Good afternoon, friends. We have a concise issue today, with headlines covering trade talks, energy, and tech all moving in tandem.

The big story today: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has anchored the IPO of CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions, putting renewed SWF weight behind India’s renewables pipeline.

Plus: India has formally kicked off free trade talks with the GCC, as New Delhi looks to chip away at a USD 64.8 billion deficit with the bloc. Parallel trade negotiations with Israel are also underway.

ALSO- India is already lining up for Saudi Aramco’s Jafurah project, with Indian Oil among early buyers of the ultra-light crude from the USD 100 billion project.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

TRADE — India and Israel are carrying out the first round of negotiations for a freetrade agreement (FTA). This round of talks began on 23 February and is scheduled to run through Friday, following a meeting between Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and an Israeli delegation in New Delhi, according to a post on X.

Negotiations cover chapters such as trade in goods and services, rules of origin, technical barriers to trade, customs procedures, trade facilitation and intellectual property rights, according to ANI.

Context: Merchandise trade between India and Israel stood at USD 3.62 bn in FY 2025. India and Israel signed the terms of reference to begin freetrade agreement (FTA) negotiations in November 2025. A Bilateral Investment Agreement was also signed in September 2025 by the finance ministers.

Happening now: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Israel today for a state visit.

RETAIL — India’s e-commerce market is projected to rise up to USD 300 bn by 2030 from USD 120-140 bn currently, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report. The growth trajectory is relevant for Gulf SWFs such as Adia, PIF, QIA and Mubadala Investment Company, which have invested bns in Indian consumer-tech platforms across e-commerce, food delivery and digital services.

Growth drivers: E-services are projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20-22%, compared with 16-18% for e-retail, reflecting faster adoption in digital-first categories. Category-led marketplaces drive over 60% of online spending while quick commerce is scaling at over 100% CAGR. Social or chat-based commerce formats are growing at 40-45%, led by adoption in Tier II and Tier III markets.

Shopper base: India counts roughly 300 mn online shoppers, a figure forecast to climb to about 440 mn by 2030, with rural consumers accounting for roughly 30% of the user base. Online commerce still accounts for up to 8% of total consumer spending and offline retail has grown at 13-14% annually.

GDP WATCH — India’s economy likely expanded by more than 8% in 3Q (October to December) FY 2026, according to a State Bank of India (SBI) report, citing resilient high-frequency indicators across consumption, industry, and services.

A bullish outlier: SBI estimates a 3Q growth rate of 8.1%, well above peers’ estimates, including ratings agency ICRA at 7.2% and the Reserve Bank of India’s 7% projection. SBI said rural demand remains strong, while urban consumption has improved since the festive season.

The Statistics Ministry will release official GDP data on Friday, using a new base (FY 2022-23) that shifts base year from FY 2011-12, alongside revised back-series numbers, adding uncertainty to comparisons.

The report also flagged divergent banking trends: Public-sector banks’ net income rose 12.5% y-o-y in the nine months to December, sharply outpacing private lenders’ roughly 3% growth.

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Data point

INR 411 bn (USD 4.5 bn) — that was the total capital raised by Indian fintech firms across 226 transactions in 2025, making India the world’s third-most active fintech market after the US and the UK, according to the FT Partners 2025 Annual FinTech Almanac.

Context:The US recorded 1.6k financings, the UK had 336, while India accounted for roughly 6% of global fintech transaction volume and close to 6% of global funding value.

Happening tomorrow

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit India tomorrow to hold a bilateral summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, where discussions are expected to cover trade, clean energy, and the formal revival of negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), Fortune India reports. Talks on CEPA, first launched in 2010, were paused in September 2023 amid diplomatic tensions but were formally relaunched in November 2025 on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg.

The big story abroad

The Netflix-Paramount-Warner Bros saga is once again in the headlines, with Warner Bros confirming that Paramount’s sweetened bid of USD 31 a share could beat out Netflix’s effort. If Paramount’s bid is deemed superior to Netflix’s, the streaming giant will have four business days to match it — so it is still anyone’s game. Paramount is also offering a USD 0.25 per share “ticking fee” for every quarter the transaction does not close after September 2026.

Making waves in the tech world this morning is a new agreement between Meta and Advanced Micro Devices. Meta is buying USD 60 bn worth of computing power, which will power its AI infrastructure over a five-year stretch starting 2H 2026. AMD issued Meta a warrant for up to 160 mn shares — approximately 10% of the company — at a strike price of just USD 0.01 per share, contingent upon Meta hitting specific milestones and AMD hitting a set stock price threshold.

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING- A Harvard-led study found that a machine-learning algorithm can predict 71% of mutual-fund trading decisions after training it on data between 1990-2023. It appears that the algorithm has learned how managers react to trends, flows, and activity from their peers. That said, the algorithm failed to predict activities that fell outside the routine, which represents most of the value to be secured on the market.

Market watch

TECH — India’s IT sector is set to cross the USD 300 bn revenue mark for the first time this fiscal year projected to reach USD 315 bn by 31 March, as per a report by industry body National Association of Software and Service Companies (Nasscom). With a 6.1% y-o-y growth, a similar expansion is expected next year as global IT spending recovers and AI-led investments accelerate.

Why it matters: The sector is grappling with a significant crisis. Stock prices have tanked on fears that GenAI will cannibalize traditional coding and Nasscom is attempting to dampen the bearish sentiment. In a first, Nasscom has quantified revenue from AI-specific services at USD 10-12 bn for FY 2026, while admitting that AI is “compressing” traditional software roles. It expects the IT industry to add 135k new jobs this year. Despite damp industry sentiment, Nasscom argues that AI is redistributing work rather than eroding demand.

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