THIS AFTERNOON: Air India seeks funding after USD 2.4 bn loss; urea prices double

A very good afternoon and happy FRIDAY to you all. We’re feeling cheery because today is very much a good news type of day.

Iran and the US seem likely to extend the ceasefire set to expire next Wednesday, with talks pointing to an extension that gives both sides time to iron out details for a comprehensive peace agreement. This coincides with Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon which came into force at midnight local time.

While that could take months — maybe up to six, sources in the know say — it at least avoids a return to conflict and offers a glimmer of hope that an interim agreement over the Strait of Hormuz could come soon.

Global markets are cheering the news and feeling very optimistic — a bit too optimistic, policymakers say, as we write in today’s Planet Finance below.

The big story today: India’s merchandise trade with the Middle East declined by over 50% in March, highlighting the impact of the war on the MENA-India corridor. The country’s oil imports dipped by 36%, as did trade with the UAE, one of its largest import sources.

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AVIATION — Air India seeks bailout from investors: India’s second-largest carrier Air India, is reaching out to its shareholders for a financial lifeline after recording a staggering INR 220 bn (USD 2.4 bn) annual loss in FY 2026 (ending 31 March), Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources.

Why it matters: With 16% of its capacity tied to the Middle East, the airline is bleeding money on longer, more expensive flight paths to avoid hostile routes. After a decade of losses, Air India’s path to operational break-even — originally targeted for this year — is pushed to 2027 or beyond.

What went wrong: The airline’s loss gap widened significantly beyond earlier internal estimates of USD 1.6 bn. This record deficit was fueled by a series of major setbacks, including the fatal crash of an Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner in Ahmedabad in June 2025, the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian carriers, and the ongoing fallout from the Middle East conflict.

What we know: The carrier’s parent Tata Group and minority investor Singapore Airlines — with a 25.1% stake — are discussing a capital injection, though the final size remains uncertain. The funding needs are exceeding what current investors are willing to commit, which could push the airline to seek alternative financing, the outlet added.

The bottom line: Despite rolling out ambitious fleet expansion plans, the legacy carrier has consistently struggled to improve service standards and lift yields to desired profitability levels.

TRADE — Fertilizer prices doubled? Global manufacturers are selling urea to Indian buyers at USD 1k per ton — nearly double the levels seen before the war, Reuters reports.

What we know: State-run buyer Indian Potash sought 2.5 mn tons of urea through global tenders, with a majority of supplier offers ranging between USD 1-1.1k per ton, while the lowest bid stood at USD 935 per ton for delivery to ports on the western coast.

Why it matters:India — the world’s largest buyer of urea — imports around 10 mtpa from Oman, Qatar, the UAE, Russia, and China. If the Indian buyers purchase the fertilizer at USD 1k per ton, the global spot market prices will remain elevated, pinching price-sensitive buyers in MENA and Asia. Moreover, persistently elevated costs will add to India’s subsidy burden, given that fertilizer prices for farmers are state-supported, resulting in a wider fiscal and current account deficit in the country.

COMMODITIES — The Multi Commodity Exchange of India will add 100g gold bars produced by UAE Good Delivery-accredited refineries to its list, state news agency Wam reports. The inclusion brings a UAE-origin certification system into India’s exchange-linked commodities market, with the UAE’s Good Delivery framework enhancing transparency and overall standards in the gold supply chain.

Why it matters:The move comes amid expanding bullion trade between the two countries following the India-UAE CEPA. Bilateral gold trade rose to USD 17 bn in 2025 from USD 3 bn in 2022. The change widens the pool of gold eligible for India’s exchange system and reflects the closer integration of India’s bullion market with refining and trading hubs in the Gulf.

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The big story abroad

The good news grabbing the attention of most business press this morning is the likelihood of an agreement between the US and Iran, and news of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. US President Donald Trump said things are “looking very good” for the countries to reach an agreement, and that talks are expected to resume soon. The last round of talks, which took place last weekend, had been inconclusive, with differences emerging over Iran’s nuclear program.

ALSO- Netflix’s earnings and the resignation of co-founder and chairman Reed Hastings are getting plenty of play. The streaming provider’s forecast for earnings growth fell short of analyst expectations, sending its shares tumbling 9% in after-hours trading.

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