Good afternoon, friends. The India-UAE corridor is buzzing with activity, with plenty of updates on trade and investments.

India’s competition watchdog has cleared Emirates NBD’s USD 3 bn bid for private lender RBL Bank, paving the way for the biggest foreign acquisition of an Indian bank. If the deal goes through, ENBD will inherit RBL’s branch network to secure a front-row seat in one of the world’s most regulated banking markets.

President Mohamed bin Zayed’s New Delhi visit delivered a host of deals across energy, defence, tech, and food security, and the two countries doubled their trade target to USD 200 bn. Adnoc did the heavy lifting, turning a handshake LNG pact into a binding long-term supply deal.

Over in Saudi Arabia, India’s major tech firms are making strategic inroads, with Tata Group’s tech arm opening its regional HQ and Unicommerce partnering with Naqel Express.

We have all of that and more, below.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — IKEA plans to raise its India investments to over INR 200 bn (USD 2.2 bn) over the next five years, with plans to open new stores and source products locally, Reuters reports, citing IKEA India CEO Patrik Antoni. India is a major sourcing base for the retailer’s major global markets, including its store network in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

India playbook: Ahead of launching new physical stores, IKEA will extend online sales to four cities including Chennai and Coimbatore — the first time the retail giant will enter new markets digitally before establishing a physical presence. It also plans to double production and exports from India to about USD 930 mn.

EXPORTS — India has approved the export of 500k tons of wheat flour, semolina, and related products, in the first significant easing of its grain export ban in over three years, according to a notification by the Ministry of Commerce. This comes amid a record-breaking monsoon that replenished domestic stockpiles.

This is a major win for food suppliers in the UAE, the country being India’s second-largest importer of agricultural products in FY 2022-23. Wheat and rice have historically been the bedrock of this trade corridor. Since the May 2022 ban, UAE millers and processors have had to navigate higher-cost alternatives such as Black Sea grain. Reopening this channel restores the primary supply chain for one of India’s most critical regional trade partners.

A market test? If the upcoming spring harvest hits projected targets, New Delhi can be expected to move towards a more predictable export regime for raw wheat by 2H 2026, further solidifying the India-UAE CEPA trade targets.

GDP —The IMF has raised its India growth forecast for FY 2025-26 (ending on 31 March) by 70 basis points to 7.3%, citing “better-than-expected” data from 3Q and strong momentum closing out the financial year. For Gulf investors, the upgrade reflects real growth in India and encourages deploying capital in the country. India is solidifying its position as the fastest-growing major economy and is likely to offer higher yields as Western markets cool.

The upgrade brings the IMF forecast in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s 7.3% projection and nearly matches the government’s 7.4% estimate.

YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM MENA <> India, your C-suite briefing on the movement of trade, investment, people, and ideas along one of the world’s most exciting corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 2:30 pm UAE, we dive deep into the business, finance, economy, and policy headlines and trendlines that will move markets and set the tone for your day.

Were you forwarded this briefing? Tap or click here to sign up without charge for your owncopy.

The big story abroad

Is “Sell America” back? A massive selloff hit Wall Street last night, as US President Donald Trump stood his ground on plans to take over Greenland despite European opposition.

All three Wall Street indices fell to their lowest since October, with the S&P 500 down 2.1%. At the same time: The USD slid 0.9% against a basket of six peers, gold surged to a record high, and long-term US yields hit a four-month high.

Meanwhile, a historic rout in Japanese bonds sent yields above 4% for the first time ever on concerns over the country’s fiscal health, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for a snap election which could hand her a mandate to pursue stimulus plans, including the removal of a food sales tax.

Adding fuel to the fire: Danish pension fund AkademikerPension said it will exit US Treasuries by the end of the month on the back of concerns that the current administration has created too many credit risks.

What to watch: Trump will be landing in Davos today, where he is set to schedule a few meetings to discuss Greenland.

ALSO- Netflix is tightening its screws in the Warner Bros takeover race: The streamer is converting its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery into an allcash offer, matching one key advantage offered by Paramount Skydance’s Gulf-backed bid, Bloomberg reports, citing a filing. Netflix had previously proposed USD 27.75 per share using a mix of banknotes and stock for Warner’s studio and streaming assets. Investors are set to vote on the transaction in April.

Market watch

Asian refiners are ditching Murban: Abu Dhabi’s flagship crude has lost its edge as cheaper alternatives gain ground across the Asian slate, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. Murban’s premium over Dubai crude hit USD 2.24 / bbl, more than 2x its end‑2025 level, pushing refiners toward cheaper barrels. Upper Zakum, the UAE’s medium-sour grade, was priced at a mere USD 0.10 premium over Dubai after trading at a markdown for most of the past two weeks.

Why the change? This comes as Saudi Arabia ramps up medium-sour supply faster than peers, and refiners in Japan, South Korea, and India lean into Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, alongside Upper Zakum and Qatar’s Al Shaheen, traders said.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Tags: