Good afternoon, readers and a happy Friday. We are closing out a turbulent week with a sliver of good news as Tehran has agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for Indian vessels.

But the macroeconomic reality of high crude will still bite hard. India is taking a massive fiscal hit, aggressively slashing excise duties to shield domestic consumers from the global surge in oil prices, even as private refiners like Nayara break the freeze and hike pump rates.

Unsurprisingly, the uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on the capital markets. Indian equities are deep in the red this afternoon, the INR has plunged to yet another record low against the greenback, and the fallout is spilling over into everything from fertilizer subsidies to the manufacturing sector.

Let’s dive in.

From the Dept. of Diplomacy

Iran has selectively reopened the Strait of Hormuz to “friendly” nations including India, Russia and China, according to Iran’s Embassy in India. This move follows sustained diplomacy by New Delhi’s with Iranian leaders over the last few days, including direct phone calls between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Leverage over energy flows: The strait, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows, has become an epicentre of the war. Iran has framed its restrictions as a wartime measure, adding that ships tied to its “enemy countries” such as the US and Israel will not be allowed passage. Last week, US President Donald Trump intensified pressure, threatening to bomb Iran’s power plants if the Strait was not opened in 48 hours. Iran did not seem to buckle. Trump backed down from his threat claiming a diplomatic breakthrough had been made with Iran and extended the deadline by 10 more days.

Why it matters: With India’s energy security directly contingent on energy flows through the Hormuz, India has secured a significant win. However, the durability of this arrangement remains in question as war-related instability persists.

Watch this space

AGRICULTURE— India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could increase by INR up to INR 250 bn (USD 2.7 bn) as higher input costs of raw materials and imports ripple through the sector, as per a report by Crisil Ratings. A sustained three-month disruption in LNG and ammonia supplies is projected to slash domestic fertilizer production by up to 15%.

India relies on the Middle East for 65% of its LNG and 80% of its ammonia — two critical inputs for urea production. Rising costs and supply disarray will push the total subsidy expenditure by 12-15% — above the INR 1.7 tn (USD 18 bn) allocated by the government for FY 2027.

Limited buffer: Government measures, including prioritizing gas supply to urea plants and maintaining buffer stocks, may cushion near-term impact, says Crisil. If the disruption continues ahead of the summer sowing season, it may necessitate additional fiscal support from the state.

OIL — Are Indian refiners using AED to skirt USD? Indian refiners are reportedly using the AED, among other alternative currencies to the USD, to buy Russian oil, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The move aims to hedge against shifts in US policy amid persistent regional turmoil and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The US gave India a temporary 30-day waiver earlier this month to purchase Russian oil, but Russia is reportedly pushing India to find a longer-term solution via alternative currencies.

How are the wheels turning? India’s INR is being deposited into overseas bank accounts managed by Russian sellers before being converted into AED or China’s CNY. Singapore’s SGD and Hong Kong’s HKD are also reportedly under consideration, contingent on each bank’s risk appetite, sources told the business news service.

Is a shift to the CNY happening at a wider level? The war is casting doubt on the USD’s position as the de facto currency for trade, with Deutsche Bank flagging China’s CNY as a possible alternative.

FROM THE RUMOR MILL — Reliance Industries has denied purchasing Iranian crude under the US sanctions waiver, refuting the reports as “baseless and incorrect,” according to an exchange filing. The clarification follows reports that the company had bought around 5 mn barrels from the National Iranian Oil Company — in what would have been India’s first Iranian crude import since 2019, when sanctions halted flows.

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Data point

USD 92 bn — That is the projected size of India’s packaging industry by FY 2030, growing at a 9% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, according to an Avendus Capital report.

Context: India remains the world’s fastest-growing packaging market, with rigid plastics contributing a significant share of this growth. The sector is expected to outpace GDP growth by 1.3x, with demand surging across food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, personal care and e-commerce. Flexible packaging remains dominant, as low per-capita consumption signals significant headroom for long-term growth.

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump has once again extended his deadline for Iran to lock in an agreement with the US before its energy facilities are targeted, this time for a 10-day period. He also doubled down on his claims that talks are ongoing and are going “very well,” saying that any claims to the contrary are being propagated by “Fake News Media.” Iranian media has repeatedly claimed that Iranian officials are denying that negotiations are taking place, and the US’ 15-point peace plan was rejected by Iran initially, which demanded undisputed control over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and other conditions.

He also claimed Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait this week as a “present” to the US, helping oil prices fall slightly, with Brent Crude dipping to USD 105.94 per barrel.

At the same time… the US is reportedly considering sending over 10k troops to the Middle East in another sign that Trump is preparing for an extended war, the Wall Street Journal reports. That’s up from around 2-3k troops it said it plans to deploy earlier this week.

Markets aren’t very optimistic: The Nasdaq entered correction territory yesterday, falling 2.4%, and more than 10% from recent highs. The S&P 500 also closed down 1.7%.

Speaking of Trump, expect to see his signature on USD 100 bills as of this June, marking the first time a sitting US president signs paper currency in 165 years and dropping the US treasurer’s signature.

ALSO- Elon Musk could be putting 30% of SpaceX up for retail investors as part of its highly anticipated IPO, 3x more than the usual amid what is said to be strong demand among Musk’s large follower base.

Market watch

CAPITAL MARKETS — Indian equities fell sharply today, with the BSE Sensex trading (as of 3:30pm IST) 2.1% lower while the Nifty 50 dropped 2% amid souring investor sentiment following Goldman Sachs’ bleak outlook for Indian stocks.

Downgrade: Goldman Sachs has downgraded Indian equities to “marketweight” from “overweight,” slashing its 12-month Nifty 50 target by 14% due to surging oil prices and an earnings downgrade cycle. The bank also trimmed its India GDP growth forecast to 5.9% and raised its inflation estimate by 70 bps, forecasting a decline in earnings over the next two to three quarters.

Context: The sell-off follows a brief rally earlier this week on hopes of a potential US-Iran de-escalation, which saw the Nifty 50 gain 2.2% and the BSE Sensex rise 2.1%. The indices have declined around 9% since the war started.

Meanwhile- The INR plunges to another record low trading 94.6 to the USD as Brent Crude surged again and uncertainty over Iran war looms.

Circle your calendar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the G7 Summit in Evian, France kicking off on Monday, 15 June and will run through Wednesday, 17 June, as per a press release from France’s Foreign Ministry. India’s participation was confirmed during talks between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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