Good afternoon, friends. India’s aviation, energy, and industrial policies are converging in ways that are challenging old assumptions.

The big story: As New Delhi pushes to build national champions and expand long-haul capacity, Gulf carriers are finding their growth limited by bilateral seat caps. With new air service agreements frozen, Gulf airlines are being nudged toward premium cabins over volume-driven passenger growth.

Meanwhile: India wants cheaper, more flexible LNG before locking in long-term US contracts, even as Washington encourages New Delhi to buy more American gas to secure tariff relief. Pricing, not politics, is likely to decide how much market share Qatar and the UAE retain.

Elsewhere, Oman is courting Indian metalmakers to build downstream aluminum capacity at Sohar.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

ENERGY — India is demanding competitive pricing and flexible terms to commit to long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with the US. The country’s largest importer, Petronet LNG, has said that lower prices are the key factor deciding its supply diversification, Bloomberg reports, citing the company’s CEO Akshay Singh. Increased buying from the US is likely to reduce imports from traditional Gulf suppliers.

Why it matters: The US was India’s third-largest LNG supplier last year, accounting for 12% of imports, trailing Qatar and the UAE. American officials are pressing New Delhi to sign long-term energy contracts as part of a broader trade framework aimed at expanding US exports, as New Delhi unwinds Russian crude to secure an 18% US tariff cap.

American vs. Gulf supplies: While the US wants India to step up purchases, the US LNG contracts are typically linked to the volatile Henry Hub benchmark and involve take-or-pay clauses, alongside higher freight costs, making them less attractive than Brent-linked Middle Eastern supply.

What’s next: With India’s LNG demand set to rise sharply this decade, pricing dynamics are likely to take precedence over geopolitics for future purchases.

M&A — UAE-based Trueledger Technologies has expressed preliminary interest in acquiring up to 20% stake in Mumbai-based IT firm Silverline Technologies, according to a regulatory filing (pdf). The non-binding offer is subject to regulatory approval and open to further negotiations.

Silverline Technologies offers software and enterprise solutions to global clients. It recently debuted a beta version of its in-house AI chatbot and productivity tool, Silver AI, which is slated for commercial rollout this month.

Why it matters: Gulf capital has shown an increased appetite for Indian AI platforms as firms chase scalable, product-led technology players beyond traditional IT services. Silverline is attempting a pivot from legacy IT services toward a high-margin AI product play.

!_InsterLine_!

TELECOMS — Subsea route plugs into India, UAE and Singapore: Dubai-based Du is joining the Singapore-India-Gulf (SING) submarine cable system, partnering with Cyprus-based Datawave Networks to land the network in the UAE, Zawya reports, citing a press statement.

About the system: SING will link six hubs — Kalba, Muscat, Mumbai, Chennai, Kedah, and Singapore — creating a fresh east-west pathway between Southeast Asia, India, and the Gulf. The cable is expected to enter into service in 2030, with Kalba serving as the UAE landing point.

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Data point

USD 23 bn — this was the size of India’s auto exports in FY 2025. The automotive component industry grew at a compound annual growth rate of about 14% between FY 2020 and FY 2025 to reach roughly USD 80 bn, with exports rising 1.5x to nearly USD 23 bn, according to a joint study by the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India and Boston Consulting Group. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the top five export destinations for India’s auto industry.

Happening next week

The India AI Impact Summit 2026 will kick off in New Delhi on Monday and run through Friday (20 February) at Bharat Mandapam. The event is positioned as the first global AI Summit to be held in the Global South. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address the main plenary on 19 February.

World leaders attending the event include Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Estonia’s Alar Karis, Slovakia’s Peter Pellegrini, Sri Lanka’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, and Switzerland’s Guy Parmelin.

Big tech CEOs expected to attend include Sundar Pichai, Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, Dario Amodei, and Demis Hassabis, among others.

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The big story abroad

Markets are still dominating the conversation in the international business press, with all eyes on the tech rout that continues to hit US stocks, after the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 2% yesterday and the S&P 500 fell 1.6%. This came as Cisco’s share price fell 12.3% after it missed its earnings targets, reigniting concerns around the impact of AI on existing industries.

In another sign that AI is becoming too big to ignore, Anthropic has now raised the second largest private tech fundraising round on record, with a USD 30 bn round raised at a USD 380 bn valuation, following OpenAI’s USD 40 bn round last year. The round was co-led by US investment firm Coatue and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, as well as other investors like ICONIQ and Abu Dhabi AI investor MGX, and includes previous allocations from Microsoft and Nvidia.

Also: The US administration repealed Obama-era policies that required automakers to measure and report their greenhouse gas emissions, with US President Donald Trump claiming it’s a “disastrous” policy that “severely damaged the American auto industry and drove up prices for American consumers.”

AND CLOSER TO HOME- Saudi Arabia replaced its investment minister, appointing Fahad Al Seif, head of investment strategy and global capital finance at the Public Investment Fund, at the helm of the ministry, and removing his predecessor Khalid Al Falih, who held the role since 2020. The move came as part of a wider cabinet reshuffle that also saw changes in the judicial and grievances spheres. It also comes as the Kingdom reassesses its spending priorities and continues to prioritize attracting investments for the purposes of economic diversification.

Market watch

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850k bbl / d, a 80k bbl / d drop from last month, due to economic uncertainty and higher oil prices, Reuters reports, citing the agency’s latest monthly report. Supply growth was also trimmed to 2.4 mn bbl / d from 2.5 mn bbl / d, but still runs far ahead of demand.

The gap: The agency now sees global supply exceeding demand by 3.73 mn bbl / d this year, close to last month ’s projection and equal to roughly 4% of global demand.

Opec is telling a different story — as usual: The group held its demand growth outlook steady, penciling in a rise of 1.38 mn bbl / d, Reuters reported, citing the group’s latest monthly report (pdf). That’s some 530k bbl / d in disagreement with the IEA, according to our calculations.

But even Opec’s own numbers point to near-term softness for its barrels. Demand for Opec+ crude is expected to fall by 400k bbl / d in 2Q, with group demand averaging 42.2 mn bbl / d, down from 42.6 mn bbl / d in 1Q.

Why this matters: This all comes as we wait for Opec+’s decision for supply after 1Q ends and the pause they said they would take seemingly expires, especially as any abrupt hikes risk turning a manageable surplus into a price problem.

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Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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