India leans on MENA for Hormuz workarounds, weighs INR support

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Manipal to join the league of India’s biggest healthcare listings

Good afternoon, wonderful people. Today’s issue is all about hedging, as the war weighs on India’s heavily import-reliant economy.

The government is firing on all fronts, as we note in our Big Story Today, with plans to potentially slash taxes on foreign investors investing in sovereign bonds, tighten gold flows to prevent a USD exodus, and as the government secures workarounds for oil imports through GCC partnerships and for phosphate through a potential industrial base in Egypt.

There’s also a big aviation theme this morning, as we look at how the war has jolted India’s international aviation model, forcing local airlines to pull back from long-haul routes and exposing vulnerabilities in the air hub model that has historically relied heavily on Middle East hubs for traffic. Plus: Several sovereign wealth funds are reportedly eyeing an investment in Adani Airport Holding.

One of India’s largest healthcare listings gathers pace

Mubadala-backed Indian hospital operator Manipal Hospitals network, is set to begin formal investor marketing for its over USD 1 bn IPO as early as next week, Bloomberg quotes people in the know as saying. The company filed its draft prospectus with India’s market regulator in March.

Heavy sovereign backing: Mubadala, alongside two other funds, purchased a minority stake of 8% in Manipal Health from Singapore’s Temasek in 2024 for an undisclosed amount. It will not be selling any of its stake during the IPO.

The details: The proposed IPO includes a fresh INR 80 bn (USD 960 mn) issue alongside a secondary sale of a 3.66% stake by existing investors. Key selling shareholders include global investors such as TPG, Temasek, Novo Holdings and others. The firm is targeting a valuation of around USD 12 bn.

Why it matters: The offering comes as Indian equity markets stabilize after a period of volatility linked to the war, with improving sentiment supporting activity. If the USD 12 bn valuation holds, it would validate Manipal’s aggressive M&A-led expansion that it deployed to scale rapidly across India — a model increasingly being studied and replicated by healthcare players in MENA.

Advisors: The offering is being managed by Kotak Mahindra Capital, Axis Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS and DBS, positioning it among the largest healthcare listings in India.

Twin moves to defend the INR

India is pulling two levers at once to defend the INR as the oil shock weighs on the external account: Easing taxes to pull foreign capital in, and tightening gold flows to slow stymie the exit of USD. The INR is down more than 6% YTD, making it Asia’s weakest-performing currency.

#1- Tax cut for FPIs: India is mulling a reduction in taxes levied on foreign investors on sovereign bonds, as policymakers seek to align with global norms and attract capital inflows, Bloomberg reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Recommended by the Reserve Bank of India, the proposal is being actively considered by the Finance Ministry.

Despite India’s inclusion in global bond indices, foreign investors hold only around 3% of the USD 1.3 tn sovereign debt market. Currently, foreign investors face capital gains taxes and about 20% tax on interest income, significantly higher than peer emerging markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia. A concessional 5% tax rate on interest income expired in 2023, further dampening inflows.

#2: Tightening export-link gold channel: New Delhi is capping dutyfree gold imports for jewelry exporters at 100kg per license, according to a government order, narrowing the advance authorization route just days after raising bullion duties. Exporters will get fresh licenses only after fulfilling 50% of earlier export obligations, with first-time applicants facing physical inspections and existing holders filing fortnightly reports.

SOUND SMART- Gold is the import line India can squeeze fastest without hitting industrial inputs such as crude, gas, fertilizers, or metals.

Why these moves matter for the corridor: Gulf investors like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Public Investment Fund have navigated the current FPI regime through complex tax treaty structures — a simplified framework would reduce friction and unlock fresh allocations into Indian sovereign debt. On the gold side, Dubai is where the pressure begins to show: The UAE is a key bullion trading and re-export hub for India, and tighter licensing plus higher duties change the economics of formal flows. If official channels slow too sharply, demand could shift to informal routes just as Delhi is trying to conserve USD and defend the INR.

JSW raises capex into infra cycle

JSWSteel is raising capex as India’s infrastructure cycle keeps demand supported, even as the Middle East conflict adds input-cost risk. The Mumbai-based steelmaker expects to spend INR 220-240 bn (USD 2.3-2.5 bn) in FY 2027, up from INR 155.9 bn (USD 1.6 bn) in FY 2026, according to its earnings release.

The guidance tracks India’s public spending cycle; the company cited the Union budget’s INR 12.2 tn FY 2027 capex allocation, up 11.5% y-oy. The spending plan also follows 7.9% growth in India’s full-year steel consumption to 164 mn tonnes. JSW plans to raise capacity to 48.8 mtpa from 31.9 mtpa by FY 2030, with key additions at Dolvi, Vijayangar, and the new JSW Utkal plant in Odisha.

The demand story is domestic, but the cost risk is global. JSW flagged the Middle East conflict as a source of supply disruption, energy-led inflation, and pressure on growth. For steelmakers, higher energy, freight and raw material costs can still squeeze margins even when Indian demand is firm. For Gulf investors and suppliers, India’s infrastructure cycle keeps steel demand visible, but the war-led commodity shock remains the near-term risk.

Adani Airport might get a USD 1.3 bn shot in the arm

INVESTMENT — Adani US settlement to help unlock global capital for the firm after months of controversy? Sovereign heavyweights including Singapore’s Temasek and UAE investor Alpha Wave Global, are in talks to inject USD 1.3 bn into Adani Airport Holdings (AAHL), the Economic Times reports, citing unnamed sources. The transaction, which would be the first external equity raise for the group’s airport unit, values India’s largest private airport operator at an estimated USD 18-20 bn.

The potential investment comes as this week Adani Chairman Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar agreed to a settlement in the US that will see them pay USD 18 mn to get their criminal fraud charges dropped. The move should help clear Adani for a wave of capital raising that had been on pause after months of legal limbo. That includes a potential USD 1 bn USD-denominated bond for Adani Group.

There’s still caveats to iron out: Negotiations for the Adani Airport investment are still ongoing, with differences over valuation expectations emerging as a key hurdle. The Adani Group is reportedly seeking a premium valuation exceeding USD 20 bn, while some investors have pushed for structured returns, terms the group has resisted.

Who’s Alpha Wave? Alpha Wave is owned by Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company ’s Judan Financial, chaired by Abu Dhabi’s Deputy Ruler Tahnoon bin Zayed, a key Adani backer.

Adani Airports operates eight airports, including Mumbai and Navi Mumbai, handling roughly 23% of India’s passenger traffic. The group is accelerating expansion, with INR 400 bn (USD 4.8 bn) in planned capex through FY 2027. Strong traffic growth expectations underpin investor interest, despite rising leverage and balance sheet pressures.

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Firing on all fronts

India is fighting the oil shock from the ongoing regional war on every front, all at once: New Delhi is moving cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz under naval cover, locking in long-term Gulf supply, passing rising fuel costs to consumers, and ramping up domestic substitution. As the shock increasingly shows up in the macro numbers, the government’s response is now evolving into a multiple-track, simultaneous move that’s increasingly built around the Gulf.

The macro picture is biting

The INR’s oil problem is now showing up in the exchange rate: The currency slipped another 0.2% today, changing hands at 95.94 / USD 1 and was on course for an over 1% weekly drop, Reuters reports. State-run banks’ USD sales helped keep the INR just off yesterday’s record low of 95.95 / USD.

India imports about 90% of its oil needs and 50% of its gas requirements, leaving the INR exposed to Gulf supply disruption and higher energy prices. Brent rose more than 1% to USD 107 / bbl after US President Donald Trump said he would not be “much more patient” with Iran, while the US-Iran ceasefire remains fragile. India is also facing a third straight year of balance-of-payments pressure as oil costs and portfolio outflows strain both the current and capital accounts.

The cushion: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sold FX reserves and used regulatory measures to slow the INR’s fall. Higher US yields added another layer of pressure, with the 10-year US bond yield rising to 4.53% — its highest in a year — as energy-driven inflation concerns fed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Barclays expects policymakers to keep curbs on non-essential consumption while looking for ways to attract USD inflows; interest rate swap markets are pricing in about 90 bps of RBI hikes over the next 12 months, though Barclays itself expects rates to remain on hold through 2026.

Cargoes moving under cover

The most immediate way to relieve that pressure is to keep cargoes physically moving, switching up its Hormuz workaround into state-backed transit support. India-bound liquefied petroleum gas tanker NV Sunshine is crossing the Strait of Hormuz with support from multiple agencies, including the Indian Navy, the Economic Times reports, citing unnamed sources. The vessel is the 15th India-bound LPG ship to move through the chokepoint. LPG is a household fuel in India, making safe passage through Hormuz part of New Delhi’s broader energy-security response rather than a pure shipping problem.

The push is wider than one vessel: Two more India-bound LPG carriers — Symi and NV Sunshine — appear to have crossed the strait, with Symi emerging in the Gulf of Oman after going dark and NV Sunshine following a few hours later, Bloomberg reports. NV Sunshine loaded LPG at the UAE’s Ruwais refinery and switched its listed destination from Mangalore to Kandla. Symi is carrying fuel from Qatar’s Ras Laffan to Kandla. Their passage brings the number of large oil, fuel, and gas vessels that have crossed Hormuz since Sunday to 10.

The escalation curve: Earlier this week, UAE-managed LPG carrier Tara Gas sailed through Hormuz while broadcasting Indian ownership and crew — indicating that Indian linkage was used as commercial and diplomatic cover. NV Sunshine takes the same logic a step further, with Indian agency and naval support behind the transit.

Iran has signaled room for diplomacy, with Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi telling ANI that the situation in the strait would improve once peace is established, and that Iran would welcome any Indian initiative to reduce regional tensions. The test now is whether India can keep moving cargoes vessel by vessel without widening the security risk. If the model holds, Gulf-based ship managers may lean more on Indian-linked ownership, crew and routing structures as practical cover through the chokepoint.

Locking in the Gulf

The structural layer of India’s response to the energy crunch shows in two parallel moves with the UAE and Oman, which together make the GCC more of a physical buffer against Hormuz risk for New Delhi. India and the UAE are set to finalize pacts on cooking gas supply and strategic petroleum reserves during Narendra Modi’s UAE visit today, Hindu Businessline reports, with talks between Modi and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan coming as Gulf shipping routes remain volatile, forcing India to reconfigure supply chains.

IN CONTEXT- India currently has 5.3 mn tonnes of strategic reserves, with plans to expand by 6.5 mn tonnes, including capacity leased to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, strengthening integration at the infrastructure level. High-level trips to the UAE have been rare since the war escalated, making Modi’s stopover notable. The UAE is among India’s largest suppliers of crude and gas with the two sides signing a USD 3 bn LNG pact as recently as January, and the UAE — following its Opec exit at the start of the month — is pursuing a more independent energy policy aligned with long-term partners like India.

The longer play is a subsea pipeline, with India ramping up plans for a USD 4.8 bn deep-sea pipeline from Oman to Gujarat, designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, Economic Times reports, citing unnamed sources. The proposed 2k km Middle East-India Deepwater Pipeline would deliver stable gas flows directly, reducing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments exposed to geopolitical volatility. With nearly two-thirds of India’s LNG imports transiting Hormuz, a fixed subsea link would anchor supply Oman, the UAE, Qatar, and beyond to shift towards long-term, price-stable supply.

Taken with the UAE energy pact, the pipeline sends the message that the GCC is becoming the infrastructure layer through which India secures energy and absorbs shocks.

The pump finally moves

Meanwhile, at home, India’s state-run refiners hiked gasoline and diesel prices by over 3% today — the first move in four years that essentially sheds its long-standing policy of shielding consumers from global oil volatility, Bloomberg reports.

The rates are highest since May 2022 bringing diesel to INR 90.6 (USD 1.09) per liter and petrol to INR 97.7 (USD 1.1). This comes on the back of crude hovering above USD 106 / bbl amid the war. With inflation risks and the INR touching record lows, New Delhi is gradually shifting the burden back to consumers while prepping the ground for further increases.

Still, only partial: The increase remains modest relative to a near 50% rise in global crude prices, leaving state-run refiners — Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum — still absorbing losses estimated at around INR 10 bn (USD 104 mn) daily. A gap of INR 15-20 (USD 0.18-0.24) per liter persists, making the rate only incremental.

The homegrown substitution play

The government approved a INR 375 bn (USD 3.9 bn) scheme to scale up coal gasification, according to a press release, in a clear directive to reduce dependence on imported fuels. The federal cabinet-cleared program will convert domestic coal into synthetic gas for power, fertilizer, and petrochemical use — directly substituting imports of LNG, urea and methanol. The plant aims to gasify 75 mn tonnes of coal annually, backed by state support covering up to 20% of plant costs.

Why it matters for the corridor: Every unit of gas produced domestically is one less cargo India needs to source from the Gulf. Lower import dependence could temper long-term demand from India for Gulf gas, even as short-term linkages deepen across LPG and the proposed Oman pipeline. With LNG imports exposed to the Hormuz escalations, redirecting India’s 400 bn tonne coal reserves into industrial feedstock is the long-horizon hedge. The result is that India is simultaneously securing the corridor while reducing its exposure to it.

An Egyptian fertilizer node?

India is looking to establish a permanent fertilizer production base across the MENA corridor — ending its reliance on volatile fertilizer spot markets by locking in an industrial base in Egypt. Indian companies are carrying out studies to build phosphate plants in Ain Sokhna and New Valley, Zawya reports, citing statements made to Arab press.

Where things currently stand: The projects are still in their approvals phase, with the firms in talks with the General Authority For Investments.

Why this matters

India imports over half its rock phosphate needs, largely from Egypt and Jordan. Locating production inside Egypt — one of the world’s top phosphate producers — reduces supply chain risk and anchors long-term access.

The ongoing regional war has driven urea prices for Indian buyers up more than 40% to over USD 700 per ton, turning fertilizer into a national security issue. Indian firms have already contracted 350k tons from local producers. Egypt’s 980 mn-ton Abu Tartour phosphate reserves and the EGP 16 bn Ain Sokhna fertilizer complex make the country an attractive option for new investments.

A corridor-wide fertilizer play

The success of the Oman India Fertilizer Company sets a GCC-wide precedent, with the long-term supply agreement keeping India’s fertilizer imports steady despite regional shocks — exactly the kind of architecture every other Gulf supplier relationship now needs.

India is already exploring a fertilizer framework with Saudi Arabia to tighten cooperation on fertilizer and phosphate supply. Together, these developments add up: India’s fertilizer security is no longer about procurement but rather a corridor project, spanning sourcing, storage and now production across MENA.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The aviation reshuffle

The Iran war and the ensuing fuel shock are jolting India’s international aviation model. Air India is pulling back from long-haul routes; foreign carriers — European, Asian, and Gulf alike — are moving fast to fill the gap; and the country’s dependence on foreign hubs for westbound traffic is deepening rather than easing.

By the numbers: Foreign airlines’ share of scheduled international flights from India rose to 58.4% between March-May from 51.2% a year earlier, while Air India scheduled 6.4k international flights from India, down 17.5% y-o-y, Reuters reports. Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have long acted as one-stop connectors for Indian passengers flying to Europe, North America, and Africa — and despite the war, that model is stressed rather than broken.

Where the share is moving

European and Asian networks are seeing the first gains. Swiss Air scheduled 247 flights from India in March-May, up 39% y-o-y, while KLM scheduled 294 flights, up 19.5%. Cathay Pacific scheduled 588 India-Hong Kong flights, up 19%, as some India-origin passengers who earlier connected through the Middle East shifted to Hong Kong for US travel. Emirates kept its India-origin schedule steady at 2.2k flights.

The shock is not India-specific. Bloomberg’s analysis of Flightradar24 data showed daily international widebody flight volumes across 21 major airlines fell to around 2.1k flights a day after the war began, from about 2.7k before the conflict. Middle East carriers lost 56% of their Asia operations, or more than 5k flights, while Western airlines added 677 flights to Asia and captured around 12% of the lost capacity, aviation expert Ajay Awtaney tells EnterpriseAM.

But the rerouting doesn’t solve India’s aviation problem. “Instead of going through Dubai or Doha, some passengers may go through Frankfurt, London, Paris or Amsterdam,” Awtaney says. “So, from a passenger point of view, yes, there may be options. But from an Indian airline point of view, the traffic is still not necessarily staying with Indian carriers.”

Why Air India is bearing the brunt

The shift follows Air India’s plan to cut about 100 international flights a day for three months from June. Air India’s scheduled India-US flights fell 77.4% y-o-y in March-May, while Europe flights declined 5.1%. Some US routes now take nearly five hours longer due to airspace restrictions, hurting non-stop long-haul economics. The airline has suspended Delhi-Chicago and reduced several US services for June-August, after earlier stopping Delhi-Washington and Bengaluru and Mumbai-San Francisco routes.

Fuel is the sharper margin risk: Jet fuel rose to USD 162.89 / bbl in the week ending 8 May from USD 99.40 / bbl at end-February. Airlines either pass higher costs through fares — hitting demand — or absorb them and take the hit on margins. “It becomes a very difficult situation, especially when the same flight is also taking longer because of rerouting,” Awatney said, citing a recent Delhi-Germany flight that took 12 hours instead of nine after the aircraft had to fly out through Gujarat and skirt the Middle East. ICRA estimates that Indian aviation could post a net loss of INR 170-180 bn in FY 2026, with fuel accounting for 30-40% of airline operating expenses and 35-50% of operating costs linked to the USD.

India’s bigger constraint is fleet depth. Awtaney said India has about 50 or fewer widebody aircraft capable of flying long-haul routes, while Middle East hub carriers such as Emirates operate hundreds of long-haul aircraft built around transfer traffic. “There is not enough capacity built in India yet to discourage people from traveling via the Middle East. So, that dependence will continue for a few more years,” he said.

India’s airport strategy is moving in the right direction — Delhi and Mumbai are being positioned as stronger hubs, and Air India and IndiGo have more aircraft on order. But a hub needs more than terminal capacity: it needs widebody aircraft, coordinated flight banks, transfer infrastructure, bilateral rights, interline depth and enough long-haul routes to retain traffic that currently flows through Gulf and European hubs.

The Gulf still holds

The Gulf remains central to India’s outbound market despite the near-term shift to European and Asian alternatives. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways have added Indian capacity over the past 18 months, while Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi remain key one-stop hubs for Indian passengers traveling West. Air India’s first round of cuts has spared the Gulf; the next test is whether Indian carriers can hold that corridor capacity if fuel costs stay elevated.

“I would still look at this as a short-term disruption rather than a permanent shift,” Awtaney says. “These carriers have not given up on being global hubs. Once the situation stabilises, they will come back strongly, and they will probably use pricing also to bring traffic back through Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi.”

Why it matters: The fuel shock is redistributing India-origin international traffic, not just cutting Air India’s schedule. If Indian carriers pull back while European, Asian and Gulf carriers hold or add capacity, India’s outbound growth stays tied to foreign hubs. The corridor test is whether the next round of cuts stays limited to long-haul routes or starts hitting Gulf and onward-connectivity capacity Indian carriers have spent two years building.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Akash Ambani takes charge at Jio ahead of its IPO

Akash Ambani, son of Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani, has been appointed managing director of IPO-bound Jio Platforms for five years, effective last month, Fortune India reports, citing a regulatory filing. Ambani, who has chaired Reliance Jio Infocomm — the telecom operator arm of Jio Platforms — since June 2022, takes charge as the digital services arm prepares to file draft IPO papers with the Securities and Exchange Board of India by the end of May or in June.

The corridor link: Jio counts Gulf sovereign wealth funds among its investors, including the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) and Mubadala, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). The sovereign wealth funds had been set to sell a portion of their shares before the company scrapped plans for an offer-for-sale and settled on a fresh 2.5% share issue. The firm is now expected to be valued at around USD 4.5 bn, according to Reuters.

Crowding in

Latest contractor with eyes on the GCC: Nisus Finance’s NCCCL

Another Indian entrant in the UAE’s construction sector: Nisus Finance is expanding into the UAE through its subsidiary New Consolidated Construction Company Limited (NCCCL), which it acquired last year with the aim of expanding the company across the GCC and India. The UAE operation will serve as a wider GCC hub for construction, infrastructure, and real estate activities, with a phased expansion strategy focused on partnerships and cross-border projects.

NCCCL joins a growing list of Indian developers and contractors deepening their UAE footprints. State-owned NBCC was among the latest entrants, joining firms including Sunteck Realty, Casagrand, Shapoorji Pallonji, and Mantra Properties in expanding into the UAE market.

The pull factor: Construction and transport projects under execution across the GCC are approaching USD 951 bn, while the broader regional pipeline now exceeds USD 2 tn, driven largely by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Inox Clean Energy makes US debut

Noida-based Inox Clean Energy, has marked its US entry with a USD 750 mn acquisition of North Carolina-based Boviet Solar Technology, an integrated renewable platform, according to a statement. The transaction gives Inox access to an operational 3 GW solar module facility and a binding agreement to acquire another 3 GW of solar cell manufacturing capacity by December this year.

Why it matters: Inox stands to benefit from domestic manufacturing incentives in the US and mitigate tariff risks through localized production. The expansion comes on the back of rising demand from data centers, electrification and industrial growth. This marked the company’s tenth acquisition in just nine months as it eyes 11 GW of manufacturing capacity and 10 GW of operating power capacity by FY 2028.

RSA spins out cross-border-focused startup targeting India-GCC logistics

Dubai-headquartered logistics group RSA Global has spun out a corridor-focused logistics arm, RSA Cross-Border, first on India-to-GCC, India-to-UK and India-to-Europe routes, according to a press release. The spun-out arm raised USD 1.5 mn in seed funding fully backed by MENA-focused early-stage fund 21 Ventures.

Where the funds are going: With operations in India and based out of Dubai, it will use the funding over the next 18 months to expand its AI platform, scale India capacity and deepen its UK, Europe and GCC corridor networks.

What’s next: The company says it has grown 10% week-on-week for the past 12 months and plans a follow-on round in late 2026. The corridor test is whether Dubai-based logistics platforms can help smaller Indian exporters move into GCC and European consumer markets without building their own cross-border networks.

L&T lands Middle East grid orders

India-based engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has secured multiple Middle East power transmission orders, adding to its portfolio in a region that already makes up 40% of its total order book, according to a company statement.

The turnkey contracts cover one 380 kV substation and two 132 kV substations for undisclosed clients. L&T classified the contracts as “significant” — meaning they’re valued at between INR 10-25 bn (USD 104.2-260.7 mn) — though it did not disclose the contract value.

Why it matters:The orders reinforce the India-GCC infrastructure corridor at a time when Gulf grids are expanding to support large load centers, industrial demand, and energy-transition projects.

What Cerebras’ IPO tells us about the 2026 AI craze

Cerebras’ IPO is the latest signal that the world is AI-obsessed. The IPO priced way above its target range of USD 150-160 — itself up from USD 115-125 initially on soaring demand — at USD 185 per share, and jumped 68% on its debut. As the largest IPO this year, raising USD 5.6 bn with an implied valuation of USD 564 bn, it’s a testament to how big of a theme AI has become across capital markets this year.

(Want to know more about Cerebras’ pitch? We dove into that, and how much of it rides on Abu Dhabi’s own AI thesis, in an earlier Planet Finance, here.)

AI stocks have soared this year. Dow Jones’ US semiconductors index, tracking chip heavyweights like Nvidia, Intel, and Qualcomm, is up more than 42% YTD. Over in Asia, South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi has risen more than 80% this year, while Taiwan’s Taiex has notched fresh records owing to the AI rally.

There’s a contradiction when it comes to how investors view AI, which is likely why there’s also been quite a bit of volatility for AI stocks. As JPMorgan puts it in its latest mid-year outlook (pdf), there’s a discrepancy between private market investors’ demand for equity stakes in AI companies and the public markets’ view on AI firms’ debt rush and concerns that their investments might not pay off.

But JPMorgan thinks AI will be a “driver of durable returns” in the medium term, citing several positive signals for the sector, including the fact that AI will support productivity gains and, in turn, valuations.

More evidence that this will be the year of AI for capital markets: At least one more blockbuster AI IPO is expected, with Elon Musk’s venture SpaceX — which plans to put data centers in space — expected to come to market with what’s looking to be the largest IPO in history. Analysts also assign a 50/50 chance of Anthropic going public this year, and a 1-in-3 chance for an OpenAI IPO.

What to watch: How those major AI firms will trade over time, and whether “public markets validate private market valuations, and even build on them,” JPMorgan says. That “would likely bolster confidence in AI infrastructure spending,” it adds.

Sensex	75,352	-0.06% (YTD: -11.5%)
NIFTY 50	23,694	+0.02% (YTD: -9.3%)
ADX	9,643	-0.6% (YTD: -3.5%)
DFM	5,707	-0.4% (YTD: -5.6%)
Tadawul	10,995	-0.2% (YTD: +4.8%)
EGX30	53,154	-0.4% (YTD: +27.1%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,485	-0.9% (YTD: -2.2%)
QSE	10,493	+0.2% (YTD: -2.5%)
S&P 500	7,501	+0.7% (YTD: +9.5%)
FTSE 100	10,231	-1.3% (YTD: +3.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,836	-1.6% (YTD: +0.7%)
Brent crude	USD 109	+3.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.94	+1.7%
Gold	USD 4,557	-2.7%
BTC	USD 80,477	+1.1%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

MAY

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Al-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday) Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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India leans on MENA for Hormuz workarounds, weighs INR support

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Manipal to join the league of India’s biggest healthcare listings