Call for de-escalation: India has called for “dialogue and diplomacy” to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East amid fears of a broadening conflict hitting its maritime neighbourhood.

The escalating US-Israel and Iran conflict carries direct implications for India, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told the Parliament on Monday, as per a statement. Prolonged instability could disrupt supply chains and energy flows, the minister said.

India permitted three Iranian naval vessels to dock at Indian ports following a US submarine attack on an Iranian naval warship near the southern coast of Sri Lanka on 4 March. The Iranian frigate, IRIS Dena, had recently joined the Milan naval exercise hosted by India in the Bay of Bengal, and was beginning its return to Iran.

Casualties: Iran said that 104 crew members aboard the warship were killed in the US attack and 32 others were injured. The Indian Navy launched search operations after a distress alert via Colombo’s Maritime Rescue Coordination Center.

Defense strategist decodes the strike

“The conflict has moved beyond the familiar chokepoint of the Gulf of Hormuz to the wider Indian Ocean,” Lt. Gen D.S. Hooda, defence expert and former Commander of the Indian Army’s Northern Command, told EnterpriseAM. The incident has heightened anxiety around the Indian Ocean becoming a contested battlespace, Hooda said.

An unusual spillover: Historically, US-Iran friction has remained concentrated around the Gulf. “The message being sent by Washington is that Iranian naval assets are not safe anywhere in international waters,” he added, describing the signal “as psychological as it is kinetic.”

Expect greater naval activity: The strike could heighten naval activity across the Indian Ocean, said Hooda, who expects the US to increase its presence. “Iran’s ability to project military power in the Indian Ocean is limited, so its activity will likely remain closer to its own shores.” However, others such as China could expand deployments if commercial shipping routes are threatened.

Energy routes under scrutiny: India will need contingency plans for potential disruptions to civilian maritime traffic, according to Hooda. The closure of Hormuz has already exposed the vulnerability of key shipping routes. “Any broader disruption to commercial movement across the Indian Ocean could directly affect India’s energy supplies and trade flows.” While the situation is not immediately critical, it presents longer-term strategic risks that require close monitoring, Hooda told us.

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