As tensions escalate in the Middle East, a mass evacuation of the Indian diaspora from the Gulf is unadvisable and practically impossible due to severe logistical, economic, and strategic consequences, several experts told EnterpriseAM. With an estimated 9 mn Indians residing in the Gulf, the sheer scale of a potential rescue operation would dwarf historical precedents.

Gigantic task: “If India evacuates only 25% of them, it would mean almost 2.5 mn people,” Geopolitical expert Dr. Omair Anas told EnterpriseAM, calling it a “gigantic” and an “impossible” task. He noted that the largest successful Indian evacuation in recent memory involved some 50k people from Kuwait. That effort relied heavily on open land borders, “a luxury that does not exist in the ongoing war that has engulfed the entire region,” Anas told us.

“A state-led evacuation of even a fraction of 9 mn Gulf migrants would mean multi-bn-dollar outlays on transport and relief,” Economist Abhijit Mukhopaday echoed the views of Anas. He noted such an effort could strain bilateral ties with the GCC nations given these economies' dependence on Indian workers.

Wait and watch: “Many Indians who are residing there and working may not want to come back. They’d rather wait and watch, of course, with a certain amount of risk,” he observed, adding that the government would also “patiently wait and watch” as long as the crises remain in control. The scale of evacuations from the Gulf would include heavy use of “military lift plus private carriers, and close cooperation with host states. It seems feasible, but not without friction and bumps (for India),” Abhijit noted.

Quiet and need-based evacuation

The Indian government has so far organized 58 domestic flights to various Gulf cities to facilitate the movement of stranded passengers. At least 12k Indians in the Gulf, mostly stranded passengers in the UAE, have asked for government help to evacuate amid airspace closures, Indian Express reports. Indian embassies and consulates across the Middle East are working to evacuate mainly stranded passengers, citizens in Iran, and individuals in dire medical or financial need, an Indian diplomat told us on condition of anonymity.

No budgetary pressure as yet: The government is so far using funds of the Indian Committee Welfare Association — which are topped up with 3% of the visa fees collected by each embassy and consulate — for evacuation support.

Only panicked travellers: So far, most Indians residing in GCC countries feel safe because they have not faced any major harm and are not panicking. However, a large number of stranded passengers would like to return home or to their country of residence instead of being stranded at an airport.

Does India want them back?

The Indian diaspora in GCC countries is estimated to send back USD 45 to 50 bn home in remittances every year. A mass exodus would dry up crucial remittance flows and trigger a domestic economic crisis as mns return home unemployed, similar to the hurdles Kerala faced during the 2008 financial crisis, Anas noted. During the 2008 financial crisis, thousands of Indian workers abroad returned home, “at that time the government had to announce a special economic and employment package to rehabilitate them,” he said.

In the scenario of a protracted conflict that adversely affects economic activity in the Gulf region, remittance flows into India could see a moderation with a lagged ripple effect on consumption-linked sectors, ICRA told us. Remittances from these workers fund household spending on housing, education, and consumption. “They have also historically provided a stable source of foreign exchange for the country, partly offsetting its structural trade deficit,” ICRA’s Makkar told us.

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