Adia’s wager on India’s biggest asset manager

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS AFTERNOON: India-Oman JV rallies 20%

Good afternoon, everyone. The drums of war have returned as Donald Trump declared that the Iran ceasefire “is over.” We have more on the breakdown of the ceasefire and the latest US strikes below.

First up: An LNG carrier voyaging from Qatar to India suffered damage in a suspected drone attack in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel was sailing from Ras Laffan in Qatar to Dahej, Gujarat when the strike reportedly triggered a fire in the engine room. Qatar condemned the attack as a violation of international law and blamed Iran.

Adia is set to anchor the IPO of SBI Funds Management, India’s largest asset manager. That’s not a one-off. Gulf sovereign funds deployed USD 1.7 bn into India in the first half of 2026.

Shyam Steel just opened its first overseas plant in Sharjah, using the UAE as a launchpad for its global expansion.

Omfico gains 20% on debut

Oman India Fertilizer Company (Omfico), an Oman-based ammonia and urea producer backed by an Omani and Indian state-run firm, gained about 22% trading on its Muscat debut. As of dispatch time, the stock traded at 185 baisa, compared with its 156 baisa offer price, after the company’s IPO raised OMR 261 mn (USD 678 mn).

Omfico is 50% owned by Oman’s state-owned energy company OQ, while Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative and Krishak Bharati Cooperative each hold 25%. The offer price valued Omfico at OMR 1.04 bn (USD 2.7 bn). The listing drew USD 12 bn in orders, including demand from regional wealth funds. For more details about the listing follow our coverage here.

Market context: The listing comes as Gulf equity capital markets face a slowdown that began before the US-Iran war. Oman has been less exposed compared to its GCC peers as it retained access to export routes outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Fertilizer ships clear Hormuz

India’s fertilizer supply chain is recovering after Gulf shipping disruptions, with 15 vessels carrying fertilizer and raw materials transiting through the Strait of Hormuz as of 5 July, according to the Chemicals and Fertilizers Ministry. The cargoes include 332k tons of urea, 257k tons of diammonium phosphate (DAP), and 111k tons of sulfur, and are expected to reach Indian ports in the next few days.

Another five vessels are scheduled for India, including one carrying 25k tons of ammonia and another carrying 45k tons of urea. Two more vessels are being loaded with urea, while another is being loaded with sulfur.

India widened its fertilizer sourcing base during the crisis, arranging urea supplies from Oman, Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey, among others, while securing DAP and nitrogen, phosphorus and, potassium (NPK) fertilizers from suppliers in Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia through routes including the Red Sea.

Domestic buffer: Natural gas supply to fertilizer plants has been fully restored after temporarily falling to nearly 65%, allowing domestic urea plants to run at full capacity. India produced 7.1 mn tons of urea in 1Q FY 2027, beating its target by 369k tons. DAP output also came in above target at 984k tons, while NPK fertilizer production stood at 2.1 mn tons and single super phosphate output stood at 1.3 mn tons.

Some 51% of India’s annual fertilizer requirement — estimated at 38.3 mn tons — is secured, the ministry said.

DP World expands India coastal shipping fleet

UAE logistics major DP World is expanding its India coastal shipping footprint with the acquisition of DP World Indus, a container vessel with a capacity of more than 2.5k TEUs, as per a press release.

Strengthening the network: The vessel will be operated by DP World’s Shipping Solutions along local coastal routes, expanding interconnectivity along a network of 14 ports and 10 vessels in India.

Why it matters: India’s coastal shipping remains underutilized due to longstanding regulatory and cost barriers, leaving most domestic cargo dependent on road and rail. Expanding its India-flagged fleet enables DP World to move containers more efficiently across Indian ports before connecting them to international gateways. This creates a more integrated India-Gulf logistics corridor with lower costs, faster transit times, and enhanced supply-chain resilience.

Data point

40.4% — that’s the percentage of passenger cars sold in India in June that run on alternative fuels, a record high, according to data (pdf) from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations. Compressed natural gas vehicles brought in the lion’s share of sales at 24.3%, followed by hybrid (8.3%) and electric (7.8%) vehicles, as consumers felt the impact of the repeated fuel price hikes triggered by the Iran war.

Why it matters: The trend toward alternative-fuel vehicles is a sign that oil shocks in the Middle East can ripple through to India’s consumer markets. Even a short-lived spike in oil prices may accelerate the shift toward vehicles with lower running costs, making energy security a bigger factor in India’s vehicle transition.

PSAs

Riyadh Air will begin operations in India, with daily flights between Mumbai and Riyadh starting from 4 August, according to a press release. The route will connect Mumbai to London, Madrid, Jeddah, and Cairo via the Saudi capital. The launch follows Air India Express’ complete restoration of its Middle East routes — signaling that airlines are once again reverting to the India-MENA air corridor.

The big story abroad

The US-Iran conflict has reignited, as the US military launched a series of retaliatory strikes against Iran, putting at risk the interim agreement inked between the two sides last month. The US Central Command said the attacks came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. The US strikes were reportedly launched against military targets.

Washington also revoked a waiver that allowed Tehran to sell oil openly on global markets. The 60-day exemption was issued last month, allowing the Islamic Republic to conduct such transactions in USD — even to US importers.

Iran has not claimed responsibility for the attacks on vessels in the strait, but reiterated its authority over parts of the waterway in a document submitted to the International Maritime Organization — the United Nations’ shipping agency.

We’ll be closely watching the Iranian response and how these developments impact oil prices — which dipped below USD 80 / bbl after the agreement and now sit around the USD 75 mark.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: E-commerce behemoth Amazon plans to bankroll its AI investments by raising USD 25 bn in USD-denominated bond sales. This dovetails into a recent trend of tech players resorting to debt markets to build AI infrastructure, as seen by the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta.

The latest offering from Meta’s AI overhaul is here — an image-generation model. Muse Spark Image can be used to generate images from scratch or edit existing images. It can also be used to power new editing features on Instagram.

And on Wall Street: Private equity firms are now saddled with a nine-year backlog of unsold companies — some 13.5k in the US alone — as potential buyers hesitate to buy software-heavy portfolios amid fears AI will disrupt tech-based business models, analysis by PwC finds. For reference, buyout firms typically aim to hold investments for around three to five years.

PLUS- Nato allies went on a USD 50 bn defense agreement spree during the summit in Ankara, signalling an attempt by Europe to meet demands from US President Donald Trump.

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Adia is set to anchor SBI Funds Management USD 1.2 bn listing

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is set to anchor the USD 1.2 bn IPO of India’s largest asset manager, SBI Funds Management, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. Singapore’s GIC is also expected to join the anchor book.

The details so far: SBI Funds, a joint venture between State Bank of India and France’s Amundi, manages INR 12.5 tn (USD 131.1 bn) in assets and is targeting a valuation of around USD 12.3 bn. The IPO will see the two shareholders collectively sell a 10% stake and is expected to open next week.

Demand outpaces supply: The issue has attracted commitments worth nearly five times the institutional allocation, led by domestic investors alongside sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf and Singapore, the newswire added. Despite the strong institutional interest, the company plans to reserve half the offering for retail investors.

Adia recently backed Kotak Alternate Asset Managers’ USD 1 bn India real estate fund with a commitment of more than USD 675 mn. It also backed Rajasthan-based KRN Heat Exchangers’ USD 36.8 mn QIP and participated in Acme Solar’s USD 328 mn equity raise.

IN CONTEXT- India’s primary listings witnessed a downturn in early 2026 on the back of macroeconomic volatility and regional oil price surges, forcing foreign allocators to sell USD 29 bn worth of Indian equities. The listing will be followed by major offerings from Mubadala-backed Manipal Health, the National Stock Exchange, and Adia, PIF, and QIA-backed Reliance Jio Platforms in the upcoming quarters.

ADVISORS- Bookrunning lead managers include Kotak Mahindra Capital, Axis Bank, SBI Capital Markets, Motilal Oswal, ICICI Securities, JM Financial and Indian units of Citigroup, HSBC, and Bank of America. KFin Technologies is the registrar to the offer.

Gulf funds deploy USD 1.7 bn in India despite Iran war

Gulf sovereign funds poured USD 1.7 bn in India in 1H 2026, keeping the country on their deployment map despite the Iran war, the Economic Times reports, citing data from industry tracker Global SWF.

By the numbers: This was the highest half-year investment by Gulf SWFs since 1H 2024 and double the USD 700 mn deployed in 1H 2025. The funds deployed USD 53.9 bn globally across 108 transactions in 1H, with India accounting for 3% of their global deployment during the period.

“Among Gulf investors, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund are likely to be the most active in India over the medium term, given their new offices,” Global SWF founder and MD Diego Lopez told the daily.

Why it matters: The data suggests Gulf investments into India remained steady despite the Iran war exposing vulnerabilities across the India-MENA corridor, including energy, shipping, and banking risks.

MRPL, IOC secure Iraqi crude cargo amid Hormuz reopening

Iraq oil flows resume: Indian state-owned refiners are returning to Iraq’s crude market, signaling a normalization after weeks of disruption post the US-Israel-Iran war.

The latest: Indian Oil Corporation has chartered a VLCC Lila Jamnagar to lift around 2 mn barrels of Basrah oil from Iraq around 23 July, while Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals has booked the Aframax tanker Jasmin Joy to load Basrah oil for its 300k bbl / d New Mangalore refinery, Reuters reports (here and here).

REMEMBER- MRPL was the first state-owned refiner to secure Iraqi cargo since the partial reopening of the Hormuz.

Why it matters: The latest charter bookings suggest that Indian refiners are rebuilding Iraqi oil supplies which the Iran war brought to a halt. These early signs come with an overhang of higher freight charges, war-risk ins., and stricter compliance requirements.

A reversal: Just weeks ago, IOC had failed to attract a single bid to lift Iraqi crude and declared force majeure on the cargo as shipowners balked at sailing through the Hormuz.

The takeaway: Despite Indian refiners securing Iraqi crude cargoes, the shipping conditions are yet to return to pre-war levels. The pace at which freight and ins. costs ease going ahead will determine how quickly normal trades will resume.

Saudi, Russia step up fight for crude market

Gulf producers and Russia are competing for a share in Asian oil markets. Saudi Arabia’s Aramco has cut the August official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia by USD 11 / bbl, offering a USD 1.5 / bbl premium over the regional benchmark — its lowest level in nearly four years, Bloomberg reports.

Russia follows: Markdowns on Russia’s flagship Urals crude have also widened to more than USD 10 / bbl for August deliveries in India, reversing the premium it commanded between March and June when low Gulf supplies pushed buyers toward Russian barrels.

Spoilt for choice: Middle East producers are ramping up oil exports, while Russia is exporting more crude after Ukraine drone attacks curtailed domestic refining. Chinese refiners, too, have stepped up Gulf buying, weakening the demand for Russian crude.

The backdrop: India imported a record 4.9 mn bbl / d of crude in June, half of which was supplied by Russia.

Iranian crude back on India’s radar?

India’s plans to secure more Iranian oil have been put on hold as fresh US sanctions on Tehran oil throw a spanner in the works. State-run refiners had held talks with traders marketing Iranian oil to buy barrels if the sanctions waiver extended beyond August, Bloomberg reports. As Washington revoked the license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, Indian refiners may have to wait until the dust settles.

IN CONTEXT- Iranian crude was being offered up to USD 5 / bbl below Brent, which made the offer attractive for refiners. Indian state refiners had already booked crude shipments through August after securing supplies early during the Middle East conflict, leaving little room for immediate Iranian cargoes. Any new purchase of Iranian oil may be considered for September deliveries, if sanctions ease.

Why it matters: Iran accounted for as much as 10% of India’s oil imports in 2018 before US sanctions choked flows. Since then, flows from the Middle East — including the UAE, where shipments hit a multi-year high in May — and Russia have emerged as dominant suppliers.

India plans its first strategic natural gas reserve

India is mulling developing its first-ever strategic natural gas storage system after the Iran war exposed the country’s vulnerability to LNG and LPG supply disruptions, Hindu Businessline reports, citing an unnamed source. Senior government officials are carrying out assessments on the contours of the storage system.

State-run energy companies are evaluating multiple storage options: underground salt caverns, depleted gas fields, and above-ground cryogenic LNG tanks. Engineers India is conducting feasibility studies given that Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL), which manages the country’s crude oil reserves, does not have expertise in gas storage using salt caverns.

Supply security takes center stage: The move follows concerns over India’s dependence on the Gulf, which supplies more than half of its LNG and LPG imports. Building strategic gas reserves would provide a buffer against price and supply volatilities.

Indian steelmaker invests USD 16.3 mn in its first overseas manufacturing unit

Manufacturing shift: Indian steelmaker Shyam Steel Group opened its first manufacturing facility outside India in Sharjah’s Hamriyah Freezone to produce recycled aluminum and copper alloys, as per a press release. The plant was set up with an investment of AED 60 mn (USD 16.3 mn) through its local subsidiary and will cater to customers across the GCC, Africa, Asia, and Europe.

Why it matters: The investment indicates that Indian companies are using the UAE as a manufacturing base to serve local and export markets. Hamriyah’s port connectivity, freezone incentives, and proximity to regional markets make it an attractive hub for businesses looking to shorten supply chains, improve export logistics, and diversify beyond India.

What’s next: Shyam Steel plans to invest another AED 150 mn (around USD 40.8 mn) to expand the facility into specialty alloy steel and rare earth metals production.

Adani secures USD 10 bn as investor confidence returns

Adani Group has mobilized nearly USD 10 bn in fresh capital and investment commitments within a week, including a major investment from the UAE, marking a sharp turnaround in overseas investor sentiment, Mint reports.

Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC) is among the biggest backers, committing USD 5.7 bn for a greenfield aluminum joint venture in Odisha, matching Adani’s investment commitment. Wall Street heavyweights including BlackRock, Blackstone, Vanguard, and Goldman Sachs have backed Adani Enterprises’ USD 1.6 bn qualified institutional placement, in a sign of renewed institutional support.

Multiple funding sources: This includes a planned USD 1.1 bn QIP by Adani Energy Solutions, with a shareholders vote to ratify it on 25 July, and the sale of a 49% stake in the Vizhinjam transshipment port to MSC’s subsidiary for USD 539 mn.

On the heels of dropped charges: The fundraising follows settlement of the group’s major judicial disputes in the US. In June, the US Department of Justice dropped criminal fraud charges against Chairman Gautam Adani, while the US Treasury settled a sanctions-related probe involving Adani Enterprises for USD 275 mn and the US Securities and Exchange Commission resolved a separate civil case for USD 18 mn.

Oxford Economics sees faster growth ahead, conditional on a peace that could still fall apart

The global economy is set to pick up speed in the second half of 2026 — but only if the US-Iran truce holds. Global GDP is expected to expand by 3.1% annualized in 2H, with the acceleration concentrated in developing economies, according to an Oxford Economics report seen by EnterpriseAM. The mechanism is straightforward — lower oil prices lift real disposable income and consumption. The condition to see it realized is less clear.

A coin flip peace

Oxford Economics puts the odds of a durable US-Iran agreement at 50-50. The conflict initially drove oil prices higher, lifted inflation, and weighed on growth. The ceasefire reversed that — sending prices lower and reopening the strait to shipping. But the truce is fragile. Renewed military strikes at the end of June mean the breakdown scenario is very much alive, and a return to hostilities would push inflationary pressure back up fast.

The supply chain exposure

Western AI investment has a strait-shaped vulnerability. US AI spending relies on components from Northeast Asia and ASEAN — regions exposed to disruptions in energy shipments through Hormuz. Critical components also depend on specialized manufacturers in South Korea and Germany, leaving the supply chain exposed to unexpected shocks.

China benefited from the disruptions, but that won’t last. Chinese exports benefited from the supply chain disruptions caused by the war, helping offset weakness in traditional export sectors and restrictions on refined petroleum products exports. But over the medium term, a stronger RMB, rising trade barriers, higher factory prices, and weaker global demand could leave China sitting on growing overcapacity.

The tariff calendar

New US tariffs are coming in July. The Trump administration will introduce new Section 301 tariffs to replace Section 122, which expires on 24 July. The replacement is expected to be marginally higher, targeting USD 25-30 bn in monthly revenue to help fund the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The revised USMCA agreement, meanwhile, is no longer expected to lower tariffs, with current rates to stay in place indefinitely.

AND- Brussels and Beijing are heading for a collision. The European Commission expanded its trade-defense investigations against China to more than 50, with duties already imposed on electric vehicles, solar supply chains, and glass fiber. New economic security tools are also planned by September, raising the risk of Chinese retaliation.

What changes if the truce holds

Central banks get room to ease. Lower oil prices would reduce inflation pressures, giving central banks less reason to keep raising interest rates. The ECB’s case for additional hikes disappears — the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all expected to take a less aggressive path than the current one. A renewed escalation, though, pushes everyone back toward tightening.

Several elections could reshape the picture heading into 2027. US midterm elections are expected to produce a divided government even if Democrats secure both chambers, limiting prospects for additional fiscal stimulus while raising the odds of a debt ceiling standoff. Meanwhile, Israel’s parliamentary elections could influence ceasefire negotiations with Iran. German state elections may also test coalition stability and complicate the ECB’s outlook.

The biggest upside risk to the global outlook is stronger-than-expected AI investment and productivity gains, particularly in the US and Asia. Sizable spending on data centers, utilities, and major projects such as Australia’s 2032 Olympics could deliver a bigger growth boost than current forecasts assume.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed in early trading this morning. South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.5% after Samsung’s 2Q preliminary earnings triggered a selloff that pushed the tech giant down 4.4%. Japan’s Nikkei was also down, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are looking at moderate gains.

Sensex	76,470	-2.1% (YTD: -10.2%)
NIFTY 50	23,812	-2.4% (YTD: -8.7%)
ADX	9,839	-1.02% (YTD: -1.5%)
DFM	5,942	-2.4% (YTD: -1.7%)
Tadawul	10,827	-0.2% (YTD: +3.2%)
EGX30	52,093	-1.7% (YTD: +24.5%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,745	-1.08% (YTD: +5.3%)
QSE	10,155	-0.9% (YTD: -5.6%)
S&P 500	7,503	-0.4% (YTD: +9.6%)
FTSE 100	10,491	-1.6% (YTD: +5.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,187	-2.1% (YTD: +6.8%)
Brent crude	USD 78	+6.04%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.3	+2.08%
Gold	USD 4,057	-2.4%
BTC	USD 61,951	-2%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

EAM discusses trade, regional developments with Bahrain’s king, crown prince

Jaishankar is in Bahrain: India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa on Monday, according to a post on X, as New Delhi steps up its engagement with the Gulf amid growing economic and geopolitical convergence. He also held talks with Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, discussing trade, investments, and geopolitical developments in the region.

Why it matters: India is looking to fast-track freetrade agreement talks with Bahrain. The kingdom remains among India’s leading trade partners, with bilateral trade reaching USD 1.6 bn in FY 2026. India exported goods worth USD 779 mn, while imports stood at USD 888 mn, driven by aluminum, methanol, and fertilizers.

The bigger picture: Bahrain is the second stop on Jaishankar’s four-nation Gulf tour, which also includes Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait. The visit reflects India’s broader push to strengthen political and economic ties with the GCC.

CALENDAR

JULY

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday): Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

Dates TBA: Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday): Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharma Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the October / September policy cycle.

7-10 October (Wednesday-Saturday): India Mobile Congress, Yashobhoomi, New Delhi.

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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