Good afternoon, friends, and happy hump day. In today’s busy issue, we lead with PM Narendra Modi’s speech to the Indian parliament on the fallout of the war with Iran.

Energy remains our big theme today as Reliance Industries picked up 5 mn barrels of Iranian crude. On the gas front, India’s policy moves are geared toward long-term solutions in the absence of credible alternative supply sources outside the GCC.

Plus, some good news: Mubadala-backed Manipal Health has filed for an IPO to raise USD 1.17 bn. Also, Indian equities rebounded significantly on hopes of the conflict concluding soon.

Watch this space

LOGISTICS — India and Iran shut down rumors of a USD 2 mn Hormuz transit toll: India’s Shipping Ministry firmly rejected reports that India-bound vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be subjected to a transit levy, Business Standard reports.

Where did the rumor come from? Media reports recently quoted Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi as saying that merchant vessels were being charged USD 2 mn for safe passage through the conflict-hit region.

The official line: The Iranian Embassy in India quickly moved to quash the rumors on Monday, saying in a statement that the lawmaker’s comments were “unfounded.” The mission clarified that the statements reflected personal views and did not represent the official position of Iran. A senior Indian official in the Ministry of Shipping reaffirmed that the critical maritime chokepoint is governed by international conventions ensuring freedom of navigation and called the reports about the levy “baseless.”

More Indian vessels transiting Hormuz soon? The Indian government is seeking clearance for six more Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) carriers. However, Indian authorities have not given any details on when the ships will start sailing. Last week, we reported that India had stepped up its diplomatic efforts for the passage of tankers carrying 270k tonnes of LPG through the strait. As of today, at least four India-bound vessels have managed to cross Hormuz following high-level diplomatic talks, while 22 others remain stranded at sea.

TRADING — India extends UAE gold imports quota amid trade disruptions: India has extended the validity of low tariff rate quota authorizations for gold imports from the UAE until 30 June from its original 31 March deadline, Reuters reports, citing India’s Foreign Trade Directorate General.

What this means: The measure falls under the UAE-India CEPA and will be automatically applied to all authorizations issued in FY 2025-26. Importers won’t have to submit new applications or pay additional fees.

IN CONTEXT- Gold supply chains are among the many that have been disrupted by the war. Earlier in the conflict, there were reports of rerouting gold flows to other refinery destinations further out of the direct line of fire. However, rerouting is likely to come with a heftier price tag, which could help Dubai remain a top pick for refining.

Data point

USD 26.18 bn — that’s the value of India’s gems and jewelry exports in FY 2026 up to February. The UAE has overtaken the US as the largest export market for India, accounting for 32.7% of total exports. Nearly half of India’s gems and precious stones come from the Emirates, while 23% of its gold comes from there.

Middle East conflict threatens India’s jewelry exports: The sector is already struggling to keep its head above water following the imposition of US tariffs, with overall export growth flatlining in FY 2026 compared to the previous fiscal year.

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Sign of the Times

DIPLOMACY — US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the war and its impact on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a post on X. Modi emphasized that the critical maritime chokepoint must remain “open, secure, and accessible” to ensure global economic stability.

Ruffling feathers in New Delhi: The conversation marks their first known exchange since the war began. India’s archrival, Pakistan, has begun positioning itself as a potential diplomatic broker between Washington and Tehran to help de-escalate the ongoing hostilities. Islamabad’s sudden emergence as a diplomatic go-between is causing unease in some circles in India. Indian analyst Brahma Chellaney has dubbed the call between Modi and Trump as “damage control” in a post on X, adding that Trump is undermining his “friend” Modi.

The big story abroad

In what would be a major escalation, the Pentagon is reportedly expected to dispatch thousands of soldiers to the region and potentially inside Iranian territory. The number of troops reportedly ranges from 2k to 3k soldiers from the US Army’s Airborne Division.

Meanwhile, Iran says Strait of Hormuz is open: Tehran said that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz “in coordination with Iranian authorities,” in a letter to International Maritime Organization members. That said, some 3.2k vessels remain stuck in the Arabian Gulf, seemingly unwilling to brave the waterway yet.

Mediators from Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan want to set up talks between the US and Iran by Thursday, though a diplomatic divide remains between Washington and Tehran, the Wall Street Journal reports.

And in the world of AI: ChatGPT maker OpenAI is shuttering its video generation offering Sora just six months after its debut in a bid to streamline its products. The company positioned the program as a means to create lifelike AI-generated videos within a community-focused environment. Available on the Apple App Store without charge, Sora has seen its popularity decline since its debut.

Market watch

CAPITAL MARKETS — Hope of US-Iran diplomacy is breathing life into Indian markets: India’s benchmark indices surged on Wednesday following reports that the US has pitched a 15-point plan to Tehran for a month-long ceasefire, raising optimism that the conflict could soon see a de-escalation.

The numbers: The Nifty 50 climbed 2.2% while the BSE Sensex added 2.1% by mid-day trading. The two indices have declined up to 8% in the last 30 days. If the momentum holds, it will mark the second consecutive day of gains for the benchmarks. The rally was broad-based, with 15 of the 16 major sectors trading in the green.

The conflict-driven volatility has taken a heavy toll on foreign investment in recent weeks. Foreign investors have dumped a staggering USD 11.3 bn worth of Indian equities so far in March, setting the stage for the highest monthly sell-off on record.

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