Good morning readers and welcome to the weekend. Big tech is making a wave of investment commitments in India, the latest being Amazon’s USD 35 bn pledge in AI and logistics. This follows Microsoft's USD 17.5 bn announcement, which we covered on Wednesday.
THE BIG STORY story this morning is about little known Gulf-based intermediaries facilitating purchases of Russian crude by Indian refiners.
MEANWHILE- Adia has snapped up a stake in ICICI Prudential Asset Management ahead of its listing, while Hyderabad-based Cyient acquired Abu Dhabi tech consulting firm. BlackRock is also taking a piece of Aditya Birla Renewables. Bengaluru-based Casagrand is tapping into Dubai’s luxury residences market.
ALSO- Telangana secured INR 5.75 tn in investment pledges, and the India-US trade agreement is further delayed.
** A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM MENA<>India will be taking a break from your inboxes on Monday next week in preparation for something special to reveal to you all — and we’re confident you’ll think it was worth the disruption. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Wednesday, 17 December.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Amazon will invest over USD 35 bn in India by 2030 to scale AI capabilities, expand logistics, and deepen its export base, amid a wave of big tech capital pledges to India, Reuters reports. This week, Microsoft committed USD 17.5 bn for cloud and AI infrastructure by 2030. Google has also pledged USD 15 bn in investments over the next five years. The investment wave signals that India is now a decisive battleground for US tech giants as well as more established local players.
Amazon’s India push: The e-commerce giant, which has already pumped USD 40 bn into India since 2010, is scaling aggressively in the e-retail industry as competition intensifies with Walmart-backed Flipkart and Reliance Retail.
MEANWHILE- Microsoft’s USD 17.5 bn investment, its largest in Asia, will expand data center capacity, build sovereign cloud capabilities, and train domestic talent. Both firms pitched AI as the next major inflection point for India, with Satya Nadella arguing that India’s scale, regulatory latitude, and linguistic diversity make it critical for training globally competitive AI systems, Bloomberg reports.
The strategic subtext: The big tech is accelerating capital deployment in India partly because China is effectively closed to them — leaving India, with over 1 bn internet users and a comparatively permissive regulatory regime, as the most consequential battleground market.
Amazon and Microsoft convened parallel high-level summits in New Delhi this week: Amazon showcased AI-enabled commerce and logistics innovations under its “Smbhav” platform, while Microsoft framed India as a cornerstone of its global AI infrastructure footprint.
Gulf also has eyes on India: For Gulf investors already expanding AI investments at home, apart from engineering talent, India also offers a vast consumer market and myriad avenues for investment as demand for data centers expands exponentially. Abu Dhabi-based G42 has already made an initial move with its commitment to build AI-ready data centers in the country.
#2- US trade agreement delayed again? India has pushed the timeline for concluding a long-pending trade agreement with the US to March 2026 following the recent talks with a visiting US trade delegation, Bloomberg reports, citing Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran.
Inconclusive talks: US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer and Brendan Lynch held talks in New Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday with Agrawal and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, which concluded without a breakthrough.
The first phase of the agreement — focused on tariff rates — had initially been slated for completion by the fall, but that deadline passed without a breakthrough. On 1 December, India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal had said a part of the agreement would be finalized by year-end.
Plot twist: A hoped-for November timeline “turned out to be elusive,” Nageswaran told Bloomberg, adding he would be “surprised” if the agreement is not signed by March as negotiations continue in Delhi.
Why it matters: The delay will push India to seek alternative destinations for its exports and expedite trade agreements with the GCC block and member states. India has already expanded its outreach in the UAE, among other countries, to replace US buyers for its labor-intensive manufacturing sector.
MEANWHILE- Prime Minister Narendra Modi dialed US President Donald Trump on Thursday to review the progress in bilateral relations and international development, according to a statement.
#3- The Commerce Ministry has proposed a new mandate for AI companies to pay content creators for using their data when training AI models, according to a report (pdf). The draft framework proposes that an industry body should collect these payments from AI firms and distribute to content creators at a rate set by the government or courts under a licensing mechanism. Industry stakeholders have 30 days to file their objections and feedback to the proposal.
Opt-out deemed unworkable: The panel rejected the opt-out model used in the European Union, saying creators cannot realistically track their material across massive training datasets. Instead, they would claim payments from the pooled royalties if their work is used.
Industry warns of innovation tax: Nasscom, an influential tech industry body whose members include Google and Microsoft, argued the royalty system amounts to a tax on innovation. The Motion Picture Association, representing Netflix and Paramount, said the panel India should avoid changing copyright law and focus on licensing instead.
#3- QIA-backed Swiggy’s INR 92 bn (USD 1.1 bn) qualified institutional placement has lined up bids from global marquee investors including Temasek Holdings’ Capital Group, Fidelity Investments, BlackRock Investments, and Nomura Holding, Bloomberg reports.
Bid details: India’s top asset managers — SBI Funds Management, ICICI Prudential Asset Management, and HDFC Asset Management — also bid for the offering. Most bids were around INR 375 (USD 4.2) a share, versus an indicative price of INR 371, which is 6.8% lower than Swiggy’s last close. Allotments are expected later this week.
What’s on offer? Swiggy offered about 269.5 mn shares in the transaction, which launched on Tuesday.
[wwtt4] #4- IndiGo could face an antitrust probe: India’s largest airline IndiGo may face an antitrust investigation after cancelling over 5k flights so far this month due to crew shortages linked to new pilot rest rules, Economic Times reports, quoting an anonymous government official. There is a “strong case” for the Competition Commission of India (CCI) to assess whether the airline has imposed unfair conditions on passengers through continued cancellations, the official told the newspaper.
Regulatory pressure builds: The CCI is conducting an informal review of the situation and will decide shortly on initiating a formal inquiry, while the Directorate General of Civil Aviation continues its broader investigation into the crisis.
IndiGo said operations have begun to stabilize after network adjustments, noting that it operated 1.9k daily flights with minimal cancellations since 8 December. However, Thursday saw over 75 cancellations across Bengaluru and Ahmedabad airports alone, Business Standard reports.
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DATA POINTS-
India recorded its highest-ever exports 1H of FY 2025-26, with outflows reaching USD 418.6 bn between April and September, up 5.8% from USD 395.7 bn a year earlier, IANS reports. 1Q and 2Q marked the highest quarterly export prints on record, combining merchandise and services.
HAPPENING TODAY- Emirates NBD will launch an open offer for Mumbai-listed RBL Bank’s public shares. The Dubai-based lender is acquiring a majority stake for USD 3bn in the RBL bank, making it India’s largest foreign investment in the banking sector.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
OpenAI has received investments from giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and SoftBank in recent years — its latest investor? Disney. The Walt Disney Company is investing USD 1 bn in the AI startup, in an agreement that will give the ChatGPT maker access to characters from Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars available on Sora, OpenAI’s video-generation tool. In return, Disney will also be granted warrants to purchase additional equity in the AI startup at a nominal price throughout the duration of the contract.
Disney earlier on Wednesday sent Google a cease and desist letter accusing it of infringing its copyrights, using its works to train models, and distributing protected content without authorization. (Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | Reuters | CNBC)
A selloff of Oracle’s shares yesterday following disappointing earnings and news that it will hike spending is also making the rounds. The company shed 10.8% of its value in trading yesterday, as investors — wary of the amount of funds Oracle will have to borrow to fund its push into AI, as well as concerns that OpenAI, which has major contracts with Oracle, won’t be able to hold up its end of the bargain.
The spread on Oracle’s credit default swaps, representing the cost to buy protection against Oracle’s bonds, hit a record high of 139 basis points, signaling more demand for protection as investors fear a potential default. (Financial Times | Bloomberg | Reuters)
OVER IN CRYPTO LAND- South Korean crypto entrepreneur and TerraUSD creator Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison after pleading guilty to charges of fraud, in a case that accused him of misleading investors about the stability of his crypto coin in times of volatility. TerraUSD and Luna coin, another cryptocurrency he created, both lost USD 40 bn in 2022. (Reuters | WSJ | FT)
MARKET WATCH-
India ranks second on risk-adjusted FDI returns: India delivered the second-highest risk-adjusted returns between 2014-23 on foreign direct investment (FDI) among major economies, behind Indonesia, according to a CareEdge study. India generated an average return of 7.3% on inward FDI during this period.
UAE is a major investor in India, with cumulative FDI of approximately USD 22.84 bn from 2000 to 2025, making it the seventh-largest source of FDI for India.
