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AI Summit kicks off in New Delhi

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Reliance secured US license for Venezuelan crude; Saudi’s Eram signs defense pact with BEL

Good afternoon, readers. Today’s issue is dominated by AI headlines as the India AI Impact Summit kicks off in New Delhi. Global tech leaders, heads of state, policymakers, and investors are convening to discuss the future of AI as India pitches itself as an investment hub. A Blackstone-led consortium is investing USD 1.2 bn in AI cloud startup Neysa.

ALSO- Reliance has secured a US license to directly buy Venezuelan oil. Across the pond, Saudi Arabia’s Eram Holdings has joined hands with an India defense firm. Let’s dive in.

Watch this space

OIL WATCH — Reliance Industries, India’s largest refiner, will directly purchase Venezuelan crude after securing a general license from the US Treasury Department, Bloomberg reports. Reliance was the largest buyer of Russian crude and has increased MENA supplies in recent months.

A supply cushion: The approval comes as India recalibrates its oil sourcing following a trade agreement with the US on the condition that New Delhi halts imports of marked-down Russian crude. The government has asked refiners to consider buying more oil from Venezuela and the US in the spot markets.

Why it matters: While Venezuelan output remains constrained, access provides a strategic fallback for Reliance, one of the few Indian refiners capable of processing heavy and sour crude. The company previously sourced up to 400k bbl / d from Venezuela before US sanctions halted flows in 2019. Given that Venezuela has limited supplies to offer, the volumes are unlikely to replace MENA supplies, which command a significant share of India’s crude mix.


DEFENSE Saudi Arabia’s Eram Holdings has signed a strategic agreement with India’s state-run defense electronics manufacturer Bharat Electronics (BEL) to cooperate on defense and aerospace technologies in Saudi Arabia, Zawya reports.

Scope of the agreement: The MoU covers joint manufacturing, technology transfer, research and development, and contract manufacturing across land, naval, and airborne systems. Eram Power Electronics Company will support the localization and system integration of BEL’s equipment in the Kingdom.

Context: BEL is a public-sector undertaking under India’s Defense Ministry and supplies electronic systems to the Indian armed forces. The agreement aligns with Saudi Arabia’s plan to localize 50% of its military spending.


INVESTMENT WATCH — US-based investment firm KKR could deploy USD 20 bn in India over the next decade, The Economic Times reports, citing company co-founder Henry Kravis. The firm has invested more than USD 13 bn in India over the past two decades, including about USD 9 bn in the last five years.

Why it matters: KKR’s long-term commitment to India highlights the growing investment window for Gulf capital allocators, including co-investment windows. KKR manages USD 744 bn in global assets and invests in India across private equity, infrastructure, and private credit.

The pattern: Last year, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) joined hands with US private equity firm Warburg Pincus, investing up to USD 877 mn in IDFC FIRST Bank. Warburg Pincus is also partnering with Mubadala to acquire a majority stake in Mumbai-based Encube Ethicals for USD 1.8 bn. BlackRock has also expressed interest in investing in India alongside Gulf sovereigns.

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Data point

INR 1 tn (USD 11.04 bn) That is the amount of customs duty India may forgo in FY 2027 (ending in March) due to preferential tariffs under freetrade agreements signed to date, Business Standard reports. Revenue forgone stood at INR 985.7 bn (USD 10.7 bn) in FY 2026, well above estimates.

Context: The revenue impact is forecasted to be highest for tariffs collected from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at USD 4.46 bn in FY 2027, with whom India already runs a massive trade deficit. This is followed by Japan (USD 1.24 bn), South Korea (USD 1.19 bn), and the UAE (USD 1.01 bn).

The big story abroad

The Netflix-Paramount-Warner Bros dance is back in the news after Bloomberg broke the news that Warner Bros Discovery is mulling a renewed hostile bid from Paramount Skydance which could potentially nix a prior agreement with Netflix. Paramount has vowed to pay the termination fee — at USD 2.8 bn — owed to Netflix if the streaming giant’s bid is turned down, as well as backstop Warner Bros’ debt refinancing. Netflix’s bid of USD 27.75 per share for Warner Bros’ namesake studio and HBO Max streaming business was accepted late last year.

ALSO WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING- The automotive industry is reeling from a USD 65 bnhit following a sweeping reversal of US climate policy. The downturn has disproportionately affected the companies that wagered the most on EVs, with global automotive player Stellantis being hit the hardest after suffering a USD 26 bn write down.

AND- The CHF has appreciated recently — driven by geopolitical turmoil and the greenback’s recent dip — against the EUR and USD and is undermining the competitiveness of Swiss exporters. The haven currency has already recorded a 3% rise in 2026 and has especially pressured small and medium-sized companies, trade associations have said. Switzerland’s exported goods and services make up more than 70% of its GDP.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

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THE BIG STORY TODAY

India AI Summit kicks off today, UAE + Saudi delegations in attendance

The India AI Impact Summit, one of the world’s largest AI gatherings, kicked off today in New Delhi, in a major convergence point for the India-MENA corridor.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed Indias pride in welcoming global leaders to the summit. “The AI Impact Summit will enrich the global discourse on diverse aspects of AI, such as innovation, collaboration, and responsible use, among others,” Modi said in a post on X.

Why it matters: India seeks to position itself as a serious contender in the global race to build frontier AI models. By opening its nuclear energy sector to power AI data centers along with a massive renewables buildout, India is offering Gulf investors a green, low-cost alternative for hosting regional data. With USD 70 bn in AI commitments already secured from the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, India is targeting USD 150 bn in AI infrastructure investment by late 2026.

The summit will draw heads of state, global executives, investors, and policymakers. CEOs of tech giants — including OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, and Meta’s Alexandr Wang — are attending the conference.

A high-level delegation from the UAE, led by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, will be in attendance, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The focus is on cross-border supercomputing clusters and jointly-developed data centers that can power AI solutions across energy, finance, and smart infrastructure, while formalizing the AI infrastructure MoUs signed during President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed’s recent visit to India.

From Saudi Arabia, President of the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority Abdullah Alghamdiwill present the Kingdom’s advanced technological initiatives in humanitarian and economic AI development.

IN CONTEXT- In the latest Budget, India introduced a tax holiday until 2047 for foreign cloud and AI infrastructure providers to undercut the operational costs of rival tech hubs.

What’s on the agenda: The summit will debut 12 foundation models developed in India. Discussions will cover global frameworks for AI governance, future strategic priorities for the technology, and mechanisms to strengthen public-private cooperation in support of the sustainable development goals.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

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POLICY WATCH

Modi government clears Startup India Fund 2.0 with INR 100 bn corpus

The Indian government has cleared a corpus of INR 100 bn (USD 1.1 bn) under a fund of funds to mobilize venture capital for India’s startup ecosystem, according to the Press Information Bureau. This is the second iteration of the Startup India initiative, which catalyzed investments from Gulf SWFs, including QIA, Adia, and PIF.

A successful predecessor: The earlier fund of funds launched in 2016 invested over INR 255 bn (USD 2.81 bn) in more than 1.3k startups through 145 alternative investment funds.

Startup India 2.0 will take a more targeted approach, focusing on deep tech, tech-led manufacturing, and early-growth startups, while expanding funding beyond major metros into smaller cities. The fund is designed to address the high-risk capital gap and strengthen smaller domestic venture funds.

Why this matters: State-backed capital provides a safety net for high-risk, long-gestation sectors. As the UAE and Saudi Arabia push to become global hubs for AI and advanced manufacturing, this creates a pipeline of de-risked joint investment windows in hardware and AI for MENA investors.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

4

INVESTMENT WATCH

Blackstone leads USD 1.2 bn wager on India AI cloud startup Neysa

Mumbai-based AI cloud company Neysa has secured USD 1.2 bn in investments from a consortium of investors led by US-based private equity firm Blackstone, according to a statement. This signals that Indian AI firms are increasingly attracting global capital, rivaling their competitors in the Gulf region.

The investor group has allocated USD 600 mn in equity capital which will open the door to raising an additional USD 600 mn in debt. The transaction values Neysa at an enterprise valuation of USD 1.4 bn, The Economic Times reports.

Neysa? The company offers GPU-led cloud infrastructure and AI computing services to enterprises, startups, and government clients. It plans to deploy over 20k GPUs using the proceeds from the transaction, marking a significant expansion in India’s current 60k GPUs installed.

Investor lineup: Other investors in the round include TVS Capital and 360 One Asset Management. Existing stakeholders — Nexus Venture Partners, Z47, Blume Ventures, and Japan’s NTT — also increased their allocation. Blackstone’s global data center holdings are valued at USD 130 bn, according to the news outlet.

Regional backdrop: Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have articulated national AI strategies and are investing in computation and data-centric infrastructure to position themselves as regional AI hubs. India is mainly relying on domestic and foreign private investments for its AI buildout with policy initiatives aimed at facilitating these investments.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

5

IPO WATCH

Fractal Analytics falls 5% in trading debut

Mumbai-based AI and data analytics firm Fractal Analytics fell about 5% in its trading debut on Monday, marking a soft start for India’s first AI listing. The stock was trading at INR 861, below its IPO issue price of INR 900 per share. At the traded price, the firm was valued at INR 148.1 bn (USD 1.6 bn), Reuters reports.

Market reaction: The listing comes amid a broader selloff in software and data analytics firms, driven by investor concerns that AI tools could disrupt traditional business models. Last week, the company’s INR 28.34 bn (USD 314 mn) IPO was fully subscribed on the final day of bidding.

Anchor allocation: Ahead of the IPO, the company raised INR 12.48 bn from anchor investors by allotting about 13.87 mn shares at the upper end of the price band.

Why it matters: Gulf sovereign and institutional investors did not participate in the IPO’s anchor round, echoing a tepid investor response toward Indian AI firms.

Issue structure: About INR 3.5 bn, or roughly 35% of the fresh issue, will be used for AI-led revenue initiatives, research and development, and internal technology investments, with the remainder earmarked for loan repayment and basic capital expenditure.

Bookrunners: The IPO was managed by Kotak Mahindra Capital Company, Morgan Stanley India Company, Axis Capital, and Goldman Sachs (India) Securities.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

6

PLANET FINANCE

The greenback is breaking up with economic reality

It appears that the greenback has decoupled from economic fundamentals, morphing from a currency driven by growth and interest rates into one reacting to the volatility of the Trump administration, the Financial Times ’ Katie Martin argues in an opinion piece. A strange new economic reality for the world’s reserve currency is starting to appear, as while US growth forecasts climbed and bond yields remained elevated this year — all data points that should under normal circumstances point to a stronger USD — the greenback is down nearly 2% YTD against a basket of its peers.

Why it matters: For the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC, this is a direct threat to the stability of the USD peg. Because of their currencies being tethered to the greenback, they are effectively importing US political risk into the heart of their finances. As global asset managers now shift to maintain US stock holdings, while selling the USD, the Gulf could see its local purchasing power and fiscal reserves eroded by political drama all the way in Washington that has nothing to do with the economic health of the region.

Recently released US job data added to suspicions that macroeconomic reality and the currency are disconnected in a way never seen before. Despite expectations of a soaring USD following January job creation numbers that were double what they expected, the greenback remained flat. Summarizing this broader disconnect, Brookings Institution Senior Fellow proclaimed on his Substack that “We’re entering a new era. US growth will boom this year. But the USD will fall.”

But a weak USD is seen as a good thing by some in the White House, potentially including Trump himself, who described the USD reaching its lowest point in four years last month as “doing great” in comments to reporters. Some in the Trump administration, including Trade Policy Advisor Robert Lighthizer and to a lesser extent Vice President JD Vance, argue that a strong greenback has long dampened local manufacturing and export potential in the states.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets started off the week in the red, reacting to the Japanese economy missing growth expectations during 4Q 2025. The economy grew 0.1% during the three-month period, well below expectations of 0.4%, marking a reversal from the contraction recorded during the previous quarter.

Sensex

83,191

+0.6% (YTD: -2.3%)

NIFTY 50

25,679

+0.8% (YTD: -1.8%)

ADX

10,622

-0.1% (YTD: +6.2%)

DFM

6,719

-0.1% (YTD: 11.3%)

Tadawul

11,170

-0.5% (YTD: +7%)

EGX30

52,151

-0.3% (YTD: +24.6%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,071

+0.17% (YTD: -2.9%)

QSE

11,440

-0.2% (YTD: +6.5%)

S&P 500

6,836

+0.05% (YTD: -0.1%)

FTSE 100

10,477

+0.2% (YTD: +5.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,011

+0.4% (YTD: +3.3%)

Brent crude

USD 67.61

-0.2%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.99

-7.7%

Gold

USD 5,014

-0.5%

BTC

USD 68,948

-2.1%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.


14-18 February (Saturday-Wednesday): IHGF Delhi Fair (Spring), New Delhi.

16-20 February (Monday-Friday): India-AI Impact Summit, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

17-19 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Mumbai Climate Week, Mumbai.

17-19 February (Tuesday-Thursday): French President Emmanuel Macron to visit India.

18-22 February (Wednesday-Sunday): Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to visit India.

25 February (Wednesday): World Sustainable Development Summit, Taj Palace, New Delhi.

MARCH

4 March (Wednesday): Holi.

12 March (Thursday): ET Entrepreneur Summit & Awards, Bengaluru.

19-22 March (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Urja Manthan – Global Energy Conclave, New Delhi.

20 March (Friday): Eid Ul-Fitr.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Indiasoft: International IT Exhibition & Conference, New Delhi

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Smart Cities Expo, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

23-25 March (Monday-Wednesday): Plastiworld India, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

31 March (Tuesday): Mahavir Jayanti.

Signposted to happen sometime in March 2026

  • Election Commission of India is expected to announce polling dates for elections in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and the union territory, Puducherry.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to India.

APRIL

3 April (Friday): Good Friday.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

29 April-2 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

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