The Indian economy is projected to grow between 6.8% to 7.2% in FY 2027 (beginning 1 April, 2026), as per the Economic Survey tabled in the Indian Parliament on Thursday. The GDP for the current fiscal year (FY26) is estimated at 7.4%. The survey is the “state of the union” on macroeconomics written by the government’s chief economic adviser and published ahead of the national budget.

Why this matters: The survey indicates a shift in the government’s stance as domestic reforms and tax buoyancy are no longer sustainable to insulate the economy from a fragmented global order. Despite a manufacturing surge, the paradox of strong fundamentals with a weakening currency and capital flow volatility implies the cost of doing business remains tied to external shocks (including the steep US tariffs and an uncertain global trade environment) rather than just local demand.

World’s fourth-largest economy Despite steep US tariffs on Indian exports, the economy is expected to cross the USD 4 tn mark in FY 2026, powered by a manufacturing surge and internal reforms. We covered India’s macroeconomic Goldilocks moment at length.

Other key highlights from the survey:

  • India is on track to meet the fiscal deficit target of 4.4% of GDP for FY26.
  • The services sector remains the primary driver of growth, contributing 53.6% of GDP. India is the world’s 7th largest services exporter.
  • Manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) has expanded by 9.1% Q2, particularly highlighting 10 semiconductor fabrication projects with an investment commitment of INR 1.6 tn.

External risks persist: US tariffs of up to 50% have hit labour-intensive exports, with the timeline for an India-US trade agreement still uncertain. However, new FTAs with the EU, UK, New Zealand and Oman, alongside surging demand from Europe and Middle East are expected to cushion global headwinds.

What’s next: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget to the parliament on Sunday, with the markets open for a special trading session.

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