Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It has been a nail-biting three days since we last landed in your inboxes, and we have a lot of ground to cover today on how the escalating conflict in the GCC region has impacted MENA-India trade, logistics, and business — and what’s to come. But first, a few quick notices before we dive into the story dominating headlines across the globe.

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DIPLOMACY — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Narendra Modi agreed to increase bilateral trade to USD 50 bn by 2030 as the two sides accelerate negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), the two leaders said in a joint press conference. Carney is currently in India as Ottawa and New Delhi seek to reset bilateral ties, which have been strained since 2023.

Energy and defence cooperation: The two leaders announced a long-term nuclear agreement and launched a strategic energy partnership covering wind, solar, and hydrogen. They also agreed to hold a renewable energy storage summit. The two countries aims to deepen defence cooperation and establish a structured defence dialogue.

Technology + education: The visit covered new university partnerships and an agreement allowing Canadian universities to open campuses in India. The two governments also committed to expanding in AI, digital public infrastructure, and other emerging technologies, alongside deeper cooperation on talent mobility and research partnerships, according to a statement from the Prime Minister of Canada.

Why it matters: For Gulf energy producers and sovereign investors, the India-Canada reset adds another layer to New Delhi’s strategy of diversifying nuclear fuel, clean energy, and technology supply chains. The USD 50 bn trade and planned CEPA broaden India’s external economic alignment at a time when capital and energy flows across the India-GCC corridor remain central to India’s economic growth.

M&A — Emirates NBD encounters stiff competition in India’s biggest bank sale: Canada’s Fairfax Financial has emerged as the frontrunner to acquire a 61% stake in Indian state-owned IDBI Bank — a roughly USD 8.1 bn transaction at current prices and potentially the largest foreign investment in India’s banking sector, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Fairfax, led by Indian-born Canadian b’naire Prem Watsa, is said to be ahead in advanced talks, though no agreement has been signed.

REFRESHER- As we’ve previously reported, Emirates NBD had secured fit-and-proper clearance from India’s central bank in December. The Dubai lender is also working on its USD 3 bn RBL Bank acquisition, with plans to fold its Indian branches into RBL as it builds a longer-term platform in India’s expanding credit market, the sources said.

The bigger picture? Gulf capital is leaning further into Indian finance. Abu Dhabi’s IHC acquired a controlling stake in Sammaan Capital for USD 1 bn last year, signaling a regional appetite for the sector. Separately, the UAE and India signed new agreements this year targeting USD 200 bn in bilateral trade by 2032, while India and the GCC formally launched negotiations last month toward a trade pact.

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The big story abroad

The global front pages are all about the regional war and its impact on markets this morning. Between soaring oil prices and a strengthening USD, markets, currencies, and commodities are seeing massive fluctuations as investors look for safety amid all the uncertainty.

Worth reading: The Financial Times is out with a piece looking at what this all means for theglobal economy, while the Wall Street Journal dives into what a post-Khamenei Iran could look like.

From stocks to oil and logistics, we dive into what this all means for us at home.

Market watch

Opec+ is adding barrels to global supply in April: Opec+ agreed to resume production increases next month, with key members agreeing to 206k bbl / d after pausing hikes in 1Q, according to a statement. This comes as turmoil rattles the Middle East, regional output faces threats, traffic in Hormuz is halted, and talk of oil reaching triple digits surfaces. Middle Eastern leaders have warned the US that a war on Iran could push oil prices above USD 100 / bbl, RBC’s Helima Croft told Reuters, with Barclays analysts penciling in the same level.

Abu Dhabi is already leaning in, with more Murban heading to the market in April, Bloomberg reports, citing anonymous sources. Adnoc offered additional volumes to partners in the onshore concession — some of which have already flipped extra cargoes into the spot market. The exact size and distribution of the incremental supply remain unclear.

A supply flex, but with limits? Key members had paused a series of hikes earlier this year before restarting them now — and some, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, already began ramping up exports last month. Formal quotas may not capture the full response. The group’s spare capacity sits largely with Saudi and the UAE, totaling some 2.5 mn bbl / d. Some analysts argue that even that cushion may be overstated.

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