Good afternoon, readers, and happy Friday. We close out the week with headlines spanning trade, energy, and investments.

The India-UAE energy ties are unlocking new avenues as Indian firms have discovered oil in Abu Dhabi. Feasibility studies for the India-UAE undersea power transmission cable will begin soon. A new JV between Indian and Emirati firms is gearing up for battery recycling.

Over in Riyadh, Indian IT firm ITC Infotech has launched its new digital hub to expand its service offering in the region. AND: QIA and Mubadala secured minority stakes in the demerger of Reliance’s retail business.

Watch this space

TRADE — New data suggests India is rapidly reducing its reliance on the American consumer in favor of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Asian markets. India’s exports rose 1.9% y-o-y in December 2025 to USD 38.51 bn, supported by a push to MENA markets amid 50% US tariffs.

Rebalancing: The US share of India’s export basket has fallen from 22.5% (pre-tariff) to 17.8%, whereas exports to the UAE, China, Saudi Arabia, Spain, and Hong Kong have gained since September 2005, New Indian Express reports citing Elara Capital. “India's export market composition also reflects a clear post-tariff rebalancing, away from excessive dependence on the US toward greater geographic diversification across Middle East, Asia, and select emerging markets,” the report states.

MEANWHILE- India’s trade deficit widened to USD 25 bn in December as imports rose 8.8% y-o-y, a shift likely to add downward pressure to depreciating INR.

POLICY — India has simplified export documentation for MENA markets by authorizing the India and Arab Countries Chamber of Commerce, Industry, and Agriculture (IACCIA) to issue non-preferential certificates of origin for shipments to the region, according to a government order (pdf).

Issuing authority: IACCIA is recognized by India's external affairs and commerce ministries and endorsed by the League of Arab States, the Union of Arab Chambers, and the Council of Arab Ambassadors. It has been added to the list of authorized bodies issuing non-preferential certificates of origin.

Why this matters: The government expects the additional issuing authority to ease documentation processing for exporters, particularly SMEs, supplying to major trade partners including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman.

India’s total bilateral trade with the MENA region reached INR USD 216 bn in FY 2024-2025, according to Mint. Exports to the UAE were USD 36.64 bn, followed by USD 11.76 bn to Saudi Arabia and USD 4.07 bn to Oman.

SHIPPING — Global shipping firm Maersk will resume one of its services through the Suez Canal from 26 January, marking its first structural return to the Red Sea since Houthi attacks in late 2023 forced global rerouting. Maersk will resume its weekly across India and Middle East service linking India posts and Oman’s Port of Salalah with the US east coast, as per a statement.

Transit shift: The reinstated Suez passage is expected to shorten journeys by up to one week compared to the Cape of Good Hope diversion, Maersk said. Shorter sailing times could ease container shipping rates as capacity moves back to the Suez corridor.

Gulf corridor traffic: The MECL service is a long-haul route connecting India and Gulf transshipment hubs—including UAE’s Jebel Ali and Salalah—to Europe and the US East Coast. Restoring Suez transit reduces the need for Cape of Good Hope detours on these routes, which had extended journey times and raised costs for exporters using Gulf hubs.

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The big story abroad

Taiwan and the US have clinched a trade agreement that will lower tariffs for Taiwanese exports, including semiconductors, in the exchange for a USD 250 bn commitment from Taiwanese firms to expand US energy production, the US’ Commerce Department said. This includes a USD 100 bn commitment from semiconductor powerhouse TSMC.

The terms of the agreement: Chipmakers expanding in the US will be able to import up to 2.5 times their new capacity of semiconductors and wafers with no additional tariffs during a specified construction period, while those that have already built chip production plants in the US can import 1.5 times their new US production capacity without paying further tariffs.

^^The must-read on the topic: US, Taiwan reach trade deal focused on semiconductors, US Commerce Department says

Meanwhile, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said she offered US President Donald Trump her Nobel Peace Prize, during a meeting yesterday, as she looks to gain control over future governance in her country. Trump was publicly vying for the prize, which needless to say, cannot be transferred or revoked. (Reuters)

ALSO- Wall Street’s five giant banks —- Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, and Bank of America — saw trading revenues reach a record USD 134 bn last year, as clients rushed to rebalance portfolios amid a wave of political uncertainty. (Bloomberg)

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