The US has blinked on its campaign to choke off Russian crude, granting Indian refiners a 30-day waiver allowing them to buy Russian oil already stranded at sea, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X.

Why now? The temporary waiver is intended to stabilize global oil flows amid disruptions from the Middle East conflict, permits transactions involving Russian oil already in transit, to ease immediate supply pressures without delivering significant revenue to Moscow.

Why it matters: India stands exposed with crude reserves covering roughly 25 days of demand. This is a significant retreat from Washington’s stance in January, which forced Indian refiners to cut Russian buys to avoid 25% tariffs. Bessent explicitly stated that he “fully anticipates” New Delhi to now ramp up purchases of US oil. This would inadvertently reduce the share of MENA supplies in India’s crude basket.

India moves quickly to secure supplies: Indian state refiners, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery, are negotiating for prompt Russian cargoes. Around 20 mn barrels are estimated to have already been secured for March and early April deliveries.

Russia open to more sales: Moscow is prepared to supply additional crude if India seeks more volumes, said Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Around 9.5 mn barrels of Russian crude are currently on vessels near Indian waters and could reach refineries within weeks.

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