Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a Vision 2030 document to deepen cooperation in trade, energy, defense, space, nuclear power, and connectivity during the annual India-Russia summit, according to a joint press release. The two sides are targeting USD 100 bn in bilateral trade by 2030.

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Here’s what you need to know:

  • Trade: Program 2030 will expand bilateral trade to USD 100 bn, and negotiations will continue on a trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.
  • Bilateral currency settlement: The leaders agreed to continue efforts to use national currencies for trade settlements.
  • Energy: Russia committed to ensuring “uninterrupted shipments of fuel” to India. The two sides agreed to expand collaboration in oil, gas, petrochemicals, nuclear energy, and underground coal gasification.
  • Fertilizers: A long-term fertilizer supply arrangement includes setting up a new urea plant in Russia to bolster supplies to India.
  • Labor: The two will make it easier for skilled Indian workers to take jobs in Russia.
  • Connectivity: They agreed to strengthen the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route, and the Northern Sea Route, and signed MoUs on training specialists on shipping in polar waters.
  • Civil nuclear + space: They agreed on collaboration between the Indian Space Research Organization and Russia’s Roscosmos on human spaceflight and satellite systems as well as support for nuclear projects.
  • Defense: They will conduct joint research and co-develop and co-produce Russian military equipment in India. No major equipment deals were announced.
  • Tourism and people-to-people ties: India announced plans for new e-tourist visas for Russian citizens to boost tourism.
  • Multilateral coordination: The two sides agreed to cooperate in the UN, BRICS, SCO, and G20; Russia is backing India’s bid for a permanent UNSC seat.

What does that all mean?

To make sense of signals from the summit, we dialed Indian expert Nivedita Kapoor, who is based in Moscow, where she’s a senior research fellow at the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The summit outcomes were “on expected lines,” Kapoor told EnterpriseAM, noting that the main emphasis was on economic ties. Since the details of Vision 2030 are not available to the public, she said, “it is difficult to conclude what concrete measures it seeks to reach the target of USD 100 bn, especially if there is a reduction in oil imports.”

Bilateral trade between India and Russia reached USD 68.7 bn in FY 2023-24, largely driven by energy shipments. Trade before the Ukraine conflict in 2022 had stood at around USD 10-11 bn for several years. “The Western cap on Russian oil prices after 2022 actually allowed for large-scale import of Russian oil as Europe sought to distance itself from these supplies, which pushed the trade to over USD 60 bn,” Kapoor told us.

The weak presence of the Indian private sector in the Russian economy has continued, with Indian exports remaining at about USD 4.8 bn and the overall trade still concentrated in a few sectors of the economy, Kapoor noted.

An end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict would ease US pressure, stabilize the Russian economy, and provide a “more conducive environment for India-Russia economic ties,” according to Kapoor.

On crude purchases: New Delhi would prefer to diversify its energy sources, including from Russia, and avoid “any overdependence” on any one country, Kapoor noted. Given the risk of US secondary sanctions, “one would expect a reduction in oil imports from Russia” in the months ahead, adding that future imports will depend on “how strictly the US seeks to monitor and implement sanctions, how willing India is to circumvent these sanctions, and how much risk private companies are willing to take.”

Iran a key piece of the puzzle: For logistics, India wants to promote access to Russia via the INSTC, which passes through Iran, Kapoor highlighted. The limited trade volumes and incomplete infrastructure in Iran have prevented the route from becoming a major corridor, “but efforts remain ongoing, especially with India’s eye on China’s Belt and Road Initiative.”

OUR TAKE-

India’s economic and political ties with the West have expanded significantly over the last two decades, particularly under the Modi government. While embracing Putin may not yield significant long-term economic benefits for the Indian economy, New Delhi is signalling to Washington that it cannot be arm-twisted into any geo-political camp and would like to have its options open, particularly after the Trump administration’s imposition of stinging tariffs. With engagements from Beijing to Brussels to the GCC and the Indo Pacific, Modi is doubling-down on India’s strategic autonomy in a chaotic world order.

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