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Big business likes labor reforms — but SMEs will be squeezed new data privacy act

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Eight core industries clock weakest performance

Good morning, friends. It’s one thing to call for reforms — another to manage (and pay for) the implementation costs when it finally comes. That’s the theme running through our first issue of the week, which opens with a deep dive into the Modi government’s long-awaited labor reforms. Big business is largely happy, but labor unions are grumbling and entrepreneurs warn that small and midsized businesses will need some breathing room.

Meanwhile, a policy expert warns that the digital data privacy act will raise compliance and operational costs for businesses in India — particularly for small businesses. And we have an exclusive story about an Indian startup that says it can make the cost of compliance more bearable for Gulf-based financial services businesses.

ALSO TODAY- Adani has completed offloading a stake in AWL Agri Business, while Jindal group is nearing an agreement to acquire Raigarh Champa Rail Infrastructure and Axis Bank is set to raise INR 50 bn in a strategic push.

^^ We have all of that and more, below.

SIGN OF THE TIMES-

Banks and refineries in India and China are starting to comply with US sanctions on Russia’s two main oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, Reuters reports, citing a senior US Treasury official.

These institutions are “risk-averse” and mindful of maintaining access to Western financial systems, the official said, adding that both countries are reassessing their exposure after last month’s sanctions targeting revenue Moscow allegedly uses to fund the war effort in Ukraine.

REMEMBER- Reliance pulled the plug on Russian imports last week, switching away from Moscow’s crude for its export-oriented facility.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- India’s core sectors ran into a wall in October. The eight key infrastructure industries that together make up 40% of the industrial production index posted zero growth, their weakest showing in 14 months, government data shows.

  • The drag: Gains in steel and cement were wiped out by a sharp contraction in energy (coal, oil, gas, power).
  • The silver lining: Manufacturing likely held firm thanks to festive demand, ICRA’s Aditi Nayar notes, according to remarks picked up by the Hindu.
  • What it means: Expect broader industrial growth (IIP) to slide to c. 2.5–3.5% (down from 4% in September) when the full data drops. The takeaway? It’s a supply-side glitch (mining / power), not a demand collapse — construction activity is still moving.


#2- Kezad locks in AED 1.1 bn in Indian manufacturing pledges. AD Ports’ Kezad Group has signed land-lease agreements with Indian heavyweights Jindal Saw and Haldiram, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

  • Jindal Saw is investing AED 1 bn to build a 400k sqm seamless steel pipe plant in Kezad Musaffah. The facility targets 300k tons of annual output of steel pipes and tubes for the oil and gas export market.
  • Haldiram Snacks, India’s largest sweets and snacks manufacturer, is setting up its first regional hub, a 114k sqm facility in Kezad Al Ma’mourah that will house 11 production lines for the Indian sweets giant.


#3- Mumbai-based private-sector lender Axis Bank will raise up to INR 50 bn (USD 559 mn) through a private placement of debt securities, Reuters reports. The fundraising includes INR 20 bn (USD 224 mn) in debentures and an additional INR 30 bn (USD 335 mn) via a green-shoe option. The bank hasn’t offered a timeline for the transaction.

Context: Axis Bank’s board voted in April to raise INR 350 bn (USD 3.91 bn) via debt and another INR 200 bn worth of equity.


#4- Rajasthan says “no” to 3.2 GW of new coal. The Rajasthan Electricity Regulatory Commission (RERC) has rejected a bid to build four coal-fired plants, ruling that the expansion contradicts India’s green transition and isn’t supported by future demand, according to a regulatory order. RERC is the primary regulator for the central indian state, which is already home to 35.4 GW of renewable capacity.

The details: State-run Rajasthan Urja Vikas and IT Services wanted approval ten tender for four coal power plants of 800 MW each. RERC ruled that the idea wasn’t consistent with the national government’s resource plan, which projects the state will need only 1.9 GW of new coal power capacity through 2036.

The ruling warns that long-term coal contracts would lock-in costly power for 25 years, burdening consumers with high bills, undermining the transition to renewables, and significantly worsening air quality by burning an estimated 40k tonnes of coal daily.

Why this matters: It’s a rare instance of a state regulator curbing thermal expansion while peers are still rushing to coal to meet base-load demand.


#5- Two Indian companies have been snarled in the US Department latest sanctions on what it calls Iran’s “shadow oil networks,” ANI reports. Among the 17 additions to the list are RN Ship Management and TR6 Petro India LLP, which Foggy Bottom accused of helping move Iranian crude and petroleum products. Washington is aiming to curb revenue that it says funds Iran’s nuclear program, military activity, and regional allies.

YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM MENA <> India, your c-suite briefing on the movement of trade, investment, people, and ideas along one of the world’s most exciting corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday at 9am UAE, we dive deep into the business, finance, economy, and policy headlines and trendlines that will move markets and set the tone for your day.

Indian businesses want a piece of MENA, the world’s most exciting economic bloc and an exporter of capital on a global scale. Major corporations and startups alike want to grow in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and beyond. Large groups are looking to the UAE for finance, the chance to monetize their businesses, or as a regional headquarters, while startups are attracted by regulatory clarity and new opportunities for expansion. And, of course, MENA is a magnet for outstanding Indian talent across just about every discipline you can name.

Arab businesses and governments alike look at India and see not just the world’s largest population, but one of the planet’s most compelling business stories. Whether it’s investment in energy, technology, manufacturing, or banking, MENA businesses and governments are deploying capital in India on a scale never-before seen. They’re eager to attract the subcontinent’s best and brightest to invest and do business in the Arab world — and who wouldn’t want to sell into India, whether you’re exporting energy, petrochemicals, or production inputs?

EnterpriseAM MENA <> India is for C-suite execs and entrepreneurs — and bankers, business development pros, founders, and builders. Whether you’re reading us in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Mumbai, New Delhi, or points in between, this is your daily dose of fact and inspiration if you care about what happens along this exciting corridor.

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DATA POINTS-

iPhone exports from India reached 3.4 mn units in October, a 40% m-o-m growth compared to September sales and a 20% y-o-y increase, Hindu Businessline reports. The US is the primary export destination, commanding a 61% share of total volume. The UAE accounted for some 704k units. Overall, India exported 6.63 mn smartphones, marking a 26% m-o-m rise.

REMEMBER- Apple recorded USD 9 bn in domestic sales in India in FY 2024-25, with one in five iPhones sold globally coming from its manufacturing plants here, according to Business Standard.

MARKET WATCH-

JPMorgan is bullish on India: JPMorgan Private Bank favors rotating towards Indian equities over Chinese stocks, citing stronger domestic demand and policy support in India despite higher valuations, Bloomberg reports. The shift comes after Indian benchmarks have trailed major Asian peers this year, even as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged to a four-year high.

The “window” to move into India “is still open,” said Timothy Fung, the bank’s head of Asia equity strategy, citing expectations of 6-7% GDP growth and double-digits earnings expansion. He noted that India’s relative underperformance this year has created an entry point for JPMorgan.

The bank framed the view as a valuation-based rotation rather than a change in its broader outlook on China.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The latest US proposal to end the war in Ukraine is dominating headlines this morning. US and Ukrainian officials who met yesterday in Geneva said they made progress on a new version of the controversial 28-point plan that would have seen Ukraine acquiesce to most of Russia’s territorial and military demands. It’s still unclear what issues have been resolved during the talks, which come at a difficult moment for Kyiv after slowly losing ground against Russia in a number of key regions. (Reuters | Financial Times | Bloomberg)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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POLICY WATCH

Modi government implements labor reforms after five-year delay

Major reform: The Modi government has formally implemented the four new labor codes, replacing decades-old laws with a modern and cohesive framework, the Labor Ministry said in a statement. Although the laws were passed by parliament in 2020 and ratified by state legislatures, they were still on hold until now. The laws come into force immediately.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Here’s the breakdown: The four labor codes will replace 29 antiquated and fragmented laws, some dating back to the 1930s and 1950s:

  • The Code on Wages establishes a universal minimum wage floor to help ensure timely, non-discriminatory wage payment;
  • The Industrial Relations Code streamlines dispute resolution and modernizes employment termination and negotiation rules;
  • The Code on Social Security extends mandatory social security (Provident Fund, ins. etc.) to all workers, including gig and platform workers;
  • The Occupational Safety, Health, and Working Conditions Code mandates improved safety standards, especially in hazardous industries. It also governs working hours.

Big business is welcoming the move: India’s leading business association, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), has hailed the implementation of the new legislation as a historic milestone. “These codes ensure better wages, stronger social security, enhanced workplace safety and a more predictable regulatory environment for both workers and industry,” Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General of CII said in a statement. The reform, “brings India in line with global standards, eases compliance, empowers enterprises, and strengthens the foundations for higher productivity, greater competitiveness and accelerated job creation,” he added.

The Association of Indian Entrepreneurs is a bit less cheery, flagging that the rules will raise operating costs for small and midsized businesses. It wants the government to go easy on implementation deadlines and is asking for “transitional support,” according to reports.

Labor isn’t as happy: Ten large trade unions have come out swinging against the rollout of the new legislation, calling it a “deceptive fraud” perpetrated against the country's workforce, Reuters reports. The unions have announced plans for nationwide protests on Wednesday, demanding an immediate withdrawal of the laws.

Labor objects to provisions that make it easier for businesses to hire and fire staff. The rules make it easier for smaller companies to engage in layoffs and give all businesses more flexibility in how they manage their workforces. It also allows longer factory shifts and night work for women.

The laws include sector-specific compliance provisions for employers on issues including registration, licensing, appointment letters, social security coverage, regulatory inspections, and gender-specific norms. Key highlights include a recognition of gig workers, who will also now have access to a welfare fund. Fixed-term employees of a firm are now entitled to all staff benefits, including gratuity after one year of service.

Contract workers are guaranteed social security, annual medical checks, and fair treatment standards. Employers in designated “hazardous industries” are required to set up safety committees and offer annual health checkups.

Compliance burden: Businesses are mandated to conduct a thorough internal audit to align compensation, employment contracts, safety protocols, and compliance mechanisms with the new codes.

Timing, politics and analysis: The Modi government delayed implementation of the laws for five years fearing electoral pushback as labor unions opposed the laws. Implementation of the laws comes days after the prime minister's party outperformed expectations in the recent state legislature elections in the state of Bihar. The electoral feat has provided a unique political window for Modi to implement potentially contentious reforms well ahead of the 2029 general election. With inflation in control and other macroeconomic indicators appearing stable, Modi may use this window to further business-friendly reforms, including privatization of state enterprises and loosening norms to allow greater participation for foreign investors.

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POLICY WATCH

Enterprise Explains: New data privacy law will increase compliance and operational costs for businesses

Decoding the new data laws: India’s recently implemented Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act has introduced stricter data-governance rules that will increase compliance and operation costs as businesses introduce structural changes to their systems, Meghna Bal, director at the Eysa Centre and a tech-policy expert, told EnterpriseAM.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

The framework tightens consent requirements, limits how long firms can retain customer information, and restricts the conditions under which personal data can be shared with third parties.

What’s changing? Businesses must clearly state data-use purposes upfront and delete customer information after three years of inactivity unless the data is needed to meet legal requirements. Users must be notified 48 hours before their data is erased. The rules also require firms to maintain detailed records and implement processes to support user requests for data access, correction, and erasure.

Compliance costs will squeeze small businesses: “The costs are going to be massive, and I don’t think companies realize just how much this legislation will cost,” Bal said, noting that the act was “framed with big companies in mind, with little concern for the ability of small firms to comply.” She added that small businesses may need temporary exemptions under Section 17(3) “to remain viable” during the transition.

And multinationals will feel pressure, too: Bal said multinational companies may face bottlenecks as compliance decisions “aren’t made locally” and require global coordination. She noted that the legislation’s failure to recognize contractual necessity creates challenges for sectors dependent on third-party data flows. “For telcos, even terminating a call on another network becomes unclear because the other operator won’t have consent from non-customers — it upends interconnection,” she said.

Compliance will require broad structural changes to how companies design user interfaces and the rebuilding of backend systems. “A data protection law impacts everything from internal data operations to external interfaces,” Bal told us, adding that companies need time to redesign systems “in ways that don’t increase user friction.”

It’s going to have a big impact on how companies advertise: With tighter limits on data sharing, companies will need to rely more on their own first-party datasets for behavioural targeting. Reduced consent-driven datasets may prompt companies to rethink marketing workflows and data-handling systems. “Shifting to first-party systems is not easy — smaller businesses compete today because they can leverage the targeted advertising capability of larger platforms,” Bal said. She added that using public datasets will also become harder since companies must verify whether the individual made the data public — “an impossible task under the current wording of the act.”

The timeline: The DPDP Act gives companies up to 18 months to get their houses in order on consent management, breach reporting, and deletion protocols. “The 18-month window is already compressed compared to the EU, Japan, and Brazil, all of which provided 24 months,” Bal said. The new law is more burdensome than in any of these jurisdictions because it requires consent as a basis for almost all data processing.

Firms will need to ensure they can trace data flows end-to-end to avoid incomplete or inaccurate deletions that could attract penalties.

IN CONTEXT: India’s new DPDP Act — the country’s first comprehensive digital privacy law — came into effect on 14 November. It requires explicit consent for collecting or processing personal data and grants users the right to access, correct, and erase their information. Companies must disclose why data is being collected, ensure secure processing, and report breaches within 72 hours. The law applies to all digital personal data in India, including overseas firms offering goods or services to users in the country.

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STARTUP WATCH

Indian startup OnFinance readies launch of NeoGPT-GCC for Gulf regulators and banks

Bengaluru-based generative AI startup OnFinance AI is moving in on the Middle East’s banking and regulatory sector, founder and CEO Anuj Srivastava told EnterpriseAM in an exclusive interview. The firm will accelerate the rollout of its GCC-specific AI model and explore expansion into markets where agreement sizes are 2x to 3x larger than in India.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Marquee clients: Founded in 2023, the startup currently serves more than 25 Indian banking, financial services, and ins. institutions, including the BSE, HDFC Securities, Kotak Mutual Fund, Nippon Mutual Fund, and Aditya Birla Capital Digital, among other heavyweight mutual funds.

A GPT for the Gulf region in the works: Central to OnFinance’s Middle East expansion strategy is the NeoGPT-GCC, a fine-tuned large language model trained on regulatory data from over 40 authorities, including the Saudi Central Bank (Sama), the Central Bank of Kuwait, and the Central Bank of the UAE. The model is also trained with data from multi-sector regulators including Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority, the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority, and the Financial Services Regulatory Authority in Abu Dhabi.

How does it work? The model parses Arabic circulars, legacy PDFs, and digital and scanned regulatory documents to convert them into “plain English action tables” for compliance and audit teams, said Srivastava. OnFinance claims a translation accuracy rate of 98%. Built on a modular, rules-driven architecture, the system supports local identity formats, sanctions lists, and region-specific workflows across banks, insurers, and capital-markets entities.

Strategic entry: With the NeoGPT GCC already live, a formal market rollout and soft launch of the LLM is slated for late December, Srivastava told us. The firm plans to hire two Gulf-based team members to support on-premise implementations.

Scaling the order book: Srivastava says OnFinance is also closing-in on its first Southeast Asian client, one of the largest bourses in ASEAN, as it works to export its ComplianceOS and InvestigativeOS platforms to regulators, exchanges, and large financial institutions across emerging markets.

OnFinance AI secured USD 4.2 mn in a pre-series A round in September led by Peak XV’s Surge, one of India’s largest VC funds, along with participation from Groww Founders’ Fund, MarsShot VC, Climber Capital, and existing investors Indian Angel Network and Silverneedle Ventures. The cash will fund OnFinance’s expansion into the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and US markets to advance its BFSI-focused LLM research.

Funding: OnFinance is also seeking funding from several Gulf-based private offices, including the Seed Group (a company under the private office of UAE’s Saeed bin Ahmed Al Maktoum). The company is also interested in working with consultancy firm Protiviti to approach GCC-based investors.

The company revamped its go-to-market strategy after pitching early proofs-of-concept to First Abu Dhabi Bank and Arab National Bank last year. The plans stalled due to product immaturity at the time, but Srivastava says the platform is now production-ready for the region’s finance industry.

Data sovereignty and security: With GCC institutions insisting on data residency, OnFinance is going ahead with full on-premise deployments rather than going for the cloud. The company says it has built enterprise-grade governance tools including data-lineage tracking, model-drift monitoring, policy-enforcement guardrails, and role-based access. “Banks in the Middle East are extremely bullish on GenAI, but uncompromising on data security,” Srivastava said, noting that GCC firms prefer vetted open-source LLMs over closed-source AI stacks.

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M&A WATCH

Adani Enterprises sells final 7% stake in AWL

AdaniEnterprises (AEL) sold its remaining 7% stake in AWL Agri Business (formerly Adani Wilmar) in a block trade priced at INR 275 per share, completing its full exit from the packaged-foods company, PTI reports. The sale concludes AEL’s multi-stage divestment, with total realization from its exit amounting to roughly INR 157 bn (USD 1.88 bn).

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Background: AEL originally owned 44% of AWL and has been selling this stake in parts throughout the year, including a 13% block deal earlier this week.

Who bought the shares? The block drew strong institutional demand from a mix of domestic mutual funds, including ICICI Prudential MF, SBI MF, Tata MF, Quant MF, and Bandhan MF, alongside global managers Vanguard and Charles Schwab. Investors from Singapore, the UAE, and other Asian markets also came in, Economic Times reports.

MENA link: AWL has also drawn interest from Gulf-based investors this year — including Dubai-based Shajaeatan Investment FZCO, which led to an INR 30.5 bn (USD 366 mn) stake purchase in the company in July — reflecting a growing interest in India’s food and staples sector, Economic Times reports.

Promoter shift: Following AEL’s exit, Singapore-based agribusiness conglomerate WilmarInternational becomes the sole promoter of AWL with an estimated 57% stake.

JSW set up acquire a logistics firm-

JSW Energy, Jindal Group's power arm, has secured creditor approval to acquire bankrupt rail corridor operator Raigarh Champa Rail Infrastructure (RCRIPL), according to an exchange filing. This acquisition is strategically important: RCRIPL is the exclusive rail provider for the KSK Mahanadi Power Company, a 3.6k MW thermal power plant in Chhattisgarh that JSW acquired earlier this year for INR 160.8 bn (USD 1.9 bn).

By acquiring RCRIPL, JSW Energy gains greater operational control over coal transport for its KMPCL power plant, one of India’s largest thermal assets. Owning RCRIPL cuts JSW’s reliance on freight providers and could shortening coal turnaround times.

What’s next: Completion of the transaction requires final clearance from India’s National Company Law Tribunal.

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EARNINGS WATCH

Adia-backed Groww recorded 12% net income growth in 2Q

India’s largest digital investment platform Groww — run by Adia-backed fintech firm Billionbrains Garage Ventures — posted a 12% y-o-y rise in consolidated net income to INR 4.7 bn (USD 56.4 mn) for the quarter ending September 2025, according to an earnings release. It’s the company’s first quarterly results since it went public earlier this month.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Revenue fell 9.4% y-o-y to INR 10.19 bn (USD 122 mn) from INR 11.25 bn (134.6 mn) in the same quarter last year. Net income rose on the back of lower expenses.

India’s largest stockbroker? Groww’s active-user base reached 14.8 mn — making it India's largest stockbroker, the company said in the note. The platform offers equity trading, mutual funds, and fixed-income products targeted at India’s retail investors.

CEO’s pitches for customer growth: In a message to shareholders, CEO and co-founder Lalit Keshre said the company remains focused on customer growth and product expansion, adding that retention is improving as users adopt more services across the platform.

Earnings surge for energy retailers-

Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs) look set to turn in strong results this fiscal year, with operating income projected to jump more than 50% (up to USD 20 per crude barrel) driven by robust marketing margins, according to a note from Crisil Ratings. Last fiscal year, the OMCs clocked USD 12 per barrel in operating income. The uptick is backed by stable retail fuel prices and what the agency says should be strong oil prices.

Stronger revenues will deliver better cashflows to help support what Crisil thinks will be some INR 900 bn (USD 10 bn) in capital expenditures, much of it focused on brownfield expansion and projects catering to domestic demand.

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MOVES

Bajaj Group taps Jitendra Gohil as CIO of its alternative investment arm

Bajaj Alternate Investment Management, part of India’s oldest conglomerate Birla Group, has appointed Jitendra Gohil (LinkedIn) as chief investment officer, Bloomberg reports. Gohil was previously chief investment strategist at Kotak Alternate Asset Managers, a Birla rival. He brings over two decades of experience in investment management and capital market transactions, including from a 14-year stint with Credit Suisse.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

India’s Finvasia Group to establish regional HQ in UAE under NextGen FDI program

Finvasia Group joins NextGen FDI, sets up UAE HQ: India-based engineering and tech conglomerate Finvasia Group joined the UAE’s NextGenFDI program, UAE state news agency Wam reports. As part of the move, ZuluTrade, its FX social trading firm, will set up its GCC headquarters in the UAE for five of its brands. Finvasia operates across sectors including fintech, blockchain, and healthcare. Its portfolio brands include blockchain and asset infrastructure firm Blockmaze, payments and digital asset company CapitalWallet, financial infrastructure player OneVault, and Jumpp — an AI-driven fintech app.

Other recent additions to NextGen FDI — launched in 2022 to attract global tech players to the UAE — include Chinese smart truck firm Trunk, Singapore-based engineering solutions player Quest Global, and global risk and supply chain intelligence company Exiger.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

INVESTMENT-

Carlyle is launching a dedicated India fund: US-based private equity firm Carlyle Group is setting up a new India-focused side fund to invest alongside its sixth pan-Asia vehicle, according to an International Finance Corporation (IFC) disclosure. The fund is looking to raise some USD 300 mn, with the IFC pledging an investment of up to USD 60 mn. The fund will target a broad range of sectors including financial services, advanced manufacturing, the consumer market, media, retail, technology, and healthcare.

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PLANET FINANCE

Is AI being built on dissolving tracks?

When it comes to AI, ignore the stock charts — the real story may be in the amortization schedules. Pundits who spent last week watching the red arrows on the Nasdaq (down 2.7% for the week) may have missed the real story: The sell-off was noise, when the signal is in the accounting.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What we’re seeing now is the real-time collision between two fundamental views of the AI economy: The “deployment phase” optimists who see a productivity boom, and “capex realists” (think: Michael Burry) who see (at best) a hole in the balance sheet that revenue cannot (yet?) fill.

The bulls see a deployment dividend on the horizon. The New York Times has recently argued that the “hype cycle” is coming to an end and the “deployment cycle” has begun. The argument: AI is no longer a parlor trick — it’s starting to show up in GDP and output-per-hour data. Bulls claim we’re at the start of a structural shift comparable to electrification or the internet — but happening at 2x the speed.

  • The evidence: The cost of adoption is stabilizing while the efficiency dividend widens, suggesting the path to profitability is clearer than the market thinks.

The bears see a capex treadmill — and maybe some hinky accounting. There’s a flaw in the Internet 2.0 analogy, and it’s in the physics of the infrastructure. When the Dotcom bubble burst, it left behind mns of km of “dark fiber” — assets with a >20-year useful life that powered the internet for decades at near-zero incremental cost.

The catch: Today’s AI boom is built on silicon, not glass — and GPUs have short lifespans. Unlike fiber, GPUs are depreciating assets with “frontier lifespans” of roughly 3-4 years before energy efficiency gains make them economically obsolete.

The accounting hijinks: Hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google have quietly extended their server depreciation schedules to 5-6 years to protect current earnings. If the hardware becomes obsolete in three years, those earnings are a mirage.

The “re-buy” problem: As Sequoia’s David Cahn noted last year, the industry isn’t just building a railroad — it’s building a railroad where the tracks dissolve every 48 months. To stay in the game, Big Tech must re-spend its capex budget in perpetuity.

Famed contrarian Michael Burry (of The Big Short fame) has reportedly placed a USD 1.1bn wager against Nvidia and Palantir, warning that the sector is sleepwalking into a crash. His argument mirrors the depreciation thesis: He accuses hyperscalers of inflating earnings by artificially extending the “useful life” of their servers — a “depreciation trick” that boosts profits on paper while the hardware rots in reality.

The bottom line: If the Times is right, the revenue arrives just in time to pay for the next generation of chips. If it’s wrong, we aren't looking at a bubble, but at the most expensive depreciation write-down in corporate history.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning, with both the Hang Seng and Kospi up 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite down 0.2%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei is closed in observance of Labor Thanksgiving Day.

ADX

9,795

-0.9% (YTD: +4.0%)

DFM

5,836

-1.3% (YTD: +13.1%)

Tadawul

11,011

0.0% (YTD: -8.5%)

EGX30

40,446

+0.4% (YTD: +36.0%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,255

- 1.0% (YTD: +19.5%)

QSE

10,653

+0.4% (YTD: +0.8%)

S&P 500

6,603

+1.0% (YTD: +12.3%)

FTSE 100

9,540

+0.1% (YTD: +16.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,515

-1.0% (YTD: +12.7%)

Brent crude

USD 62.27

-0.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.48

-2.1%

Gold

USD 4,096

-0.5%

BTC

USD 86,236

+1.5% (YTD: -7.7%)

THE OPENING BELL-

The S&P BSE Sensex opened in Green at 85,361, up 0.15%. The index is up 8.73% YTD.

Over on the NIFTY 50, the index also opened in Green at 26,113, up 0.17%. The index is up 9.9% YTD.

10

DIPLOMACY

India and Israel launch FTA talks to explore “mega opportunities”

India and Israel formally kicked off talks on a freetrade agreement (FTA) last week, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said in a post on X. The FTA could unlock cooperation in sectors including agri-tech, cybersecurity, defense, water desalination, fintech, and smart mobility, the minister said during an address to CEO Forum in Tel Aviv. Israel has agreed not to seek market access in sensitive Indian agricultural sectors such as dairy, wheat, rice, and sugar, which was a significant point for Indian farmers, the minister added.

INDIA + AUSTRALIA + CANADA-

India, Australia + Canada launch new tech alliance: India, Australia, and Canada launched the Australia-Canada-India Technology and Innovation partnership to boost cooperation on critical and emerging technologies, according to an External Affairs Ministry statement. The partnership will complement existing bilateral ties by focusing on green energy innovation, resilient supply chains for critical minerals, and the mass adoption of AI. The initiative also aims to align the three nations on net-zero goals while diversifying supply chains for a “secure, sustainable, and resilient future,” the ministry said.

INDIA + KUWAIT-

Indian and Kuwaiti officials discussed strengthening cooperation on anti-money laundering and terrorism financing during a meeting in New Delhi, Kuwait Times reports. India and Kuwait signed an MoU in July to enhance cooperation between their financial intelligence units, particularly to tackle anti-money laundering and terrorism-financing, the news outlet added.


NOVEMBER

26 November (Wednesday): GCC Annual Conclave 2025, Sheraton Whitefield, Bengaluru.

28 November (Friday): Launch of Lawh Wa Qalam: M.F. Husain Museum in Education City, Doha.

DECEMBER

3-7 December (Wednesday-Sunday): ENGIMACH Automation & Manufacturing Technology Expo, Helipad Exhibition Centre (Gandhinagar), Gujarat.

11 December (Thursday), FICCI Commercial Real Estate Conclave, Taj MG Road, Bengaluru.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India Visit (Details yet to be announced).

JANUARY

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

19-20 January (Monday-Tuesday): International Crop Science Conference and Exhibition 2026, Le Meridien Conference Centre, Dubai.

27-30 January (Tuesday-Friday): India Energy Week 2026, ONGC Advanced Training Institute, Goa.

30 January-1 February (Friday-Sunday):India Agri Expo 2026, Ludhiana Exhibition Centre, Punjab.

31 January (Saturday): Commencement of Budget Session 2026, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

FEBRUARY

1 February (Sunday): Union Budget 2026-27, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

3-6 February (Tuesday-Friday): ChemTECH World Expo 2026, JIO World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

19-20 February (Thursday-Friday): India - AI Impact Summit 2026, New Delhi.

19-20 February (Thursday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards 2026, Bengaluru.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft 2026: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): 11th Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PLASTIWORLD India 2026, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

  • Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.

APRIL

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon 2026, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo 2026, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo 2026, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star 2025, Dubai.

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