Good afternoon, friends, and happy FRIDAY. We close out the week with updates on India’s economy and capital market moves by UAE firms Adnic and Emirates NDB.

India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.8% to 7.2% in FY 2027, following an estimated 7.4% in the current fiscal year (FY26). This “state of the union” macroeconomic report, published ahead of the national budget, signals that domestic reforms and tax buoyancy are no longer sufficient to shield the economy from global fragmentation.

Brazil’s Petrobras has expanded its crude sourcing agreements with three Indian state refiners for increased supply through 2027, while Reliance Industries is resuming non-sanctioned supplies from Russia. These moves will impact India’s crude sourcing from the Middle East in the coming months.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

CAPITAL MARKETS — Abu Dhabi National Ins. Company (Adnic) is set to open a branch in India’s International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Gift City, Gujarat, as part of its international expansion plan, according to a press release. Adnic has already secured approval from the Central Bank of the UAE for the move, and is expecting to secure regulatory clearance on India’s side before the branch launches in late 2026. The opening will add to its existing offices in Saudi Arabia and the UK, as well as the Emirates.

The pattern: New ins. regulations in India favor international branches established within Gift City over cross-border reinsurers allowing up to 10-year tax holiday and lower capital requirements. Earlier this month, Saudi Re launched its branch in the Gift City joining 13 other international reinsurers that established offices there. Kuwait Reins. company is next in the queue while Doha Ins. Group secured approvals to open a branch in 2024.

ENERGY — Brazil’s state-run oil producer Petrobras has renewed and expanded crude supply contracts with India’s three largest state-owned refiners — Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) — agreements that represent a sales potential of up to 60 mn barrels and could exceed INR 260 bn (USD 3.1 bn), according to a company statement.

What’s happening: The renewed contracts were signed during India Energy Week and will remain in effect until March 2027. Under the agreements, IOC can lift up to 24 mn barrels under a 12-month contract, with an option to renew for another year. The contract ceilings for BPCL and HPCL were raised to 18 mn barrels each, from 6 mn previously, valid through March 2027.

Why it matters: India imports around 5 mn barrels per day of crude oil, making it one of the world’s key oil demand centres. The expanded Petrobras contracts reflect Indian refiners’ efforts to diversify crude sourcing as global supply dynamics shift and pricing volatility persists.

Gulf dominance, rising competition: While India’s crude import basket continues to be supplied in large part by Middle Eastern producers — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait — incremental volumes from non-Opec suppliers such as Brazil reflect efforts by Indian refiners to diversify sourcing. For Gulf exporters, the expanded Petrobras contracts underscore growing competition in Asia’s fastest-growing oil demand centre.

OIL WATCH — Reliance Industries, India’s largest refiner, is reportedly resuming limited imports of non-sanctioned Russian crude in February, taking approximately 150k barrels per day (bpd), Bloomberg reports.

Reliance has strategically segregated its refining operations: All Russian crude will be processed by its domestic unit, while the export-oriented Jamnagar refinery will remain clean of Russian oil. This ring-fencing is crucial for its access to Western markets.

Reliance has increased sourcing from the Middle East, West Africa, Brazil and the US, in order to offset the reduced Russian volumes while also tracking potential Venezuelan supplies pending regulatory clearance.

DEFENCE— India and Germany are set to ink a roughly USD 10 bn pact by late March to manufacture six next-gen conventional submarines with Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, Economic Times reports. The finalized intergovernmental agreement provides the umbrella for Thyssenkrupp to transfer its closely guarded propulsion technology to India — a fundamental shift in Germany’s historically rigid defense export stance.

Why it matters: The submarines will be assembled in India with extensive local manufacturing. Thyssenkrupp will leverage India’s lower labor costs to create a joint export hub for the broader Indo-Pacific region opening potential for exports to Gulf nations which have signed mutual defence manufacturing agreements with India.

Crunching the timeline: The German defence minister is expected to visit India in March for the signing. The Indian Navy is pushing to sign before 31 March specifically to exhaust current-year budgetary allocations.

Happening tomorrow

India will host the second India-Arab Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi tomorrow, with India and the UAE co-chairing the dialogue, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs. The meeting will bring together foreign ministers and senior representatives from the 22-member League of Arab States, reviving high-level dialogue with the Arab world after a gap of nearly a decade.

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Data point

400 airports, 3k aircrafts — These are the numbers India’s aviation industry will need by 2047 to support future demand, according to a joint report by KPMG and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Aviation snapshot: India is currently the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market, with 164 airports and annual air cargo throughput of about 3.7 mn tonnes. The maintenance, repair and overhaul market is projected to grow from USD 2.5 bn to USD 7 bn by 2035, with workforce demand estimated at 40k pilots and 38k maintenance engineers by 2047.

The big story abroad

All eyes are on markets this morning as a tech rout deepens on Wall Street, sending Microsoft’s shares plunging by the most since 2020, with some USD 360 bn in market value wiped out. This came amid further concerns of Microsoft’s AI spending and its exposure to OpenAI. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell as much as 2.6% on Thursday morning, before paring losses to settle 0.7% lower, while the S&P 500 was down 0.1%.

Apple’s record USD 144 bn in revenues and strong growth forecast did not help markets recover, especially after the tech giant warned that component prices are rising and could potentially hit margins, with futures down at the open.

Another day of volatility could be in the cards: US President Donald Trump is set to announce his pick for the US Federal Reserve today, Bloomberg reports. The now-four person shortlist could see one of several people appointed as chair to succeed Jerome Powell: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder; former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh; Fed Governor Christopher Waller; and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who was previously seen as a potential favorite for the job but who Trump later said he’d like to keep in his current post.

^^ Reuters has more. The newswire notes that the common denominator with the four candidates is an agreement that interest rates need to be lower than where they are now.

Also from OpenAI: The startup could be getting a USD 50 bn investment from Amazon, according to sources, and is separately said to be eyeing a public listing in 4Q of this year, Wall Street Journal reports.

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