How the Iran war is changing India’s energy purchases from the Gulf

The UAE unseated Saudi Arabia as India’s second-largest crude oil supplier in May, capitalizing on a three-month shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Moneycontrol reports, citing Kpler data. UAE’s Fujairah feedstocked Indian refineries better than Saudi’s Yanbu pipeline.

By the numbers: India imported about 540k bbl / d from the UAE in May, down 5% from April but up 166% from March levels, when India imported just 203k bbl / d. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia held the spot of the third-largest supplier with 398k bbl / d, as shipments fell by 41% compared to April and the Hormuz blockade persisted. Russia retained its position as India’s top supplier, with shipments at 1.9 mn bbl / d.

Why it matters: The UAE’s rise in India’s crude basket also comes on the back of the two countries doubling down on expanding strategic petroleum reserves, LNG supplies, and energy security during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Abu Dhabi.

What’s next: We keep an eye out for whether Indian state and private refiners begin shifting their long-term contracts toward Adnoc later this year. If they do, the temporary logistical choke could become a structural market-share loss for Saudi Aramco in India.

The US is now India's top LPG supplier

The US has displaced traditional Gulf suppliers to become India's largest source of cooking gas imports in the first 90 days of the war, dramatically altering India's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supply chain, Hindu Businessline reports, picking up Kpler data.

It all adds up: India imported 1.4 mn tonnes of LPG from the US between March and May, commanding 44% share of India’s total imports. Last year, India had imported merely 90k tonnes accounting for 2.7% of the total imports.

The market is running exceptionally tight: Sourcing from major Gulf suppliers — the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait — dropped to 38% from 93% of total imports a year earlier. LPG cargoes moving through Hormuz fell from an average 1.5 tonnes in 2025 to just 300k tonnes after the conflict began.

Even as the US gained market share, India’s LPG imports declined nearly 40% y-o-y during this period, making it clear that the alternate sources are not adequate to meet the country’s demand.

Oman gains

Oman emerged as India’s largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in March and April, overtaking long-time leader Qatar. India imported 489k tonnes of LNG from Oman in March — nearly 30% market share. Qatar’s share plunged to just 8% from 41% last year.

The Hormuz workaround: Attacks on Qatar’s energy infrastructure and the Hormuz disruptions, curtailed exports from Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex. As supplies tightened, Indian importers turned to Oman, the US and Nigeria to fill the gap. Oman has been particularly well-positioned to capture market share because its LNG export facilities are located outside the Hormuz, insulating supplies from the conflict. India is expected to continue relying heavily on Oman until Gulf gas flows normalize.

Demand destruction

India is expected to see slower growth in gasoline and diesel consumption this year after four rounds of fuel-price increases since mid-May, in the aftermath of soaring crude costs, Reuters reports. Indian state refiners hiked retail gasoline by 7.8% and diesel by 8.6%, prompting analysts to lower demand forecasts for the world’s third-largest oil consumer.

Demand projections for gasoline have been cut to 3.7% from 4%, while diesel demand growth is now projected at 2%, down from 2.5%, Dylan Sim, an analyst at FGE NexantECA, told the newswire.

Retailers still in a sweat: Price hikes have only partially offset losses for state-run retailers Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum, which continue to lose a combined INR 5.5 bn (USD 57 mn) daily by selling fuel below market rates. Additional pump price increases are expected if crude remains near USD 100 / bbl.

Trucking slowdown imminent: Early signs of demand slowdown are emerging in the freight sector. Trucking rates have fallen by up to 15% across most long-haul routes due to higher diesel prices. Transportation firms are reporting delays of three to five days in securing return cargoes as manufacturing activity slows. Gasoline sales growth slowed to 2.8% y-o-y in May from 6.8% in April, as hiked fuel costs begin to weigh on consumer and industrial activity.

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