Saudi crude sales to India jump 152% in July as refiners rebuild Gulf supply but Russia holds over half the basket

Gulf reset in India’s crude mix: Russia has maintained its stronghold over India’s crude imports so far in July, but Indian refiners have significantly raised Gulf’s share in the mix. Indian refiners sharply increased purchases from Saudi Arabia while keeping Russian imports near record highs, Kpler data, shared exclusively with EnterpriseAM, shows. (These numbers are data collated for July to date.)

India’s crude imports are steady at around 5 mn bbl / day (bpd), to date, in July compared to June and 4.7 mn bbl / day a year earlier. Russia remains the country’s largest supplier, with shipments rising to 2.78 mn bbl / day, accounting for more than half of crude imports.

The Kingdom’s comeback: Imports from Saudi Arabia are surging to around 736.6k bbl / day this month from just 292.6k bbl / day in June, marking a 151.7% m-o-m jump as refiners increase Gulf procurement. However, Saudi volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels when India was importing about 1 mn bbl / day from Saudi Arabia in February.

Combined imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE stood at around 1.6 mn bbl / day then, compared with about 1.2 mn bbl / day in July, suggesting Gulf producers are recovering lost ground but are yet to reclaim their earlier share of India’s crude basket.

US on the backfoot: Imports from the United States are dropping to 56k bbl / day in July from 157k bbl / day in June, highlighting that Indian refiners continue to favor marked-down Russian barrels over long-haul Atlantic cargoes despite the sanctions risk.

Call for caution: Renewed escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, along with the US President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian crude could complicate procurement strategies for Indian refiners in the coming months.

What next: Russia is expected to continue supplying around half of India’s crude imports through August, according to a Businessline report.