Emirates NBD eyes another Indian bank acquisition

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Emirates seeks higher India-UAE seat caps; IOC buys UAE Upper Zakum barrels

Good afternoon, readers. We are starting the week with a light issue covering updates across the energy, banking, and aviation sectors, with UAE-based companies grabbing headlines.

Emirates NBD is reportedly making a play for another bank takeover in India. This time, the Dubai-based lender is eyeing Mumbai-based IDBI Bank, which has some 60% of its stake on offer. Canada’s Fairfax will be the primary rival to Emirates NBD’s bid.

Plus: Emirates Airlines is pitching for an increase in bilateral seat quota limits, which have remained frozen for years amid Indian regulators’ protectionist policy favoring domestic carriers.

We also have an exclusive chat with the Dubai director of Chennai-based Casagrand, who walks us through the realty firm’s expansion plans for the UAE.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

AVIATION — Dubai-based carrier Emirates is seeking an expansion of bilateral seat limits between India and the UAE to cater to growing demand along the India-Gulf routes. Emirates is pinning its hopes on government-to-government talks, as demand along the routes runs well ahead of available seats, the Economic Times reports, citing the airline’s CCO Adnan Kazim.

Why it matters: Under the existing bilateral framework, weekly seat entitlements on the India-Dubai market are capped at 65k seats per side, while the India-Abu Dhabi market is capped at 55k seats per week since 2015. Demand on the India-Dubai route is running at close to 200k seats a week — more than 2.5 times the current entitlement.

Regulatory hurdle: India has maintained a protectionist stance on bilateral seat limits in a bid to allow domestic private airlines to tap into international aviation routes. This has effectively edged out competitors such as Emirates, whose expansion remains curtailed by the bilateral seat limits.

Emirates currently operates 167 weekly flights to India and is seeking additional traffic rights as part of the ongoing India-UAE air services negotiations. India is a priority feeder market for its Dubai hub, which connects onward traffic across the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.

OIL WATCH — India’s key state-run refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), bought about 2 mn bbl of UAE-produced Upper Zakum crude through commodities trader Mercuria as part of a wider 6 mn bbl crude purchase for April delivery from West Africa and the Middle East, the Economic Times reports.

The purchases, made through tenders issued last week, also include Angolan Pazflor and Nigerian Agbami cargoes sold from Angola and Nigeria.

Venezuela in parallel: The IOC and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation have together bought 2 mn bbl of Venezuelan Merey crude from Trafigura for delivery in the second half of April.

Why it matters: The buying points to continued spot demand by Indian refiners for MENA crude even as refiners diversify sources and avoid Russian barrels for near-term delivery windows.

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Data point

INR 1.01 tn (USD 12.15 bn) — That’s the value of India’s automobile exports in 2025, surpassing USD 12 bn for the first time, led by higher passenger-vehicle and two-wheeler shipments, according to Commerce Ministry data.

Export hotspot: South Africa and Saudi Arabia were the top destination markets for India-built cars and sport-utility vehicles at INR 113.2 bn (USD 1.25 bn) and INR 107.8 bn (USD 1.19 bn), while shipments of passenger vehicles shipments to the UAE stood at INR 42.6 bn (USD 471 mn), underscoring the Gulf’s role as a steady export market for India’s automakers.

The big story abroad

Global headlines are focused on Asian markets’ broad rally, riding the wave of incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in snap elections yesterday. In anticipation of Takaichi’s reflationary agenda — more spending and tax cuts — markets responded bullishly, sending Japan’s Nikkei climbing 4.2% to an all-time high.

Gold rebounded on the news: Partially boosted by Takaichi’s victory, gold rose above USD 5k per ounce, jumping as much as 1.7% in early trading and recovering half of the losses it sustained since dropping from a historic high late last month. Helping the recovery is also promising backing from the likes of Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the Chinese central bank.

The Super Bowl LX is still underway, with the Seattle Seahawks leading the game at 29 points while the New England Patriots behind at only seven points, as we press send. The Seahawks are seeking their second-ever title, while the Patriots are fighting for their seventh title.

Market watch

CAPITAL MARKETS — Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers, pumping in a net USD 897 mn into Indian equities through the first week of February, according to data from National Securities Depository Limited.

What’s changed? The shift comes amid optimism following the announcement of the India-US trade agreement, which effectively halted a month-long selling streak and stabilized the INR from its record low of 91.72, reversing January’s heavy outflows.

Why this matters: Flows were volatile, tracking policy and trade cues. Markets dipped after the Union Budget proposed a higher securities transaction tax on derivatives from 0.02% to 0.05%, but rebounded sharply after US President Donald Trump announced a cut in tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. The INR’s recovery to 90.60 significantly reduces the cost of hedging for cross-border transactions and imports.

Optimism rings: India’s external position has improved relative to Asian peers — the reduction in effective tariffs and the withdrawal of punitive duties should help restore India’s trade balance with the US after the pressures. India now compares favorably with several Asian emerging markets that still face higher effective US tariffs, the Hindu Businessline reports, citing a JM Financial report.

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Emirates NBD bids for India’s IDBI Bank

Emirates NBD makes its second M&A play for an Indian bank: Emirates NBD is among international suitors who submitted bids to acquire a stake in India’s state-owned Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), a transaction expected to close next month, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know.

Who else is vying for IDBI? The Dubai-based lender is reportedly competing against Canada’s Fairfax for 60.7% of IDBI — estimated to be worth over USD 7.5 bn. Reuters also name-checked Kotak Mahindra Bank as a potential bidder, but the bank denied the claim. IDBI Bank’s market cap sits at USD 12.6 bn, with its share price climbing 26% over the past year in anticipation of the sale, which was first announced in 2022.

This has been a long time coming: Emirates NBD was previously said to be eyeing the bank in 2024 and was among those shortlisted for the sale in August.

Our take? Emirates NBD’s twin bids for IDBI and RBL signal a multi-bn USD push into India’s financial sector that we think could eventually tilt toward consolidation. The bid suggests Emirates NBD’s push into India remains intact despite the regulatory hurdles it’s navigating. The DFM-listed lender’s USD 3 bn attempt to take over RBL Bank hit a snag last week, triggering change-of-control reviews.

India laid the groundwork for this divestment: IDBI was reclassified as a private-sector bank in 2019, bringing it under the 74% foreign ownership cap and allowing Emirates NBD to pursue a 60% stake. In addition, IDBI already has a footprint in Dubai through its DIFC-based corporate branch, which is regulated by the DFSA — a factor that could also help streamline the fit-and-proper due diligence for Emirates NBD.

The pattern: India is opening its banking sector to foreign investments as part of a bid to scale up its domestic banks onto a global stage. Japanese investors have already made significant inroads in the financial sector, most notably the USD 4 bn acquisition of Shriram Finance by MUFG. Rivalling these investments are Gulf majors, such as Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, which acquired a 41% stake worth USD 1 bn in Sammaan Capital.

Exclusive: Casagrand lands on Dubai Islands with AED 420 mn debut

Chennai-based developer Casagrand is making its debut in the UAE with an AED 420 mn (USD 114.3 mn) investment in Dubai Islands for its Hermina project. In an exclusive interview with EnterpriseAM, Casagrand Dubai Director Luthfullah K (LinkedIn) details a strategy to build a 6 mn sq ft regional pipeline over the next three years, following a record 156% surge in district transaction volumes. As an increasing number of Indian developers follow diaspora demand into the UAE, Casagrand is wagering that the waterfront residential clusters will outperform the city’s saturated hubs.

EnterpriseAM: Why debut in Dubai Islands instead of established hubs like Downtown or Business Bay?

Luthfullah K: Early-stage clusters like Dubai Islands offer an attractive risk-reward balance when backed by strong government vision and infrastructure investment. Unlike mature locations such as Downtown or Business Bay, Dubai Islands offers the window to create a lifestyle-led development at scale with long-term upside rather than density-driven constraints. It is a waterfront district aligned with the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. Casagrand Hermina is positioned to benefit from an early-mover advantage in a coastal corridor that combines beachfront living with proximity to the city’s core.

EnterpriseAM: How do you assess the property boom in the UAE markets? Is it here to stay?

Luthfullah K: What we are seeing today is growth driven by long-term fundamentals rather than short-term speculation. Regulatory transparency, world-class infrastructure, and sustained international demand have created a stable and resilient real estate environment. Demand is coming from end-users, global investors, and long-term residents, giving this cycle depth and durability. The market is well-positioned to remain strong over the medium to long term.

EnterpriseAM: How does Dubai’s regulatory environment and approval timelines compare with those in India, and does this influence your expansion plans? Are there plans to tap into UAE-based financing or private equity capital for this expansion?

Luthfullah K: Dubai offers a significantly faster, predictable regulatory framework. Approval timelines are clearly defined, processes are digitized, and there is strong coordination among authorities. For a project like Hermina, the time-to-market in Dubai can be meaningfully shorter, enabling quicker execution without compromising on quality. This efficiency is key to our decision to expand here. We remain open to exploring UAE-based financing and capital partnerships as part of our broader growth strategy. That said, our expansion is anchored in financial discipline and long-term sustainability.

EnterpriseAM: How do you assess competition from other India-based and regional developers entering Dubai at an unprecedented scale?

Luthfullah K: Competition is a natural outcome of a strong market and a sign of Dubai’s global appeal. However, scale alone does not define success. What ultimately differentiates developers is consistency in delivery, quality of execution, and customer trust. Casagrand has delivered homes to over 55k families, and its reputation for timely delivery positions us well in a competitive landscape. The market will naturally reward developers who bring depth, discipline, and long-term commitment.

EnterpriseAM: Beyond residential, are you evaluating mixed-use, hospitality, or commercial assets in the UAE to diversify revenue streams? What is your long-term strategy in the UAE market?

Luthfullah K: In a phased approach, we are actively evaluating land parcels across major master plans and emerging communities. The focus is on quality locations rather than rapid accumulation to keep the expansion sustainable while maintaining our standards. Our long-term strategy in the UAE includes evaluating mixed-use windows. While residential remains our immediate focus, we are actively assessing avenues that align with our design-led, lifestyle-oriented development philosophy.

13% income growth in India’s corporate sector in 3Q

India’s corporate sector delivered 13% income growth in 3Q FY 2026, but the headline performance figure conceals growing pressure beneath the surface.

The pattern: Excluding banking, financial services, and ins. firms (BFSI), revenues rose 11.7% and net income climbed 14.6% y-o-y, the Hindu Businessline reports. This upturn was supported by cuts in indirect taxation rates that lifted demand for automobiles and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). This demand-led boost, however, is increasingly being offset by rising costs and regulatory headwinds.

Details: Income growth slowed sequentially as margins came under strain. Rising prices of coal, industrial metals, and semiconductors pushed up input costs, while one-time provisions linked to implementing the new labor code added to the drag. As a result, gross margins for non-BFSI companies declined by 18 basis points during the quarter.

Why it matters: The implementation of the New Labour Codes for major IT players took a cumulative INR 54 bn one-time charge this quarter (INR 21.3 bn for Tata Consultancy Services and INR 12.9 bn for Infosys) as they restructured gratuity and leave encashment provisions to meet the new 50% wage definition, the Economic Times reports. A 2% increase in India employee costs could cut FY 2027 earnings estimates by 2-4% for IT firms.

What’s next? Autos and FMCG are expected to sustain momentum into 4Q, while cement, steel, and banks show improving demand trends, even as input and energy costs pose near-term risks.

Mahindra to invest USD 1.65 bn in new Maharashtra manufacturing hub

Indian automotive and farm-equipment manufacturer Mahindra & Mahindra will invest USD 1.65 bn (INR 149.7 bn) over the next 10 years to expand manufacturing capacity in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, according to a press release. Mahindra plans to build its largest integrated vehicle and tractor manufacturing facility, with production targeted to begin in 2028.

The details: Once fully operational, the plant is expected to have a capacity of more than 500k vehicles a year and 100k tractors a year. The facility will also manufacture powertrains, support electric-vehicle production, and anchor a supplier ecosystem to serve the new site as well as Mahindra’s existing factories.

Why it matters: Mahindra maintains a significant presence in the MENA region, exporting its SUVs, pickup trucks, and commercial vehicles in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan.

In context: Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest automaker, plans to invest INR 350 bn (USD 3.86 bn) in a new manufacturing plant in Gujarat with a capacity of up to 1 mn vehicles a year, while Toyota Motor, Suzuki Motor, and Hyundai Motor have together announced investments of about INR 1.45 tn (USD 16 bn) in India over the past year.

Trump-era crypto optimism unwinds

Retail crypto traders were back on uneasy ground last week after a sharp sell-off briefly dragged BTC below its post-election levels, reigniting fears of a fresh “crypto winter,” Bloomberg reports. BTC sank 13% in a single session last Thursday to around USD 60k — its steepest daily drop since the 2022 FTX collapse — before clawing back above USD 70k a day later. Even with the rebound, the cryptocurrency still ended the week down roughly 30%, unsettling investors who had assumed political backing and Wall Street adoption had made the market more resilient.

The immediate trigger was US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a move that cooled demand for risk-sensitive assets, including BTC and precious metals, Reuters argued. But analysts say the downturn was already in motion. “This contraction has been underway for several months and remains ongoing,” Kaiko research analyst Thomas Probst said, warning that thinning liquidity is making price swings sharper and more erratic.

The reversal marks a clear break from the Trump-fueled optimism that once pushed BTC past USD 125k, driven by expectations of a more crypto-friendly US administration, strong ETF inflows, and progress on industry-backed legislation. Those hopes have faded. Money has flowed out of crypto funds in recent months, the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial coin has lost much of its value, and key bills remain stalled in the US Senate — despite earlier bank forecasts calling for BTC to hit USD 300k by year-end.

For retail investors, the sell-off has cracked the idea that crypto now has a reliable price floor. With US policymakers ruling out direct intervention and Treasury officials dismissing calls to backstop BTC with public funds, traders are once again exposed to the asset class’s defining risk: volatility driven as much by narrative as fundamentals.

History suggests the pain can spill into the real economy. Prolonged downturns have often triggered layoffs, stalled innovation, and weaker confidence across the sector.

However, veterans argue the pattern is familiar. Every previous crypto winter has eventually given way to a new peak, albeit after long periods of losses and consolidation. “There are several things signifying that we are very close to a bottom, if not having achieved it,” said James Butterfill of CoinShares, signalling that the worst of this slump is over — even as investors brace for a longer chill.

MARKETS THIS MORNING

Asia-Pacific markets were a sea of green in early trading this morning as investors reacted to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s victory, which also sent gold soaring after ending last week in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi were leading gains.

Sensex	83,994	+0.5% (YTD: -1.9%)
NIFTY 50	25,859	+0.6% (YTD: -1.6%)
ADX	10,596	+0.3% (YTD: +5.7%)
DFM	6,764	+1.1% (YTD: +10.6%)
Tadawul	11,212.96	-0.04% (YTD: +6.92%)
EGX30	50,171	+0.2% (YTD: +20%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,171	-0.2% (YTD: -1.6%)
QSE	11,465	+0.4% (YTD: +6%)
S&P 500	6,932	+1.9% (YTD: +1.2%)
FTSE 100	10,398	+0.27% (YTD: +4.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,012	+0.24% (YTD: +3.5%)
Brent crude	USD 67.58	-0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.209	-6.22%
Gold	USD 5,014	+1.1%
BTC	USD 69,648	-0.5%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

India, Malaysia push trade, semiconductor ties during Modi visit

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim committed to boost bilateral trade and explore cooperation in semiconductors, defense, and other strategic sectors, during Modi’s two-day visit to Malaysia, according to an Information Ministry press release.

De-dollarization becomes functional: Bank Negara Malaysia and the Reserve Bank of India will operationalize a framework for INR-MYR invoicing and settlement in a push to promote local-currency trade settlement. For businesses, this means reduced forex conversion costs and a hedge against USD volatility in the USD 19.8 bn trade corridor.

Chip ambitions: Malaysia, which controls roughly 13% of global chip testing and packaging, is now a formal partner in India’s chip-making ambitions. This provides Indian firms like Tata Electronics — which was in talks to acquire Malaysian assets — with a direct line to 40 years of technical expertise to de-risk their domestic fabrication projects.

In the pipeline: The visit is Modi’s first since ties were elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership in August 2024, concluding with 11 agreements.

CALENDAR

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Pune International Business Summit (PIBS), SL Kirloskar Convention Center, JW Marriott, Pune.

14-18 February (Saturday-Wednesday): IHGF Delhi Fair (Spring), New Delhi.

16-20 February (Thursday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

4 March (Wednesday): Holi.

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards, Bengaluru.

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan – Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Ul-Fitr.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Plastiworld India, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to India.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced).
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

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Emirates NBD eyes another Indian bank acquisition

Today at a glance

Emirates seeks higher India-UAE seat caps; IOC buys UAE Upper Zakum barrels