If it’s the first of the month, it’s time for a hearty helping of macro indicator soup. We’ve got the rundown for you below on everything from industrial output to the PMI, FDI and more. Up first:

Industrial output

India’s industrial output growth slowed significantly to 0.4% in October from 4% in September this year due to fewer working days during the festival-heavy month, data (pdf) from the Statistics Ministry shows. This marks a 3.5 percentage point slowdown in growth compared to October 2024.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

A tale of two trends: Output of infrastructure and construction goods rose 7.1%, capital goods gained 2.4%, and intermediate goods edged up 0.9%. But primary goods contracted 0.6%, consumer durables fell 0.5%, and consumer non-durables dropped 4.4%, indicating weaker discretionary and essentials demand.

Sectorally, manufacturing grew 1.8% on the back of basic metals (6.6%), refined petroleum (6.2%), and motor vehicles (5.8%). Mining declined 1.8%, while electricity output fell 6.9% amid cooler weather and extended rains. Industrial output grew 2.7% in April-October, supported by 3.9% manufacturing growth, flat electricity generation, and a 1.9% mining contraction.

PMI-

India’s manufacturing momentum cooled sharply in November, with the HSBC-S&P Global PMI falling to 56.6 from 59.2 — a nine-month low and below the flash estimate, Reuters reports. The index stayed above 50.0, indicating expansion, but output and new orders saw their weakest growth since February. This deceleration was mainly due to US punitive tariffs, which curbed demand and delayed projects.

Export orders slowed to their weakest rise in over a year, coinciding with a nearly 9% y-o-y drop in US shipments and contributing to a record trade deficit. Business confidence slid to its lowest since mid-2022 as firms faced stiffer competition and decelerated hiring, the newswire added. Moderating input costs provided some relief, with output charges at their weakest since March.

FDI-

Foreign direct investment was up 18% y-o-y in 1H (April to September) FY 2026 to USD 35.1 bn, according to government data released on Monday. FDI inflows in 2Q (June to September) increased by 21% y-o-y to USD 16.5 bn.

Singapore was the largest source of FDI for 1H, delivering USD 11.9 bn. Inflows from the US more than doubled in 1H to USD 6.6 bn despite tensions in bilateral relations triggered by steep tariffs imposed by Washington. Investments from Mauritius were valued at USD 3.47 bn and from the UAE at USD 2.3 bn.

Government seeks additional funds-

The Finance Ministry has sought parliamentary approval for INR 414.5 bn (USD 4.62 bn) in net additional spending this fiscal year to fulfil administrative and subsidy needs, according to the ministry’s supplementary demands for grants (pdf). Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed INR 41.03 bn (USD 460 mn) for defense procurement and capital needs, alongside INR 125 bn (USD 1.4 bn) to compensate state-owned energy firms for cooking gas subsidies and INR 110 bn (USD 1.2 bn) for fertilizer imports. The rest of the proceeds will go to administrative expenses. The request comes on top of the budgeted USD 566 bn expenditure for the fiscal year ending in March 2026.

Monetary Policy forecast-

State-owned lender Bank of Baroda forecasts that the Reserve Bank of India will keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance in its 5 December policy review, analysts at Bank of Baroda write. The lender predicts a continuity in growth momentum in 3Q — following a 8.2% growth rate in 2Q FY 2026 — on the back of strong urban consumption, rural demand, and a gradual pickup in private investment.

The bank expects tamed inflation, well below the central bank’s estimates, following a record low of 0.25% in October. Despite the space for a rate cut, Baroda forecasts the RBI is likely to maintain a cautious stance as economic growth remains robust and US tariff driven headwinds could require monetary easing in future reviews.

Tags: