Good afternoon, friends. The shift in mood is stark this morning after the overnight announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The eleventh-hour agreement paves the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, snapping a grueling six-week losing streak for Indian benchmark indices.

But the economic fallout is still being tallied: Even with the ink drying on the truce, New Delhi is taking no chances. The government is reportedly weighing a USD 2.1 bn credit support plan for businesses whose cashflows have been battered by the recent disruptions.

The uncertainty is also looming in the education sector: Indian students are reconsidering the UAE’s image as a safe, low-cost study destination. Deferrals are rising as families price in the risk, taming the robust India-Gulf education corridor.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its benchmark repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 5.25% in its latest review, with the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voting to hold rates and retain a neutral stance as it assesses the impact of the Iran war on the economic outlook, Reuters reports. The RBI expects GDP growth to moderate to 6.9% in FY 2027, compared with an estimated 7.6% in FY 2026. Inflation is projected at 4.6%, remaining within the central bank’s 2-6% target range.

Policy stance: The rate-setting panel is holding its position as it awaits clearer signals on how external shocks — particularly from energy prices and supply constraints — will feed into the domestic economy. The RBI also signaled it will remain proactive on liquidity management, using tools such as open market operations and repo auctions.

Why it matters: Sustained increases in oil prices and disruptions to key inputs could begin to weigh on demand over time, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said. He flagged risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions to supplies and domestic production, particularly as high crude oil prices will feed inflation.

Services growth slowed in March: India’s services sector growth slowed to a 14-month low in March as the Middle East conflict weighed on demand, according to the HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (pdf) compiled by S&P Global.

MEANWHILE- BMI, Fitch Group’s research arm, trimmed India’s FY 2027 growth outlook to 7% from an earlier 7.7% as spillovers from the war mount. Fitch’s outlook comes as other agencies, including EY, downgraded India’s growth forecast, warning that a prolonged conflict could shave 1 percentage point off the country’s GDP growth and lift inflation by 1.5 pp.

IPO WATCH — The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is giving companies planning to go public a one-time extension on the back of market volatility stirred by the war, according to a notification from the Indian market regulator.

What changed? Sebi approvals expiring between 1 April and 30 September will now remain valid until 30 September. The regulator has also relaxed norms on minimum 25% public shareholding, adding that no penal action will be taken for non-compliance during the period. Existing penalties, such as fines or freezing promoter holdings, may also be withdrawn.

Why it matters: India typically requires companies to list within 12-18 months of Sebi approval. The move follows multiple IPO deferrals amid market volatility, allowing issuers to access better time listings.

Market mood: Despite volatility, IPO filing activity remains strong. March saw 38 firms including SBI Funds Management and Mubadala-backed Manipal Health file their draft prospectus. However, recent listings saw muted debuts, reflecting cautious investor appetite.

Big-ticket listings ahead, including the National Stock Exchange and Jio Platforms, are expected to hit markets, alongside electric mobility firm BatterySmart and lending platform Fibe, keeping the pipeline active despite near-term uncertainty.

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Data point

INR 20.8 tn (USD 250 bn) — that’s the projected size of India’s e-commerce market by 2030, up from around INR 7.5 tn (USD 90 bn) currently, according to a report (pdf) by Google and Deloitte.

Growth drivers: Future growth is expected to be driven by shifts in how users discover and transact online, including increased use of AI tools, content-led shopping, and faster delivery formats. These trends are estimated to contribute around INR 9.3 tn (USD 100 bn) to the market expansion. Some 220 mn Gen Z shoppers are projected to account for about 45% of online consumption, shaping platform design and product discovery.

Quick commerce: Rapid delivery platforms — already expanding beyond grocery into beauty, fashion, and electronics — are projected to scale into an INR 4.2 tn (USD 50 bn) segment with around 70 mn users.

Happening this week

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will visit the UAE on Saturday where he is scheduled to meet senior leadership to review bilateral cooperation under the India-UAE comprehensive strategic partnership, according to a press release.

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