Good afternoon, friends, and a very happy FRIDAY to you all.

The big story today: The Indian government plans to simplify the customs clearance process by reducing the number of duty slabs in the upcoming budget. The finance ministry also intends to roll out USD 2.6 bn in incentives to bolster the manufacturing of heavy construction equipment and the automobile supply chain.

Reliance Industries, India’s largest refiner, has expressed interest in buying Venezuelan crude. This signals to Washington D.C. that the company is aligning with its policy as it is steering away from Russian crude.

ALSO- Investments in Indian tech startups recorded a multi-year decline in 2025; Gulf investors also showed tepid interest.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

POLICY— India’s finance ministry plans to scrap its 2020 curbs on Chinese bidders for government contracts, a policy change that would remove a key bottleneck for Gulf-backed infrastructure projects. The 2020 regulations effectively barred Chinese firms from participating in public tenders, Reuters reports, citing officials familiar with the discussions.

What’s changing? Since the 2020 border clashes, Chinese firms have needed political and security clearances to bid on projects — a de facto ban that locked them out of an estimated USD 750 bn in contract opportunities. Now, a high-level committee has recommended dropping these barriers.

Why this matters: Major infrastructure projects, from solar parks to metro lines, have faced delays and cost overruns due to a lack of specialist equipment and engineering, procurement, and construction contractors. Restricting Chinese competition drove up project costs.

What happens next? The recommendation is currently with the Prime Minister’s Office for a final decision. If approved, expect a potential acceleration in project timelines for infrastructure projects backed by Gulf investors.

CURRENCY—The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears to have drawn a line in the sand at INR to the USD at 90, intervening for the second consecutive day to pull the currency back from the brink of a psychological low. The central bank sold USD via state-run banks to bolster the INR, following this intervention, the INR strengthened to 89.85 per USD, Hindu Businessline reports.

Why it matters: Traditionally, a weakening INR also triggers a surge in remittances from the estimated 8.5 mn Indians in the Gulf, as expats lock in more INR per AED or SAR. For Gulf importers, a defended INR means predictable pricing, but it also means Indian goods are not getting the currency discount that usually accompanies a global USD surge.

GDP WATCH— India’s real GDP growth for FY 2025-26 (ending on 31 March) is forecasted at 7.4% against an earlier estimate of 6.8%, as per the first advance estimates released by the government, highlighting a robust growth environment for the Gulf investors. Nominal GDP is forecasted at 8% in this fiscal year — set to cross USD 4 tn this year, placing India in the world’s top four economies. The revision was driven by a sharp rebound in services, manufacturing, and investment.

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The big story abroad

It’s an unusually quiet afternoon in the global business press, with most of the attention split towards the fatal shooting of an American woman and mother by an ICE agent and an Internet blackout in Iran as protests continue. Plus: A megamerger in the mining world could create the world’s largest mining player, with a value of USD 260 bn, after Glencore and Rio Tinto restarted talks for a merger, the Financial Times reports.

Meanwhile, the US Senate made a rare vote to prevent US President Donald Trump from taking any further military action in Venezuela without authorization from Congress, the New York Times reports.

AND CLOSER TO HOME- A Saudi military spokesperson claimed that the UAE helped extract Yemen’s Southern Transition Council leader Aidarous Al-Zubaidi from the Yemeni port city of Aden to Abu Dhabi, though the UAE government has yet to comment on the claim. Al Zubaidi was due to show up at talks in Riyadh with a wider STC delegation, but failed to show up, prompting the Saudi-backed government in Yemen to expel him from the government. (Bloomberg)

Circle your calendar

India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Budget for FY 2026-27 on Sunday, 1 February, ANI News reports. Prior to the budget, the ministry will publish the annual Economic Survey Report which serves as a “state of the union” on all things macroeconomy. Due to the rare Sunday presentation, stock exchanges indicated holding a special trading session on the day.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.