India’s auto export engine runs into Gulf route risk

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to moderate India’s auto exports and squeeze margins for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The risk is not an immediate derailment of export momentum, but a slower, costlier route from overseas demand to dispatches and revenue, Rohan Kanwar Gupta, vice president at ICRA, tells EnterpriseAM.

Why it matters: India’s passenger vehicle exports rose 17.5%y-o-yto 905k units in FY 2026, with demand steady across the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The Middle East and the GCC are vital export markets for India’s vehicle industry, making up 20-25% of overall exports and acting as a crucial gateway to Africa and other parts of the world. “Any prolonged disruption due to the ongoing Middle East conflict could therefore moderate export volumes for Indian OEMs, especially if shipping timelines, container availability, or route visibility remain constrained,” Gupta notes.

The ripple effects: A slowdown in OEM export volumes will inevitably lead to a downstream blow to India’s auto component suppliers. From a logistics standpoint, rerouting ships away from the Suez Canal and around the Cape of Good Hope has already increased transit times by several weeks and caused freight rates to spike. For exporters, this translates into longer lead times, delayed export dispatches, and increased working capital requirements across the sector, Gupta tells us.

OEMs are facing a barrage of elevated costs, including longer transit times, higher freight and ins. premiums, currency volatility, and expensive raw materials. “OEMs are likely to look at selective price hikes to partly offset cost pressures,” Gupta explains. However, companies will need to balance these hikes against the risk of dampening demand. In the near term, manufacturers could lean on a mix of cost-control measures, supply-chain adjustments, and alternate routing rather than immediately passing the full cost burden onto overseas customers.

What to watch on the credit side: The disruption could become a material credit risk if it leads to “sustained moderation in export volumes, margin compression, and elevated working capital intensity,” according to Gupta. While temporary freight bumps are manageable, persistent logistics costs, inventory buildups, and delayed shipments could severely impact revenue conversion over multiple quarters.

Who is most at risk? “At this stage, the risk appears to be more of intermittent supply-chain bottlenecks rather than an industry-wide production halt. Specialized processes such as foundries, forging, casting, and paint shops, along with smaller MSME suppliers, could be more vulnerable because they may have limited flexibility to shift quickly to alternate inputs, fuels, or suppliers,” Gupta says.

Domestic demand in India remains a reliable buffer. ICRA expects passenger vehicle wholesale volumes to grow 4-6% in FY 2027, supported by demand momentum, indirect tax reforms, and new model launches. Growth, however, is expected to moderate from FY 2026 because of the high base and a weak monsoon outlook, Gupta cautions.