Good afternoon, readers, it has been a hectic and stressful week with the drums of war expanding each day. We hope you are keeping safe during these troubling times.

Our big story today looks at the broader economic impact of the Iran war on the Indian economy. From LNG disruptions to Washington’s brief reprieve allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian crude, the war is dominating decision-making and policy considerations across the corridor.

Where things stand this afternoon

  • A prolonged conflict will force the Gulf energy exporters to halt energy production, Qatar’s energy minister has warned while speaking to Financial Times. It will take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to normal exports after Qatar Energy halted its LNG exports. You can read the full story here.
  • Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry accused Iran of a drone attack that flew across its border and injured four civilians, and vowed to respond to Iran’s act of aggression, Reuters reports;
  • Iran’s armed forces denied responsibility for the attack and blamed Israel for the action, according to Iranian state media ;
  • Bahrain’s main oil refinery was targeted yesterday, resulting in a fire that was later contained;
  • The latest update from the UAE’s Defense Ministry said it intercepted six ballistic missiles yesterday night, with the final one falling into Emirati territory. It also detected 131 drones, six of which weren’t intercepted.

Watch this space

POLICY WATCH — The Indian government today invoked emergency powers to stabilize cooking fuel supply, requiring oil refiners to maximize liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production amid ongoing disruptions triggered by the Iran war.

The government comments: State refiners such as IOC, HPCL, and BPCL have been directed to increase propane and butane for household LPG to ensure that state distributors have enough supply, Reuters reports. The government has also barred the diversion of propane and butane for petrochemical production.

In our big story today, we cover in detail how the Iran war is disrupting India’s LNG supplies, which could also have a broader economic knock-on impact, particularly on the price-sensitive farming sector.

Meanwhile, Australia and Canada haveoffered to increase the supply of natural gas as New Delhi seeks alternate sources. India is in talks with global oil producers and traders to secure energy supplies, while the country is also engaging the US to secure ins. coverage for disrupted shipping routes.

CURRENCY — The INR briefly crossed the 92 per USD — an all time low — before recovering to around 91.6/USD today which prompted intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to help the steady currency, Reuters reports.

Central bank support: The central bank has deployed some USD 12 bn to stem the decline as economic fall out from the Iran war broadens, Reuters reports. The war has triggered USD 2 bn of foreign investor outflow from the Indian stock market amid rising energy prices and disruptions to trade flows.

Why it matters: The aggressive intervention by the RBI highlights the downward on INR as higher crude prices remain key risks for India’s currency outlook. Persistent disruptions to energy flows could widen India’s current account deficit and add further pressure on the INR.

***

YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM MENA <> India, your C-suite briefing on the movement of trade, investment, people, and ideas along one of the world’s most exciting corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 2:30 pm UAE, we dive deep into the business, finance, economy, and policy headlines and trendlines that will move markets and set the tone for your day.

Were you forwarded this briefing? Tap or click here to sign up without charge for your owncopy.

***

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump just fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after months of controversy following fatal shootings of US citizens by federal officers and a controversial USD 220 mn advertising contract. Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin is set to replace her by the end of the month. This marks the first cabinet minister under Trump’s second term to be fired.

The US is also reportedly considering implementing requirements to export Nvidia and AMD chips only to countries who have made investment pledges in the US. This would follow a tiered format, the Financial Times reports, depending on the compute power exchanging hands.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Tags: