A two-week ceasefire

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

RBI keeps rates unchanged; Sebi extends IPO deadlines

Good afternoon, friends. The shift in mood is stark this morning after the overnight announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The eleventh-hour agreement paves the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, snapping a grueling six-week losing streak for Indian benchmark indices.

But the economic fallout is still being tallied: Even with the ink drying on the truce, New Delhi is taking no chances. The government is reportedly weighing a USD 2.1 bn credit support plan for businesses whose cashflows have been battered by the recent disruptions.

The uncertainty is also looming in the education sector: Indian students are reconsidering the UAE’s image as a safe, low-cost study destination. Deferrals are rising as families price in the risk, taming the robust India-Gulf education corridor.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its benchmark repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 5.25% in its latest review, with the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voting to hold rates and retain a neutral stance as it assesses the impact of the Iran war on the economic outlook, Reuters reports. The RBI expects GDP growth to moderate to 6.9% in FY 2027, compared with an estimated 7.6% in FY 2026. Inflation is projected at 4.6%, remaining within the central bank’s 2-6% target range.

Policy stance: The rate-setting panel is holding its position as it awaits clearer signals on how external shocks — particularly from energy prices and supply constraints — will feed into the domestic economy. The RBI also signaled it will remain proactive on liquidity management, using tools such as open market operations and repo auctions.

Why it matters: Sustained increases in oil prices and disruptions to key inputs could begin to weigh on demand over time, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said. He flagged risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions to supplies and domestic production, particularly as high crude oil prices will feed inflation.

Services growth slowed in March: India’s services sector growth slowed to a 14-month low in March as the Middle East conflict weighed on demand, according to the HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (pdf) compiled by S&P Global.

MEANWHILE- BMI, Fitch Group’s research arm, trimmed India’s FY 2027 growth outlook to 7% from an earlier 7.7% as spillovers from the war mount. Fitch’s outlook comes as other agencies, including EY, downgraded India’s growth forecast, warning that a prolonged conflict could shave 1 percentage point off the country’s GDP growth and lift inflation by 1.5 pp.

IPO WATCH — The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is giving companies planning to go public a one-time extension on the back of market volatility stirred by the war, according to a notification from the Indian market regulator.

What changed? Sebi approvals expiring between 1 April and 30 September will now remain valid until 30 September. The regulator has also relaxed norms on minimum 25% public shareholding, adding that no penal action will be taken for non-compliance during the period. Existing penalties, such as fines or freezing promoter holdings, may also be withdrawn.

Why it matters: India typically requires companies to list within 12-18 months of Sebi approval. The move follows multiple IPO deferrals amid market volatility, allowing issuers to access better time listings.

Market mood: Despite volatility, IPO filing activity remains strong. March saw 38 firms including SBI Funds Management and Mubadala-backed Manipal Health file their draft prospectus. However, recent listings saw muted debuts, reflecting cautious investor appetite.

Big-ticket listings ahead, including the National Stock Exchange and Jio Platforms, are expected to hit markets, alongside electric mobility firm BatterySmart and lending platform Fibe, keeping the pipeline active despite near-term uncertainty.

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Data point

INR 20.8 tn (USD 250 bn) — that’s the projected size of India’s e-commerce market by 2030, up from around INR 7.5 tn (USD 90 bn) currently, according to a report (pdf) by Google and Deloitte.

Growth drivers: Future growth is expected to be driven by shifts in how users discover and transact online, including increased use of AI tools, content-led shopping, and faster delivery formats. These trends are estimated to contribute around INR 9.3 tn (USD 100 bn) to the market expansion. Some 220 mn Gen Z shoppers are projected to account for about 45% of online consumption, shaping platform design and product discovery.

Quick commerce: Rapid delivery platforms — already expanding beyond grocery into beauty, fashion, and electronics — are projected to scale into an INR 4.2 tn (USD 50 bn) segment with around 70 mn users.

Happening this week

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will visit the UAE on Saturday where he is scheduled to meet senior leadership to review bilateral cooperation under the India-UAE comprehensive strategic partnership, according to a press release.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

Eleventh-hour ceasefire paves the way for Hormuz reopening

Iran and the US reached an agreement overnight to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, just hours before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else a “whole civilization will die.”

The agreement: Washington will “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said. Tehran responded by saying it would halt its attacks across the Gulf if the US and Israel stop their attacks. The Islamic Republic also said it would open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to transit the waterway in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

The ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after the agreement was announced. That statement comes as Israel expands its evacuation orders in Lebanon, issuing directives for about 40 villages in the south to evacuate earlier on Catholic Easter Monday, including in Christian-majority areas that were largely spared from earlier displacement directives.

What happens next? The two sides will meet on Friday to “further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. Trump said Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which he called a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The question is whether the ceasefire will hold: An hour after the ceasefire announcement, the UAE’s Defense Ministry warned that sounds heard this morning are the result of interceptions of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Qatar and Kuwait also reported a fresh round of missile attacks, while Saudi Arabia issued a security alert to residents.

Market reax: Oil dipped below USD 100 / bbl following the news, with Brent dropping as much as 16% to below USD 92 earlier today.

Indian stock markets cheer

BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 — India’s benchmark indices — rallied following the ceasefire announcement. Sensex jumped 3.8% while Nifty surged 3.6% after recording losses for six consecutive weeks. The surge was more pronounced in the stocks of companies with significant exposure to the MENA region, including InterGlobe Aviation (+10%), parent company of India’s largest domestic carrier IndiGo; construction major Larsen & Toubro (+7.9%), which earns 40% of its revenue from the region; and Adani Ports (+5%), a major stakeholder in Israel’s Haifa port.

Macro pressure will ease if ceasefire holds

Opening the Strait of Hormuz and a decline in crude oil prices would ease macroeconomic pressures on India. While eight India-flagged vessels crossed the strait following intense high-level diplomatic talks between Tehran and New Delhi, the arrangement was barely sustainable for the country. Some 90% of India’s LPG imports pass through the strait, and the blockade prompted the government to cut supplies to industrial consumers to prioritize domestic users.

Meanwhile, a USD 10 / bbl rise in crude prices adds up to USD 18 bn to India’s import bill, widening the current account deficit and boosting inflation by 60 bps. Many ratings agencies had already trimmed India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal year while highlighting knock-on effects on the industrial output. A sustained ceasefire, declining crude prices, and uninterrupted access to Gulf trade via Hormuz are likely to ease the macroeconomic stress.

^^Want to read more? We previously covered how the war has impacted India’s economy and industry (here, here, and here).

India weighs USD 2 bn credit lifeline for war-hit businesses

India is weighing an INR 200 bn (USD 2.1 bn) credit support plan to support small businesses in sectors affected by the war, Hindu Businessline reports. The plan will target segments facing immediate stress, including MSMEs and the aviation sector, where route disruptions and rising fuel costs are affecting operations.

The structure: The plan would have the government provide sovereign assurances to banks on loans extended to affected businesses, covering up to 90% of the credit in case of default. The assurances are expected to remain in place for up to four years and would be routed through a framework used during the Covid-19 pandemic for a similar credit support program.

Why it matters: The move extends policy response from trade facilitation to credit support as disruption in the Middle East corridor begins to strain cashflows for Indian businesses. The region accounted for 13.3% of India’s exports and 16.4% of imports in April-January FY 2026 (pdf).

War risks for India’s financial sector

A prolonged war threatens India’s financial sector through multi-layered stress — extended supply chains, rising costs, and tighter liquidity, ANI News reports, citing analysis by EY.

From margins to cashflows: Second-order effects are expected to show up through margin cuts, delayed investments, and stretched working capital cycles. Rising input, freight, and ins. costs are beginning to squeeze on corporate profitability and cashflows.

Systemic spillovers: The emergence of third-order risks, such as supplier stress, payment delays, and selective job losses, could particularly impact retail borrowers and small-to-medium enterprises. These factors may heighten cashflow volatility and eventually manifest as asset-quality risks, EY notes.

Why it matters: With a large share of remittances linked to the Gulf, prolonged conflict could further weaken household cashflows, amplifying credit risks. Lenders are navigating supply shocks alongside AI-driven employment risks, especially in the services sector. The combined impact of income stress and inflation could strain household finances further, with loan stress likely to surface two quarters down the line.

The war is testing Indian students’ confidence in the UAE

The war is beginning to test the UAE’s main selling point for Indian university students — the promise of a safe, nearby, low-cost alternative to Western education. While the Emirates has seen a drastic surge in enrolments from the subcontinent in recent years, regional uncertainty due to the war is leading Indian students and families to price risk into their choice of study destinations.

The UAE market is heavily skewed towards undergraduate Indian students, making it particularly sensitive to parental risk perception at this stage, Praneet Singh, assistant VP of study abroad at education firm UpGrad, tells EnterpriseAM. He describes the current instability as “unprecedented for a country seen as among the safest globally.”

“The ceasefire will not change sentiment until peace returns in the Middle East. It will take time […] people are confused,” says Sanjay Narang, center director of Delhi at KC Overseas Education. “We were doing so well in the UAE. It was the closest and most secure option, but the war has shaken confidence.” Visa hurdles in the US and Canada, a weak job market in the UK, affordability concerns in Australia, and capacity intake as well as language limits in Europe — all of these factors have limited options for students.

It has an immediate impact: A 10-15% drop in applications from India is expected if disruptions persist through June, says Singh. In Dubai, regulators have endorsed remote learning till 17 April, and campuses are yet to provide firm timelines for resumption.

The next 4-6 weeks will be critical for decision-making, when fee deposits are paid and travel decisions are locked in. Undergraduate students are highly exposed with limited flexibility to defer, unlike postgraduates, Narang explains. Most admitted for the April intake in the UAE have deferred enrolment to September.

In the interim: Some families are considering options such as starting in private Indian institutions or markets like Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, or New Zealand, though course options in these countries are much narrower and costs are steeper, according to Narang. Some universities are offering hybrid packages — a year of study in India followed by overseas completion — such as Australia’s Deakin University. These pathways are gaining traction as families seek flexibility, he said.

Emirati institutions moved quickly to contain disruptions with online classes or advanced summer breaks, while “overcommunicating” with students through check-ins and helplines, Singh tells us, adding that Upgrad has not received any panic-driven transfer requests so far.

Cost is a key stabilizer: Moving from the UAE to the UK, the US, or Canada would raise expenses by anywhere up to USD 42k, limiting the likelihood of abrupt migration despite safety concerns, argues Singh. “The UAE’s return on investment, career outcomes, and residency pathways like the Golden Visa remain intact,” and will likely re-anchor demand once hostilities subside. Institutions, however, may have to compete harder on flexibility, refunds, and mobility pathways to offset perceived risk.

Dubai-based AI firm Valura lines up advisors ahead of India launch

UAE-based AI-native investment platform Valura.ai has onboarded over 1k wealth advisors across India ahead of its launch, Hindu Businessline reports. The platform, which operates out of Dubai International Financial Center and Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City), claims a pipeline of over USD 357 mn in assets over the next 18 months.

How it works: The platform provides access to over 100k global securities — including equities, ETFs, bonds, and structured products — held in local custody at Gift City under India’s International Financial Services Centres Authority regulations rather than being routed offshore. Its network includes independent financial advisers, mutual fund distributors, and chartered accountants, indicating strong early demand for global investing access.

Why it matters: The traction comes as India’s outbound investments rose 67% to USD 41.6 bn in FY 2025 and the INR weakened over 8% y-o-y, boosting demand for international investment prospects.

Haldiram’s adds Dubai outlet

Haldiram’s adds second Dubai outlet: India-based packaged food and quick-service restaurant Haldiram’s rolled out a new flagship outlet in Dubai, Trade Arabia reports. The launch marks Haldiram’s second outlet in the emirate after the company entered the market in 2025.

Western private credit markets face a stress wave

Private credit funds are showing signs of liquidity stress as investors rush to redeem their capital amid transparency and AI-related risks. Firms including BlackRock, Apollo, Ares, and KKR have capped withdrawals to avoid selling illiquid loans at steep reductions, highlighting the sector’s vulnerability to shifting sentiment despite its rapid growth in recent years, Reuters reports.

Private credit providers are handling the stress wave in different ways

Several firms curbed redemptions to the limit: Blue Owl Capital faced USD 5.4 bn in redemption requests from two key funds in 1Q 2026, but capped withdrawals at 5% of each fund’s value, far below the 21.9% of investors who requested redemptions in its Credit Income Corp fund and the 40.7% in its tech lending fund. Several private credit funds also capped withdrawals at 5%, far below the requested redemption rates, including Barings (11.3%), Apollo (11.2%), Ares (11.6%), and BlackRock (9.3%).

Others decided to fully honor the requests: Goldman Sachs met all of its redemption requests while remaining below its cap, with investors requesting to repurchase just under 5% of shares in this quarter, Reuters reported separately. Meanwhile, Oaktree Capital Management decided to honor the entire 8.5% redemption requests it received in the same period.

What triggered the flight

Private credit’s murky loans come under the spotlight: Growing concerns over weak lending standards in private credit have emerged after a series of corporate failures — including Tricolor, First Brands, and Market Financial Solutions — highlighted how the sector’s opaque debt structures can quickly produce losses for both private and public lenders, even though the funds themselves are not highly leveraged, the New York Times reports.

And AI fears stoked investor caution: Investors’ worries were amplified by the circulating fears that AI might disrupt the business models of tech and software sectors, decreasing their earnings.

BUT- Blackstone blames the buzz for the flight: Blackstone President Jonathan Gray attributed the rising redemption requests to “noise” in the market, telling CNBC (watch, runtime: 15:10) that there is a gap between what is happening with the underlying portfolios and what investors read in the news.

Running the scenarios

Built for the storm: Private credit funds could weather moderate stress thanks to set amortization schedules, regular loan prepayments, and liquid reserves that typically cover most redemptions, Reuters reports. Even under conditions like 2008, these buffers allowed funds to manage outflows while staying within borrowing limits.

Still, the main risk arises if rising defaults coincide with investor withdrawals, which could strain the semi-liquid structures and force asset sales. While these funds are not banks, their growing exposure to retail investors and reliance on semi-liquid and ins.-linked capital means panic could amplify pressure. However, the USD 2 tn market is small relative to banking, so any fallout would likely be contained.

Sensex	77,549	+3.9% (YTD: -12.4%)
NIFTY 50	23,984	+3.7% (YTD: -11.5%)
ADX	9,876	+2.9% (YTD: -3.9%)
DFM	5,744	+6.2% (YTD: -10.6%)
Tadawul	11,284	+1.7% (YTD: +5.6%)
EGX30	48,171	+2.8% (YTD: +12.01%)
Boursa Kuwait	7,944	+3.1% (YTD: +15%)
QSE	10,637	+3.4% (YTD: -4.4%)
S&P 500	6,616	+0.08% (YTD: -3.3%)
FTSE 100	10,610	+2.5% (YTD: +4.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,894	+4.6% (YTD: -2.7%)
Brent crude	USD 94	-13.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.71	-5.2%
Gold	USD 4,787	+1.7%
BTC	USD 71,732	+3.7%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

APRIL

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

15-17 April (Wednesday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi is expected to be held between July-August. Dates yet to be announced;
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle. Dates yet to be announced;
India Mobile Congress, New Delhi will likely be held in October. Dates yet to be announced.

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