Good afternoon, readers, and happy Friday. We close the week with many updates on trade and energy. India’s largest refiner is tilting towards Venezuelan crude amid US pressure to cut down Russian imports, and the Tata Group is pivoting towards nuclear power.

On the trade front, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council have resumed talks on a trade agreement after two decades. While India is doubling down on trade pacts, its deficit with FTA-partner nations is expanding, raising eyebrows in New Delhi’s power corridors. We interviewed a leading Indian economist to explain why India’s FTAs are not contributing to higher exports.

Plus: India emerged as a top source of foreign investments into the UAE in 2025, surpassing American capital allocators.

All of that and more, below.

Watch this space

ENERGY — Reliance Industries, India’s largest refiner, has reportedly taken a cargo of nearly 2 mn barrels of Venezuelan crude, marking its first such purchase since mid-2025, Bloomberg reports, citing a person familiar with the transaction.

Supply diversification: Indian refiners continue to diversify crude sourcing amid US pressure to halt Russian imports.

Why it matters: For Gulf suppliers, the signal is that India’s shift away from Russian oil does not necessarily allow them greater market share in India’s crude basket as refiners are keen to explore alternative sources.

MEANWHILE: The Kremlin says India can choose to buy crude from any supplier and its diversification is “not new”, after US President Donald Trump announced that New Delhi had agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil and buy more Venezuelan crude. Moscow says it has received no communication from India about stopping Russian oil imports.

Context: India meets about 88% of its crude demand through imports and had been taking in over 2 mn bpd of Russian crude in recent months, although flows eased to about 1.1 mn bpd in January.

ENERGY — Tata Power is evaluating three potential sites across different Indian states for future nuclear power projects, as India prepares to open the sector to private and foreign participation. The assessment follows parliament’s approval in December of a landmark bill that would allow private and foreign companies to enter nuclear power generation, marking a shift in India’s tightly controlled nuclear sector.

Why it matters: The opening of the sector also comes as New Delhi steps up international partnerships in civil nuclear technologies. In January, India and the UAE agreed to explore cooperation in advanced nuclear systems, including large reactors and small modular reactors, as part of a broader energy and technology agenda between the two countries.

Early-stage planning: Tata Power is assessing smaller reactor technologies, including small modular reactors, and is in talks with the Department of Atomic Energy and state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India as well as multiple foreign technology partners.

MONETARY POLICY — The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, as improving trade prospects with the US and Europe eased external pressures on the economy, as per an RBI press release. The RBI’s monetary policy committee unanimously voted today to hold rates, retaining a “neutral” stance that indicates policy stability — halting an aggressive easing cycle that saw 125 basis points in cuts since February 2025.

Why it matters: The de-escalation negotiations with the US along with trade pacts with Oman and EU reduce tariff uncertainty, support export growth, and give the central bank room to pause its easing cycle while focusing on liquidity management and financial stability at home.

While global headwinds intensified, the conclusion of trade agreements augured well for India’s outlook, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said. Inflation remains benign, with full-year averages near 2%, and future policy moves will depend on evolving growth and price dynamics.

What’s next: We keep an eye on the RBI’s April meeting for a full-year inflation forecast.

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Happening next week

India and the US are expected to issue a joint statement on the proposed bilateral trade agreement next week, with the first tranche of the pact almost ready, ANI reports. The joint statement will be signed virtually, while a formal pact is being drafted and is likely to be signed by mid-March. India will begin reducing duties on select American goods after the joint statement, though the first tranche carries no investment commitments.

The big story abroad

The broad selloff hitting AI stocks, crypto, and even safe havens like silver and gold, is capturing everyone’s attention this Friday morning. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, marking its third straight decline, while the Nasdaq saw its deepest decline since last April. Meanwhile, crypto had its worst day in years, falling to its lowest point at USD 63.2k since the crash in 2022 and wiping all of the gains it had made since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Even after markets closed, Amazon plunged 8% on news that it plans to invest USD 200 bn this year alone on data centers, chips, and other equipment.

Concerns that the rout is also extending to debt markets are also starting to mount, with the prices of loans issued by some software firms falling in recent weeks.

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