As Washington sharpens its posture around Russian energy, New Delhi has doubled down on its strategic autonomy. India views Western pressure as a catalyst to strengthen local industry and deepen ties with Middle East partners. In this context, Indian refiners are expected to continue buying Russian crude, despite sanctions on firms including Lukoil and Rosneft, India’s leading energy expert Narendra Taneja told EnterpriseAM.

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The view from New Delhi: Taneja, a distinguished research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, notes that Russian crude itself is not under sanctions. “If they sanction Russian oil, it will be a massive disruption to the global oil supply system, driving prices to USD 120 per barrel,” he observed.

When Indian refiners began buying from Russia, there was no government directive; it was a “purely commercial decision” driven by discounts that were “sometimes as high as USD 20 per barrel.” While some refiners have slowed purchases to mitigate risk, Taneja emphasizes that no firm government directive exists to stop.

Buying continues-

India’s crude oil purchases from Russia jumped to a five-month high in November to 1.77 mn bpd, according to Economic Times and Reuters reports. This followed a brief downturn in October as US sanctions on Lukoil and Roseneft came in. “If Russian exporters can deliver oil to Indian refiners, they will continue to buy,” Taneja said, adding that refiners still find the barrels commercially attractive.

To navigate sanctions on specific firms, refiners may use specialized intermediaries in Dubai and Singapore. “These companies are highly specialized and competent… manned by experts from all over the world,” Taneja said, adding that they maintain long-standing relationships with Indian refiners. He described this as “legal business,” reiterating that sanctions are unilateral rather than UN-imposed. “Once the oil comes into the international system, it loses its nationality,” he said.

The energy partnership with Russia is anchored by significant capital flows. Indian firms have invested USD 18 bn in Russian oil and gas assets. Russian firms have invested USD 13 bn in the Indian oil sector.

The MENA-India energy partnership is strong and long term-

India’s approach remains to diversify supply, even as discounted Russian barrels help manage near-term price sensitivity, Taneja said. He famed this as a demand-supply interdependence: “For India, energy security is securing supply. But for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, energy security is securing demand.”

India’s demand is projected to reach 10 mn bpd by 2050, and Gulf producers are increasingly positioning themselves as long-term partners and investors in India’s refining ecosystem to “lock in” demand.

What to watch in 2026-

The Ukraine peace agreement: A breakthrough would lead to a “complete recalibration” of global supply, potentially lowering prices and reopening Western Europe to Russian flows. In this scenario, Middle East suppliers may offer more competitive deals to attract big importers like India.

Continued sanctions: If the war persists, the US policy stance would remain a key market variable. India will maintain a “dynamic approach,” purchasing from any geography — including the US and Russia — where it finds better commercial terms.

The Middle East floor: Simultaneously, India’s core strategy is to ensure it never “drastically” cuts imports from Middle East partners. Maintaining these flows is a fundamental part of the national energy doctrine.

Refining role-

India is positioning itself as the world’s “refining superpower,” importing crude from around 40 countries and exporting petroleum products to roughly 100 nations. Despite external pressure, New Delhi signals that it “cannot afford to completely stop buying” oil because of pressure from “country X or country Y.”

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