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AI to drive up power demand in India

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Oyo clears shareholder hurdle for IPO as RBI conducts FX swaps to stabilize INR forwards

Good afternoon, wonderful people, and a very happy Christmas Eve! The news slowdown has definitely arrived this afternoon, as many Indians are looking forward to a long-ish weekend, kicking off with the Christmas holiday tomorrow.

India’s AI and data center surge is projected to take up 20% of the nation’s power demand over the next few years, with a peak projected at 817 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030. This electrifying demand surge is, predictably, opening up new avenues for investment for Gulf SWFs, who are already quite fond of backing India’s leading energy firms.

In October, FDI outflows from India actually outpaced inflows, according to the central bank’s latest data release. Amid record selling by foreign investors in Indian equities this year, this unexpected FDI outflow was an extra hit for the INR, currently the worst-performing currency in Asia.

AND- We have a year-end roundup of India’s record-breaking IPO season, where 103 companies managed to collectively rake in some INR 1.76 tn in 2025. Time to dive into all those newly minted banknotes.

** A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM MENA<>India will be off on Friday. We’ll be back in your inboxes at the usual hour on Monday with everything you may have missed over the long weekend.

Watch this space

IPO India’s hospitality unicorn Oyo Rooms is planning to raise up to INR 66.5 bn (USD 742 mn) through an IPO after its parent company Prism secures shareholders for the listing, PTI reports. Oyo counts Japan’s SoftBank as a major investor — it raised USD 2 bn from Soft Bank’s Vision Fund, which is reportedly backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to Arab Business.

Gulf footprint: Oyo is rapidly expanding in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It launched the Sunday Hotels brand in Dubai in February with plans to add up to 15 more Sunday-branded properties in the city, Hospitality Net reports. It launched its Saudi Arabia operations in 2019 with 3k rooms across seven cities, according to News Minute.


AVIATION — IndiGo, India’s largest air carrier, has reportedly entered into wet-lease agreements for seven aircraft — two from Qatar Airways and five Airbus A320s from Turkey-based Freebird Airlines — to support domestic operations, The Hindu Businessline reports, citing industry sources. The aircraft are expected to be inducted between December 2025 and January 2026.

Zoom out: The Indian government recently directed IndiGo to cut its domestic winter schedule by 10%, following the cancellation of over 4k flights in early December after the airline failed to adequately manage new pilot rest regulations. Beyond pilot availability constraints, IndiGo has grounded several aircraft due to ongoing Pratt & Whitney engine issues, as well as delays in aircraft deliveries from manufacturers.

Separately, India’s aviation regulator has increased scrutiny of IndiGo’s Turkey-linked wet-lease arrangements after Ankara allegedly backed Pakistan during the May India-Pakistan clash, according to The Hindu. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation has said IndiGo can operate five wet-leased Boeing 737s from Turkey until 31 March 2026, with a “sunset clause” barring any further extension.


FX — India’s central bank moved to stabilize the INR on Tuesday, conducting foreign-exchange swaps after USD-INR onshore forward yields had surged to multi-year highs, Bloomberg reports.

The Reserve Bank (RBI) of India reportedly carried out buy-sell FX swaps across maturities of up to one year, including short-tenor transactions, the newswire added. In such transactions, the RBI buys USD from lenders and commits to selling them back at a later date, helping ease liquidity pressures in the forward market.

Why it matters: For Gulf banks, sovereign investors, and corporates with INR exposure, forward-market stability is critical to managing hedging costs and returns on Indian assets. The elevated hedging costs had begun to erode foreign investor returns, contributing to outflows from Indian bonds and equities this month. The RBI’s move signals a willingness to intervene in funding markets to limit spillovers from currency defence — an important consideration for investors allocating capital to India.

MEANWHILE- India’s benchmark Nifty 50 has surged 10.47% in INR terms in 2025 so far, but currency depreciation has eroded returns for foreign investors. In USD terms, returns stand at 5.44%, the lowest among major global equity benchmark indices, The Hindu Businessline reports. This erosion is driven by the INR’s depreciation of over 5.5% against the USD, which has reduced returns for foreign investors. Foreign portfolio investors have pulled out more than INR 1.55 tn (c. USD 17.2 bn) from Indian equities as of late December.

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Data point

USD 10.4 bn — institutional investments in India’s real estate sector in 2025, up 17% from USD 8.88 bn a year earlier, The Hindu Businessline reports. Domestic institutions accounted for 52% of total inflows, while offshore investors contributed the remaining 48%.

The big story abroad

Gold surged past the USD 4,500 an ounce this afternoon—hitting an all-time high of USD 4,525. Silver also hit a record peak of USD 72.70.

The US economy grew at a brisk 4.3% clip in the third quarter of the year, backed by consumer spending on healthcare and computing. That’s well ahead of the 3.2% pace at which analysts polled by Bloomberg expected the economy to expand. Investment by businesses slowed and exports fell in the same period.

Oil-price watchers, take note: The US has moved special operations forces into the Caribbean, ratcheting up pressure on Venezuela’s government. Washington is already enforcing a blockade of oil tankers moving into and out of the Latin American country.

2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

AI, data centers to drive 20% of India’s new power demand by 2030

Artificial intelligence-related workloads, including data centers, could account for about 20% of India’s incremental electricity demand by 2030 as digital services and compute usage scale up, according to an India Capital Management report (pdf).

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

India’s power demand is estimated to hit 817 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, compared to an earlier forecast of 661 TWh, with around 156 TWh of the increase attributed to AI-related demand. The updated projection places India’s incremental electricity demand 32% higher than the US and nearly three times that of the European Union over the same period.

Why it matters

For MENA investors, India’s accelerating AI-led power demand marks the emergence of a large, policy-backed infrastructure investment cycle rather than a narrow technology shift. India’s data center capacity is projected to expand nearly fivefold to about 8.12 GW by 2030, outpacing the roughly threefold growth expected in the US. Meeting this demand requires USD 450-500 bn financing through 2030, according to the report.

Gulf-based sovereign wealth funds and investors — including Adia, ADQ, PIF, QIA, and Mubadala — have poured bns into India’s major energy producers, according to an Arab Gulf States Institute report.

What’s next

Global technology firms are expanding capacity in India to support AI and cloud workloads, with Google, Amazon, and Microsoft committing a total of USD 67.5 bn over the next five years.

3

TRADE

India Sees high FDI outflow of USD 1.55 bn in October

India recorded a net foreign direct investment (FDI) outflow for the second consecutive month in October, as foreign investor repatriations and overseas investments by Indian companies together exceeded USD 8 bn, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data (pdf).

Corridor angle: The UAE, Singapore, and the US accounted for more than half of India’s outward FDI in October, with around 90% of outbound investments concentrated in financial, ins., and business services.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Gross FDI inflows during the month stood at USD 6.54 bn but were outweighed by outflows, resulting in a net FDI outflow of USD 1.55 bn. This follows a USD 1.66 bn net outflow in September.

Outbound momentum: Over the first seven months of FY 2025-2026 (ending in March), combined foreign investor repatriations and overseas investments by Indian companies totalled USD 52.13 bn, up from USD 47.26 bn in the same period a year earlier. Despite intermittent monthly outflows toward the latter part of the year, India recorded net FDI inflows of USD 6.2 bn in 7M of FY 2026.

Why it matters

These outflows are driven by higher interest rates and localization trends in developed countries, V. Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic advisor to the Modi government, told Indian Express. Indian entities are increasingly investing overseas to maintain a physical presence, “because in order to sell into those markets, you have to be present there these days rather than being able to export there,” he told the daily. These outflows are also adding pressure to the plummeting INR.

4

IPO WATCH

India’s IPO market closes 2025 at record high as Gulf capital stays engaged

India’s IPO market is heading into the new year with strong momentum after companies raised a record INR 1.76 tn (USD 19.6 bn) through 103 mainboard listings in 2025, Business Standard reports. This compares with INR 1.6 tn (USD 19.3 bn) raised in 2024 and INR 494 bn (USD 6 bn) in 2023.

Among Gulf-based investors, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) was the most active. The SWF anchored 17 issues with a total allocation of USD 10.4 bn, as per data compiled by Chittorgarh. Adia’s allocations remained heavily focused on the financial services, tech, and renewable energy sectors in 2025.

Among the largest listings this year:

  • Tata Capital raised INR 155 bn (USD 1.9 bn);
  • HDB Financial Services: INR 125 bn (USD 1.5 bn);
  • LG Electronics India: INR 116 bn (USD 1.4 bn);
  • Hexaware Technologies: INR 87.5 bn (USD 1.1 bn);
  • Lenskart Solutions: INR 72.8 bn (USD 870 mn);
  • Billionbrains Garage Ventures: INR 66.3 bn (USD 800 mn).

Secondary sales dominated issuances, with around 60% of total proceeds raised through offer-for-sale (OFS) transactions. Fifteen listings were purely OFS, together mobilizing over INR 450 bn, while 23 companies raised funds through fresh equity alone. The remainder were mixed offerings, with OFS forming the larger component.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Startups had a good year too. Eighteen startups went public in 2025, together raising over INR 410 bn (USD 5 bn), versus INR 290 bn in 2024.

Market backdrop: IPO activity remained muted in the first seven months of 2025 before picking up in August as equity markets stabilized. Of the 103 IPOs, 70 delivered listing-day gains, while 32 listed at a markdown.

Why this matters: For investors, the IPO rebound reinforces India’s growing relevance as a primary and fast-growing market destination. Adia’s strong participation reflects continued GCC institutional interest in Indian equities across financial services, consumer internet, and manufacturing-linked sectors, alongside longer-term capital deployment.

What’s next for 2026

The pipeline for next year is already bustling. At least 75 companies have secured approval from India’s market regulator, with around 100 additional filings under review. Bankers expect offerings from major companies like Reliance Jio, SBI Mutual Fund, PhonePe, and Oyo, according to the daily.

5

KUDOS

India breaks heavy-lift record as it chases USD 44 bn space economy

Heavy lift launch: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has deployed the 6.1-tonne BlueBird’s communications satellite into low Earth orbit (LEO) aboard its LVM3-M6 rocket, according to an ISRO statement.

ISRO said the satellite is the heaviest commercial payload launched by LVM3 from Indian soil. The mission was a commercial launch under a contract between state-run NewSpace India and US-based AST SpaceMobile.

Why it matters: This launch comes as India looks to scale its space economy from USD 8 bn to USD 44 bn in the coming years. India is positioning itself as a credible heavy-lift alternative to Western providers, reinforcing its role in the global commercial space economy.

6

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Tata Group’s Taj Hotels enters Egypt Continental Hotel in Cairo

The Continental Hotel is getting Taj branding

Indian luxury hotel brand Taj Hotels will refurbish and manage the historic Continental Hotel in downtown Cairo, according to a statement. The project, which will see Tata Group cooperate with state-owned Egyptian General Company for Tourism and Hotels, kicked off in 2Q 2025. The agreement marks Taj Hotels’ entry into the Egyptian market.

Background: We first heard in 2023 that Egypt’s government was planning a tender for a private partner to refurbish the Continental Hotel, a project that had stalled until this year. The project is part of the government’s push to repurpose historic buildings in Downtown Cairo into commercial spaces and hotels.

Tata Electronics partners with Rohm to manufacture semiconductors

TataElectronics is partnering with Japan’s Rohm to manufacture semiconductors in India, The Hindu Businessline reports. The collaboration will initially focus on power semiconductors, with Tata Group set to assemble and test Rohm’s India-designed, automotive-grade semiconductors at its upcoming assembly and test facilities. Mass production is slated to begin by next year.

The partners will also explore co-developing high-value packaging technologies and jointly market products manufactured in India for domestic and export markets.

Larsen & Toubro secures a major order for BPCL

Mumbai-based Larsen & Toubro has secured a “major” order from Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), valued at up to INR 100 bn, according to a company exchange filing. L&T is a major engineering and construction player in the Middle East, executing major projects including in Saudi Arabia’s Neom city. The contract covers engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning of polyethylene units at BPCL’s refinery in Madhya Pradesh.

  • Steel and mining giant ArcelorMittal is investing USD 900 mn to develop three new solar and wind projects in India with a combined capacity of 1 GW. This move will double the company’s renewable energy capacity in India to 2 GW and push its global green power footprint to 3.3 GW, according to a press release.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Investors shift to Chinese AI as bubble fears mount on Wall Street

Spooked by bubble risks in US AI, investors are redirecting capital east. Global funds are piling into Chinese AI and tech stocks as concerns grow over stretched valuations and the “circular” financing dynamics underpinning Wall Street’s AI boom, Reuters reports.

**Missed our primer on why investors are spooked about the self-inforcing loop of AI spending in the US — where Big Tech funds AI startups that then pay the same firms for cloud and compute? You can find it here.

China is emerging as the alternative wager: Foreign investors are leaning into Beijing’s push for AI self-reliance, backed by state funding, faster approvals, and domestic supply chains. Capital is flowing into Chinese chipmakers, cloud firms, and platform companies tied to local AI deployment, the newswire said.

Flows are already shifting: Asset managers including Ruffer told Reuters they have capped exposure to the US “Magnificent Seven” while adding Chinese tech. Chinese AI chipmaker MetaX Integrated Circuits, founded by former AMD executives, soared 700% in its Shanghai market debut last week, while larger rival Moore Threads rose 400% on its debut earlier this month.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Valuations add fuel to the rotation: The Nasdaq trades at roughly 31x earnings, compared with about 24x for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index, offering cheaper AI exposure via names such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and SMIC, the newswire noted.

Structural benefits favoring China also form part of the appeal: “Big Short” investor Michael Burry warned the US risks losing the AI race if it continues to rely on Nvidia’s power-hungry chips, arguing China’s far larger and faster-growing electricity generation gives it a structural edge, Business Insider reports. In his view, the AI arms race is being fought on power infrastructure as much as silicon.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets made marginal gains in early trading this morning, ahead of an early close in light of Christmas Eve. Meanwhile, Wall Street is having a jolly time this holiday season, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high yesterday, though futures are hovering near the flatline.

Sensex

85,384

-0.16%% (YTD: +8.76%)

NIFTY 50

26,137

-0.15% (YTD: +10%)

ADX

10,047

-0.1% (YTD: +6.6%)

DFM

6,168

+0.1 (YTD: +19.4%)

Tadawul

10,550

-0.43% (YTD: -12.3%)

EGX30

41,545

+0.3% (YTD: +39.7%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,277

+0.2% (YTD: +20.1%)

QSE

10,839

+0.14% (YTD: +2.4%)

S&P 500

6,909

+0.5% (YTD: +17.5%)

FTSE 100

9,871

-0.2% (YTD: +21.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,750

+0.03% (YTD: +17.4%)

Brent crude

USD 62.4

+0.08%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.44

+0.6%

Gold

USD 4,518

+0.23%

BTC

USD 86,806

-0.78%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:00 pm IST/1:30 pm GST.


DECEMBER

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): India assumes the Presidency of Brics.

19-20 January (Monday-Tuesday): International Crop Science Conference and Exhibition, Le Méridien Conference Center, Dubai.

26 January (Monday): Republic Day (Public Holiday).

27 January (Tuesday): India-EU Summit (to potentially finalize FTA), New Delhi.

27-30 January (Tuesday-Friday): India Energy Week, ONGC Advanced Training Institute, Goa.

30 January-1 February (Friday-Sunday): India Agri Expo, Ludhiana Exhibition Center, Punjab.

31 January (Saturday): Commencement of Budget Session 2026, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

FEBRUARY

1 February (Sunday): Union Budget 2026-27, Parliament of India, New Delhi.

3-6 February (Tuesday-Friday): ChemTech World Expo, Jio World Convention Center, Mumbai.

9-10 February (Monday-Tuesday): Pune International Business Summit (PIBS), SL Kirloskar Convention Center, JW Marriott, Pune.

14-18 February (Saturday-Wednesday): IHGF Delhi Fair (Spring), New Delhi.

19-20 February (Thursday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

4 March (Wednesday): Holi (Public Holiday).

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards, Bengaluru.

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan – Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Al Fitr (Public Holiday).

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): PlastiWorld India, Jio World Convention Center, Mumbai.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti (Public Holiday).

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

  • Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory Puducherry.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday (Public Holiday).

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima (Public Holiday).

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Al Adha (Public Holiday).

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram (Public Holiday).

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day (Public Holiday).

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday (Public Holiday).

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Public Holiday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra (Public Holiday).

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti (Public Holiday).

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day (Public Holiday).

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