India taps Iranian oil and gas

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India’s manufacturing growth slows to four-year low amid war drag

Good afternoon, readers. We are kicking off the week with the latest developments in India-linked energy markets, as domestic refiners secure oil and LPG supplies from Iran under a temporary US sanctions waiver. Meanwhile, New Delhi’s diplomatic push continues to bear fruit in the Strait of Hormuz, with more India-bound LPG tankers crossing the chokepoint to help ease domestic fuel shortages.

Plus: Emirates NBD is inching closer to sealing its acquisition of RBL Bank, and Lohum is building a cross-border battery recycling pipeline between Sharjah and India to secure critical minerals. Let’s dive right in.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — India’s manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in nearly four years last month, as the war disrupted supply chains, dented demand, and pushed up input costs, according to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (pdf), compiled by S&P Global. The index fell to 53.9 from 56.9 in February, broadly in line with estimates.

Demand weakens, exports hold: New orders and output grew at their weakest rate in close to four years, signaling softer domestic demand. “Disruptions linked to the conflict […] are weighing on Indian manufacturers,” HSBC Chief India Economist Pranjul Bhandari said. However, export orders rose to a six-month high, offering some support.

Costs rise, outlook steady: Despite the war driving input costs — steel, aluminum, and fuel — to their highest levels since 2022, Indian factories are not passing these costs onto buyers, with selling prices rising at their slowest pace in two years. Employment growth hit a seven-month high, while business optimism strengthened expectations of agricultural demand and capacity expansion.

POLICY — India has scrapped customs duties on 40 petrochemical products to keep supplies stable and contain input costs amid the Middle East conflict, according to a press release. The exemption (pdf), notified by the Finance Ministry and effective 2 April, reduces import duty on 40 products to zero until 30 June.

What’s covered: The list includes a mix of base chemicals and downstream polymers used across manufacturing chains, along with engineering plastics. The government also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess on ammonium nitrate imports over the same period.

Why it matters: India’s petrochemical supply chain is closely linked to the Gulf, which accounts for over 75% of methanol imports and a significant share of other feedstock. The region also supplies about 30% of India’s urea imports and roughly 50% of LNG used in fertilizer and chemical production. With the Middle East conflict pushing up input prices and logistics costs, the duty waiver helps offset cost pressures and support supply continuity.

AUTOMOTIVE — India’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki may raise vehicle prices as rising global commodity costs linked to the war push up production expenses, Reuters reports. The company said higher prices of fuel and industrial inputs are adding to production costs, which may need to be passed through to customers. A decision on price revisions is expected shortly, the company added without revealing a definite timeline. Maruti has not reported supply disruptions so far, but said risks could emerge if the conflict continues.

Industry body Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations also said the auto supply chain is showing signs of strain, with more than half of dealers reporting supply or dispatch disruptions linked to the conflict. Rising oil and gas prices are also pushing up fuel, logistics, and input costs.

Why it matters:The Middle East accounts for about 12.5% of Maruti’s export volumes, with shipment timelines to the region expected to face delays. Hyundai Motor India reported a 10% drop in overseas shipments last month, with roughly 40% of its exports linked to the Middle East.

PHARMA — Pharma exporters in India may lose up to USD 750 mn if the Iran war continues through April, up from earlier estimates of USD 150-200 mn, as higher freight, ins., and input costs affect shipments, Business Standard reports. Supply chains are likely to remain affected for an extended period, with longer transit times and higher logistics costs adding pressure on exporters, industry executives told the daily.

Why it matters:The MENA region accounted for USD 1.75 bn — or about 5.7% — of India’s USD 30.38 bn in pharma exports in FY 2024/25, with key markets including the UAE, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia leaving exporters exposed to margin pressure as costs rise.

DIPLOMACY — India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held calls with counterparts in Iran, Qatar, and the UAE to discuss the ongoing war, the minister said on X (here, here, and here), as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz sharpen concerns over energy flows and shipping routes.

Why it matters: Jaishankar discussed regional and global developments as well as bilateral ties with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The discussions follow new US warnings to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz — there is significant concern that further disruptions to commercial shipping or energy infrastructure could occur, particularly as Washington considers strikes on Iranian power plants, which might provoke retaliatory attacks on Gulf energy facilities.

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Data point

INR 384.2 (USD 4.2 bn) — that was the value of India’s defense exports in FY 2025/26, marking a 62.6% y-o-y increase and an all-time high, the Defense Ministry said in a press release. Public-sector defense companies accounted for 54.84% of exports, while private firms contributed 45.16% of sales.

IN CONTEXT- India has ramped up its domestic defense manufacturing to reduce its dependence on external sources while also expanding exports. The UAE is among the 40 nations purchasing small arms, ammunition, and electronic warfare systems from India.

The big story abroad

Pakistan has proposed a two-tier ceasefire framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran, Reuters reports. The plan outlines an immediate 45-day ceasefire that would eventually pave the way for a comprehensive agreement to permanently end the war, a framework first reported by Axios on Sunday. Islamabad circulated the proposal to Washington and Tehran overnight and is awaiting a response from the warring parties.

REMEMBER- US President Donald Trump has once again threatened to destroy Iran’s power infrastructure. Should Tehran keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, Trump has vowed to target civilian infrastructure — power plants and bridges — in a post on TruthSocial, leading some critics to point out that this would constitute a war crime.

Oil jumped following the president’s ultimatum. Brent futures rose 1.6% to USD 110.74 a barrel earlier today, while US West Texas Intermediate futures gained 0.6% to trade at USD 112.25.

Market watch

Indian markets fell on Monday as crude prices hit USD 110 / bbl, marking the sixth straight week of losses as geopolitical turmoil outweighed strong corporate earnings, Reuters reports. The Nifty 50 declined 0.47%, while the Sensex dropped 0.59% with most sectoral indices in the red. Rising crude prices and renewed fears of escalation in the US-Israel-Iran war have tempered market sentiment.

MEANWHILE- The INR posted a sharp rebound, rising 0.3% to 92.8 / USD after a 1.8% surge last week — its biggest rally since 2013. This came after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aggressively capped banks’ net open positions at USD 100 mn to curb currency speculation. The INR had been under sustained pressure amid rising oil prices and foreign investor sell-off. The RBI intervention has depleted India’s reserves by USD 40 bn in recent weeks.

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Iranian barrels + LPG reach India

Indian refiners have secured oil and gas supplies from Iran with no payment hurdles, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry said on X — the first such imports since 2019, after US-imposed sanctions had curbed flows. The government did not reveal the quantity purchased nor specify the names of the companies importing from Iran.

Sanctions window opens: The flows come on the back of a temporary US waiver allowing Iranian oil already in transit to be traded, in a bid to ease global supply shortages triggered by the war.

India has also imported 44k tonnes of Iranian LPG on a sanctioned vessel currently being discharged at Mangalore port along the west coast, as part of broader efforts to stabilize fuel availability amid panic and supply shortages back home.

What we know: The tanker Aurora, initially destined for China, has docked at Mangalore port. Its cargo will be split between Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation. India’s attempts to tap Iranian crude faced limited accessible supply and execution bottlenecks, with large volumes tied up in Chinese storage and supply chains.

Why it matters: As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India has quickly moved to diversify sourcing — it has secured crude requirements for the coming months, per the ministry, drawing from over 40 supplier nations to manage volatility and reduce risk. However, the docking of sanctioned vessels on Indian ports may test the limits of the US’ temporary waiver. For India, the country’s energy security appears to outweigh the risks.

Reduced fuel pricing kicks in

State-run oil companies are paying refineries reduced rates for petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel to offset losses from frozen retail prices, Hindu Businessline reports. Markdowns of up to INR 60 per liter (USD 0.65) have been applied to refinery transfer prices.

Pressure from rising crude: With global oil prices above USD 100 / bbl, refiners including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation are absorbing significant losses. By adjusting transfer pricing, the government is pushing the financial strain upstream to shield consumers and fuel retailers from elevated crude costs.

Why it matters: The move redistributes losses across the value chain but risks distorting market-linked pricing, especially for private refiners, as India balances inflation control with energy sector stability.

More India-bound LPG tankers cross Hormuz

More India-flagged vessels cross Hormuz: Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers Green Asha and Green Sanvi have crossed through the Strait of Hormuz — bringing the tally of Indian-flagged fuel carriers to have crossed the chokepoint since the war broke out to eight, Reuters reports, citing ship-tracking data.

The details: The two LPG vessels, headed to India, are currently in the eastern stretch of the strait, the newswire reports, citing LSEG and Kpler data. Green Asha, carrying around 15k tonnes, passed the strait on Sunday after docking at the UAE’s Al Rams port on 30 March, The Hindu reports. Green Sanvi is estimated to be carrying about 44k tonnes and crossed the waterway on Saturday. A third vessel with 20k tonnes of LPG — the Jag Vikram — remains stranded west of Hormuz, awaiting transit clearance.

Diplomacy played a key role: This follows high-level diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Tehran. Six other vessels — the Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, Jag Vasant, BW Elm, and BW Tyr — have already completed similar voyages and reached India. However, 17 India-flagged ships with 460 Indian nationals onboard remain stranded in Gulf waters, according to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry.

Why it matters: India, the world’s second-largest LPG importer, is managing a sharp supply squeeze, with the government curbing industrial consumption to prioritize household demand. The country consumed about 33.15 mn tonnes of LPG last year, with imports meeting roughly 60% of demand — nearly 90% of which comes from the Middle East.

One step closer to Emirates NBD’s acquisition of RBL Bank

War has not disrupted the India-UAE investment corridor, with Emirates NBD moving full steam ahead with its planned USD 3 bn acquisition of a 60% stake in Mumbai-based private sector lender RBL Bank, the Economic Times reports, citing people it says are in the know. The bid reportedly secured approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) a week after the Central Bank of the UAE signed off on the transaction.

The RBI approved Emirates NBD’s acquisition of up to 74% of RBL, Reuters reports, citing a statement from RBL. Voting rights, however, will be capped at 26%.

What’s next? The acquisition is reportedly on track for approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the country’s capital markets watchdog, with a mandatory open offer likely as early as this week.

BACKGROUND- The takeover ran into regulatory friction earlier this year, triggering change-of-control reviews across India’s capital markets stack. The transaction — structured via a preferential equity issue of roughly INR 268.5 bn — also activates a mandatory open offer for up to an additional 26% at INR 280 per share. Emirates NBD shareholders signed off in February on folding its three-branch India network (Mumbai, Gurugram, and Chennai) into RBL.

REMEMBER- If the acquisition goes through, it will see Emirates NBD become the first foreign lender to take majority control of a profitable listed Indian bank.

Lohum sets up Sharjah hub to feed India’s battery refining

Lohum links Gulf waste to India refining: India-based battery recycling and materials company Lohum is building a lithium-ion battery processing facility in Sharjah, designed to channel battery waste from the Middle East and Africa into its refining operations in India to feedstock demand for critical minerals across several industries, according to a company statement.

The details: The facility, developed in partnership with UAE-based waste management firm Beeah and the Emirati Energy and Infrastructure Ministry, will be rolled out in phases, initially focusing on processing lithium-ion batteries into black mass — an intermediate material containing lithium, nickel and cobalt — which will then be shipped to India for further refining. The project is expected to process around 1.5k tonnes of batteries per year from 2026, with capacity planned to double within three years.

Lohum has existing refining infrastructure in India, including a battery-grade lithium refinery with around 1 mtpa capacity, alongside facilities processing lithium, cobalt, and nickel, positioning the country as its primary downstream processing base.

The funnel mode

The UAE facility is being positioned as a regional aggregation and processing hub, with Lohum expecting early feedstock to come from EV and non-EV lithium-ion batteries. “Over time, as volumes scale and infrastructure deepens, it can evolve into a broader international sourcing and processing hub,” Sachin Maheshwari, chief corporate development officer at Lohum, tells EnterpriseAM.

Early feedstock: With EV penetration still low across the region, early volumes are expected to come largely from electronics, industrial systems, and energy storage batteries, Maheshwari said. This mirrors broader global trends, where recycling feedstock remains dominated by consumer electronics and industrial batteries, with end-of-life EV battery volumes expected to scale meaningfully only in the 2030s, according to the International Energy Agency.

The India anchor

Import dependence: The UAE project comes as India remains almost entirely dependent on imports for key battery minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. India’s lithium-ion battery demand is projected to increase from around 10.8 GWh in 2022 to over 160 GWh by 2030 as the country scales its electric mobility and energy storage, implying a sharp rise in material requirements.

Secondary supply: Against this backdrop, companies like Lohum are building recycling and refining capacity to create a secondary supply stream alongside mining-linked imports. “While recycling improves sustainability and enhances domestic recovery of lithium, nickel, and cobalt, current and near-term demand cannot be met by recycled material alone. Recycling strengthens resilience and reduces import dependence over time,” Maheshwari said.

Why the UAE

“The UAE is strategically attractive due to its strong logistics connectivity across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe and financial ecosystem and infrastructure that support industrial growth,” Maheshwari said. Looking ahead, Lohum plans to expand the Sharjah facility to include downstream processing and supply materials directly into regional battery and energy storage value chains.

Vikas Sardana named new MD of Dubai metro operator

Dubai metro and tram operator Keolis MHI appointed Vikas Sardana (LinkedIn) as managing director, according to a press release. Sardana, who was previously chief operating officer at the company, will oversee the implementation of the firm’s Strategy Plan 2026 rolled out in partnership with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority. He brings over two decades of experience in rail operations leadership across India and the Middle East, including a 13-year tenure at Mumbai Metro One and senior roles at Maha Mumbai Metro Operation.

Jazeera Airways expands India network with southern push

Kuwait-based carrier Jazeera Airways has added four southern Indian destinations to its network — Kozhikode, Tiruchirappalli, Mangalore, and Kannur, tapping workforce migration corridors, according to a press release. The expansion targets the Indian diaspora in Kuwait and brings the airline’s network to 12 Indian cities with 49 weekly flights. Jazeera has carried over 11k Indian passengers since 20 March, with over 1k flights and 250k seats planned through April, as wartime disruptions affect services along UAE routes, according to the press release.

Tokenization could amplify market risks, IMF says

The global push to put traditional finance on the blockchain just got a flashing warning light from none other than the International Monetary Fund, per a new report (pdf).

What’s happening? Big players like the New York Stock Exchange are already testing infrastructure to trade tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds around the clock. Nasdaq is pushing the US SEC to allow tokenized stock trading, and SEC Chair Paul Atkins appears supportive.

BUT- The IMF report warns that this isn't just a marginal tech upgrade. “Tokenization constitutes a structural reallocation of trust within the financial system,” the author argues.

Why it matters

The big selling point of tokenization is instant, constant settlement — what the industry calls “atomic settlement.”

The problem? The traditional financial system relies on delays. The lag time gives institutions a chance to net their claims and gives central banks a window to step in before a market hiccup turns into a full-blown meltdown. If trades settle instantly by design, we lose that temporal buffer.

This rewiring of market infrastructure creates several major systemic headaches:

Liquidity strains: Because end-of-day netting is eliminated, institutions must maintain liquidity continuously, sharply increasing intraday liquidity needs;
Algorithmic fire sales: As the IMF notes, “automated margin calls triggered by price movements can force rapid asset sales, reinforcing procyclical dynamics;”
Outdated backstops: Central bank emergency lending facilities currently operate on standard business hours and are insufficient in a 24/7 tokenized environment;
Private money risks: Privately issued stablecoins are increasingly used to settle these digital trades. However, the IMF warns that today's stablecoins resemble money market funds and “could be vulnerable to confidence-driven runs in adverse conditions.”

For emerging and developing economies in the region, this structural shift is especially risky. Frictionless digital finance could lead to wild swings in capital flows and the erosion of monetary sovereignty. Money could flood out of a developing economy during a panic before policymakers can react. The report explicitly warns that this continuous settlement could accelerate outflows during stress episodes, “limiting the effectiveness of traditional capital flow management measures.”

What comes next

The IMF is telling global regulators they need to adapt their crisis playbooks immediately. To avoid a fragmented market or a system dominated by private stablecoins prone to bank runs, governments need to provide the underlying digital money.

That likely means a faster rollout of wholesale central bank digital currencies, to anchor the system in safe public money.

“Tokenization does not diminish the role of the public sector, but it reshapes it,” the report said, warning that “the window for shaping the architecture of the tokenized financial system is open, but it will not remain so indefinitely.”

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets were up in early trading this morning, as investors seemingly brushed off US President Donald Trump’s latest threats to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if it doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz. Japan’s Nikkei was up over 1.6% and South Korea’s Kospi was looking at gains of 2.2%. Despite the early rally, it’s anyone’s guess how the week will unfold with war developments and upcoming data releases potentially pushing markets in either direction.

Sensex	73,941	+0.8% (YTD: -13.9%)
NIFTY 50	22,917	+0.9% (YTD: -13.2%)
ADX	9,635	+0.3% (YTD: -3.9%)
DFM	5,476	-0.1% (YTD: -9.2%)
Tadawul	11,256	-0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)
EGX30	47,607	+0.7% (YTD: +13.8%)
Boursa Kuwait	7,822	+1.09% (YTD: -6.3%)
QSE	10,326	+1.6% (YTD: -5.5%)
S&P 500	6,582	+0.1% (YTD: -3.8%)
FTSE 100	10,436	+0.6% (YTD: +5.08%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,692	-0.7% (YTD: -1.7%)
Brent crude	USD 107	-1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.82	+0.9%
Gold	USD 4,706	+0.6%
BTC	USD 69,846	+4.2%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

APRIL

6-8 April (Monday-Wednesday): Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

7-10 April (Tuesday-Friday), India Rubber Expo, ITPO, Pragati Maidan, Delhi.

15-17 April (Wednesday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

23-25 April (Thursday-Saturday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi is expected to be held between July-August. Dates yet to be announced;
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle. Dates yet to be announced;
India Mobile Congress, New Delhi will likely be held in October. Dates yet to be announced.

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