arabia secured a USD 192 mn contract to construct the One Hotel project in Diriyah, MEP Middle East reports.
India-based renewables firm KPI Green Energy landed a contract to supply, install, and commission a solar-plus-battery system for a containerized data center in the UAE, Meed reports.

MENA AI funding hits USD 858 mn in 2025, led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia

MENA AI venture funding climbed to USD 858 mn in 2025 as AI-native ventures dominated investments and Gulf markets anchored momentum, capturing 22% of total VC funding, according to a Magnitt report. AI-native firms — companies that embed AI in their core operations and framework — pulled in 69% of total AI funding, or USD 589 mn. AI-enabled ventures, which use AI as a tool to boost their systems, accounted for the rest, raising USD 269 mn.

The top players: The UAE captured 60% of the region’s total AI funding at USD 519 mn, a 267% surge y-o-y, with AI-native startups accounting for USD 392 mn. Saudi Arabia followed with USD 235 mn in investments, representing 27% of total AI funding and climbing 248% y-o-y, anchored by USD 170 mn in AI-native capital. Egypt raised USD 73 mn across 15 transactions, up 88% y-o-y and accounting for 8% of regional AI funding.

The sectoral breakdown: Sports and fitness topped AI funding, pulling in USD 250 mn — driven entirely by Xpanceo’s USD 250 mn Series A — and accounting for 29% of total AI investment. Fintech followed with USD 157 mn, up 198% y-o-y, while enterprise software attracted USD 104 mn, a 131% increase y-o-y. IT solutions raised USD 63 mn and real estate secured USD 56 mn, largely due to Nawy’s USD 52 mn Series A.

Deployments were balanced between early-stage ventures and more mature companies across the region, which is a sign of a maturing market that is looking towards larger ticket sizes and growing AI ventures but also maintains a focus on early-stage firms, Magnitt’s Research Department Manager Farah El Nahlawi told EnterpriseAM. Investment ticket sizes were varied, with AI transactions ranging from as low as USD 3 mn to Xpances’s USD 250 mn — a mix of large outliers and smaller rounds.

Case in point: Pre-seed and seed AI transactions rose 56% y-o-y to 117 transactions. Meanwhile, Series A activity scaled, with transaction count increasing to 10 from six and funding surging to USD 485 mn. This performance points to a maturing pipeline, involving a strong early formation alongside a growing cohort of AI startups advancing toward commercial scale.

Strong activity across every stage of the startup pipeline was Saudi Arabia’s main highlight this year, supporting a more resilient AI ecosystem, El Nahlawi told us. This is evidenced by a 79% surge in AI transaction volume (reaching 68 transactions) and widespread support for early and mid-stage companies.

Egypt’s AI sector is more skewed towards utility and addressing needs, El Nahlawi said. The country’s relatively smaller market size and liquidity constraints, compounded by currency and macro challenges, are making it a regional hub for applied AI. Funding is directed toward solutions that meet immediate demand, such as proptech and fintech, rather than areas with more uncertain growth.

What’s next? The AI and VC ecosystem outlook is positive for the UAE and KSA this year thanks to strong capital flows, sovereign support, and rising international interest, El Nahlawi told us. Despite risks from higher interest rates, weaker oil prices, and geopolitical tensions, current low rates and market optimism support growth. With regional AI funding up fivefold since 2021, continued investment and ecosystem development position AI as a pillar of the region’s venture growth in 2026.

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MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were mostly in the red this morning, with AI jitters hitting US stocks also reaching sentiment in the region. Both Japan’s Nikkei and Topix fell around 0.6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.4% South Korea’s Kospi was the only outlier, adding 0.5%.

Sensex	82,802	-0.5% (YTD: -1.8%)
NIFTY 50	25,522	-1.1% (YTD: -1.2%)
ADX	10,629	-0.5% (YTD: +6.2%)
DFM	6,734	+0.1% (YTD: +11.3%)
Tadawul	11,251	+0.7% (YTD: +7.2%)
EGX30	50,490	+1.6% (YTD: +20.7%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,083	+0.2% (YTD: -2.6%)
QSE	11,515	+0.1% (YTD: +7%)
S&P 500	6,832	-1.5% (YTD: -0.2%)
FTSE 100	10,408	+0.06% (YTD: +4.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,996	-0.2% (YTD: +3.8%)
Brent crude	USD 67.48	-0.06%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.14	-2.2%
Gold	USD 4,980	+1.2%
BTC	USD 66,665	-1.2%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

India clears 114-jet Rafale plan ahead of Macron visit

India’s Defense Acquisition Council cleared a landmark INR 3.2 tn (USD 35.9 bn) proposal to induct 114 Rafale fighter jets from manufacturer Dassault Aviation ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit next week, Hindu Businessline reports. The aircraft is used by MENA countries such as Egypt, Qatar and the UAE.

Why it matters: Of the 114 aircraft, 96 will be built in India through a technology transfer with the French manufacturer, positioning India as a regional maintenance and spare parts hub for the jets.

The agreement now awaits clearance from the Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by the prime minister.

CALENDAR

14-18 February (Saturday-Wednesday): IHGF Delhi Fair (Spring), New Delhi.

16-20 February (Monday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

17-19 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Mumbai Climate Week, Mumbai.

17-19 February (Tuesday-Thursday): French President Emmanuel Macron to visit India.

18-22 February (Wednesday-Sunday): Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to visit India.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

4 March (Wednesday): Holi.

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards, Bengaluru.

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan – Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Ul-Fitr.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Plastiworld India, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to India.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar Freetrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced).
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

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