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Good morning, friends, and welcome to issue #3 of MENA <> India, where we have a brisk issue to us all off into a well-deserved weekend.

IN THIS MORNING’S ISSUE- ADIA-backed Groww lit up Dalal Street with a stellar debut, soaring in two days and nudging towards an INR 1 tn valuation. Meanwhile, New Delhi and Riyadh are fast-tracking a long-awaited bilateral investment treaty, while Cairo is interested in opportunities in pharma, vaccines, and health-tech.

AND- Indian oil and gas major ONGC is gearing up for a major production push. ReNew announced its biggest India bet — a USD 9.3 bn clean-energy buildout in Andhra Pradesh. SEBI is rolling out reforms to make foreign investors feel a little more at home in India.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- India and Saudi Arabia are fast-tracking talks on a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) designed to boost investment. The news comes after a meeting in New Delhi between Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al Falih, the Finance Ministry said in a post on X.

The pact would encourage deeper capital flows along the corridor by offering clearer protections for investment on both sides. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also met Al-Falih to discuss expanding cooperation across tech, energy, infrastructure, and startups.

REMEMBER- Saudi Arabia has already made significant capital commitments to India, anchored by its USD 100 bn investment pledge during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s 2023 state visit. Global oil giant Aramco has been among the leaders of that charge.

That push is now being operationalized through the High-Level Task Force onInvestment, which was set up in 2024 to fast-track projects. The task force is co-chaired by Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman and P. K. Mishra, the principal secretary to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

#2- Retail inflation in India fell to a record low of 0.25% y-o-y in October, according to government data. Inflation was driven down by a sharp drop in food prices as well as a favourable base effect from last year’s spike and improved supplies after surplus seasonal rains, which bolster agricultural output.

IN CONTEXT- The 0.25% reading is the lowest since India adopted its current consumer price index methodology in 2012.

Policy backdrop: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its benchmark repo rate by 100 basis points since February and paused in October. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect a final 25-basis-point cut in December before the central bank ends its current easing cycle, Bloomberg reports.

Where does it go from here? Pundits now think inflation will undershoot the Reserve Bank of India’s 2.6% forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026, Bloomberg notes. The RBI, which maintains a 4% target, forecasts inflation to rebound to around 4% in the next quarter as the base effect fades and food prices stabilize. Reuters also has the story.

#3- Budget consultations kick off in New Delhi: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has begun consultations with stakeholders from India’s micro, small, and medium enterprises to identify growth bottlenecks and improve competitiveness, per a post on X. The talks mark the start of a broader series of policy consultations ahead of the national budget for FY 2026-27, which will be presented to the parliament this coming February.

#4- Credit rating agency Moody’s reaffirmed India’s medium-term momentum, projecting real GDP growth of 6.4% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027, supported by infrastructure spending, resilient consumption, and more diversified exports, Business Standard reports. The agency noted that India’s growth has remained steady despite high US tariffs, adding that a potential trade agreement could ease pressure.

Moody’s flagged a fragmented global monetary backdrop, with the US Federal Reserve easing and the Reserve Bank of India holding rates steady. It warned that geopolitical shocks, supply-chain disruptions, and weak sentiment in advanced economies will subdue global growth while emerging markets will maintain momentum.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Dealmaking activity in India strengthened in October, as IPOs and large M&A transactions hit a combined INR 1.4 tn (USD 16.8 bn), up 63% from September, BusinessStandard reports, citing Grant Thornton Bharat’s October Dealtracker. The month recorded 218 total transactions, including 189 M&A and private-equity deals, even as the total number of transactions dipped 13%.

By the numbers: Activity was most pronounced in banking and financial services, with INR 427 bn (USD 5.1 bn) across 23 transactions, driven by two marquee deals: Emirates NBD’s USD 3 bn acquisition of a 60% stake in RBL Bank and International Holding Company’s USD 1 bn purchase of a 40% stake in Samman Capital.

#2- India’s economy looks set to remain the world’s fastest-growing. The nation’s economy may have grown as much as 7.2% in the second quarter of the government’s fiscal year, just slightly off the blistering 7.8% pace it recorded in the April-June quarter that preceded it, according to a report by India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) making the rounds of the Indian press.

Driving growth: Strong domestic consumption, the boost to agriculture from stronger-than-normal monsoons (see above), an uptick in manufacturing growth, and continued government spending. “From the demand side, private consumption is a leading growth driver due to steady real income growth both in upper- and lower-income households,” Ind-Ra writes.

When will we know for certain? The National Statistics Office should release official figures on 28 November. Business Standard and Economic Times have more.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

A broad sell-off took hold of equities yesterday as concerns about extreme valuations of AI firms and the US Federal Reserve potentially slowing its easing cycle spurred market jitters. Wall Street posted its worst day in a month, with the S&P 500 sinking 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling 2.3%, as heavyweights like Nvidia and Tesla faced steep losses. Even BTC extended its downturn, falling below USD 100k to its lowest level since May. (Wall Street Journal | Bloomberg | Reuters)

** We have more on the possible trajectory of rate cuts in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

ALSO- Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin launched a rocket with a pair of Nasa aircraft heading to Mars, deploying the aircraft 20 minutes later and recovering its booster following its separation from the aircraft in a major milestone for the company, which is competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX. (Reuters | Bloomberg | AP)

AND A SIGN OF THE TIMES- Three of the songs topping music charts on Spotify this week were generated by AI, with two of them by now-viral AI-generated country artist Breaking Rust. (Guardian)

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