Good afternoon, readers. We are starting the week with a light issue covering updates across the energy, banking, and aviation sectors, with UAE-based companies grabbing headlines.

Emirates NBD is reportedly making a play for another bank takeover in India. This time, the Dubai-based lender is eyeing Mumbai-based IDBI Bank, which has some 60% of its stake on offer. Canada’s Fairfax will be the primary rival to Emirates NBD’s bid.

Plus: Emirates Airlines is pitching for an increase in bilateral seat quota limits, which have remained frozen for years amid Indian regulators’ protectionist policy favoring domestic carriers.

We also have an exclusive chat with the Dubai director of Chennai-based Casagrand, who walks us through the realty firm’s expansion plans for the UAE.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

AVIATION — Dubai-based carrier Emirates is seeking an expansion of bilateral seat limits between India and the UAE to cater to growing demand along the India-Gulf routes. Emirates is pinning its hopes on government-to-government talks, as demand along the routes runs well ahead of available seats, the Economic Times reports, citing the airline’s CCO Adnan Kazim.

Why it matters: Under the existing bilateral framework, weekly seat entitlements on the India-Dubai market are capped at 65k seats per side, while the India-Abu Dhabi market is capped at 55k seats per week since 2015. Demand on the India-Dubai route is running at close to 200k seats a week — more than 2.5 times the current entitlement.

Regulatory hurdle: India has maintained a protectionist stance on bilateral seat limits in a bid to allow domestic private airlines to tap into international aviation routes. This has effectively edged out competitors such as Emirates, whose expansion remains curtailed by the bilateral seat limits.

Emirates currently operates 167 weekly flights to India and is seeking additional traffic rights as part of the ongoing India-UAE air services negotiations. India is a priority feeder market for its Dubai hub, which connects onward traffic across the Middle East, Europe, and Africa.

OIL WATCH — India’s key state-run refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), bought about 2 mn bbl of UAE-produced Upper Zakum crude through commodities trader Mercuria as part of a wider 6 mn bbl crude purchase for April delivery from West Africa and the Middle East, the Economic Times reports.

The purchases, made through tenders issued last week, also include Angolan Pazflor and Nigerian Agbami cargoes sold from Angola and Nigeria.

Venezuela in parallel: The IOC and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation have together bought 2 mn bbl of Venezuelan Merey crude from Trafigura for delivery in the second half of April.

Why it matters: The buying points to continued spot demand by Indian refiners for MENA crude even as refiners diversify sources and avoid Russian barrels for near-term delivery windows.

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Data point

INR 1.01 tn (USD 12.15 bn) — That’s the value of India’s automobile exports in 2025, surpassing USD 12 bn for the first time, led by higher passenger-vehicle and two-wheeler shipments, according to Commerce Ministry data.

Export hotspot: South Africa and Saudi Arabia were the top destination markets for India-built cars and sport-utility vehicles at INR 113.2 bn (USD 1.25 bn) and INR 107.8 bn (USD 1.19 bn), while shipments of passenger vehicles shipments to the UAE stood at INR 42.6 bn (USD 471 mn), underscoring the Gulf’s role as a steady export market for India’s automakers.

The big story abroad

Global headlines are focused on Asian markets’ broad rally, riding the wave of incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in snap elections yesterday. In anticipation of Takaichi’s reflationary agenda — more spending and tax cuts — markets responded bullishly, sending Japan’s Nikkei climbing 4.2% to an all-time high.

Gold rebounded on the news: Partially boosted by Takaichi’s victory, gold rose above USD 5kper ounce, jumping as much as 1.7% in early trading and recovering half of the losses it sustained since dropping from a historic high late last month. Helping the recovery is also promising backing from the likes of Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the Chinese central bank.

The Super Bowl LX is still underway, with the Seattle Seahawks leading the game at 29 points while the New England Patriots behind at only seven points, as we press send. The Seahawks are seeking their second-ever title, while the Patriots are fighting for their seventh title.

Market watch

CAPITAL MARKETS — Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers, pumping in a net USD 897 mn into Indian equities through the first week of February, according to data from National Securities Depository Limited.

What’s changed? The shift comes amid optimism following the announcement of the India-US trade agreement, which effectively halted a month-long selling streak and stabilized the INR from its record low of 91.72, reversing January’s heavy outflows.

Why this matters: Flows were volatile, tracking policy and trade cues. Markets dipped after the Union Budget proposed a higher securities transaction tax on derivatives from 0.02% to 0.05%, but rebounded sharply after US President Donald Trump announced a cut in tariffs on Indian goods to 18%. The INR’s recovery to 90.60 significantly reduces the cost of hedging for cross-border transactions and imports.

Optimism rings: India’s external position has improved relative to Asian peers — the reduction in effective tariffs and the withdrawal of punitive duties should help restore India’s trade balance with the US after the pressures. India now compares favorably with several Asian emerging markets that still face higher effective US tariffs, the Hindu Businessline reports, citing a JM Financial report.

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