Good morning, friends, and happy Monday to you all. We have a light issue for you this morning led by India’s roaring GDP growth, signaling the country’s ability to weather the global trade storm thanks to both strong growth momentum and the ongoing reform cycle.

And the central bank looks set to lend a helping hand: It’s withdrawing or consolidating as many as 9.4k old regulatory circulars in favor of 244 so-called “master directions” that aim to make it easier for banks (and everyone else) to do business.

The IMF is taking notice: India got a clean bill of health as so-called Article IV consultations wrapped last week, projecting 6.6% growth for FY2025-2026 The fund is explicitly baking-in a baseline of “prolonged 50% US tariffs.” With inflation cooling thanks to GST reforms and benign food prices, the Fund suggests the RBI may even have room to ease policy if those tariffs persist. The catch: Fiscal discipline remains the watchword, and the leap to “advanced economy” status hinges on structural reforms — getting more women into the workforce, tightening up labor markets, and investing in R&D and innovation, the IMF said in a statement.

ALSO THIS MORNING- India and the US are eyeing a trade agreement by year-end, if all goes well. Avaada Group says it will invest INR 1 tn (USD 11.2 bn) in the green energy sector. Adani is planning a USD 5 bn investment in AI infrastructure owned by Google.

AND- E-commerce giants are set to challenge banks on their turf. The IT sector, however, may have to wait until 2027 for recovery.

^^ We have all of that and more, below.

MEANWHILE- It’s quiet in the GCC this morning as the UAE observes a four-day weekend in honor of its national day. Folks across the Emirates will be back to work on Wednesday, 3 December.

Have your eye on opportunities in Saudi Arabia? Riyadh is the place to be, EnterpriseAM Saudi reports this morning:

  • Gigaproject spending is pivoting to Riyadh as spending on Neom and The Line slows. But at USD 1.65 tn, the project pipeline in Saudi still remains nearly equal to the rest of the region combined.
  • Analysts see the Saudi economy growing c. 5% in 2026 and consumer sentiment remained high in November, signaling continued optimism.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The winter session of parliament kicks off today and concludes on Friday, 19 December in New Delhi. Lawmakers will take up 19 bills during the session, including key business-friendly reforms on which we had the rundown last week.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- India and the US are looking to finalize a trade agreement by year-end, Economic Times reports, citing Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal. The two countries have resolved most issues and can settle remaining gaps at the political level, he said, as India awaits Washington’s formal response on the first phase of the trade package.

Tariffs are also on the table: Parallel negotiations are ongoing to unwind tariffs imposed under the Trump administration, including 25% duties and a further 25% levy linked to Russian crude purchases. New Delhi is seeking lower tariffs for textiles, leather, gems and jewelry, plastics, chemicals, shrimps, oilseeds, grapes, and bananas, while Washington reportedly wants concessions on industrial goods, EVs, petrochemicals, wines, dairy, and genetically modified crops.

#2- Amazon + Flipkart are coming for India’s banks: E-commerce giants Amazon and Walmart-backed Flipkart are preparing to offer direct loans to small businesses and consumers in a move that challenges the country’s traditional lenders, Reuters reports.

The details: After acquiring Bengaluru-based non-bank lender Axio earlier this year, Amazon is now pivoting the unit to offer credit and liquidity management solutions to small businesses. Flipkart registered its own lending arm — Flipkart Finance — in March and is awaiting final approval from the Reserve Bank of India. The Walmart subsidiary will offer buy now, pay later services to its customers.

Why now? The expansion follows a regulatory green light from the RBI earlier this year allowing foreign-backed tech firms to lend directly to customers through wholly-owned units.

#3- Indian conglomerate Adani Group plans to invest as much as USD 5 bn in Google’s upcoming AI infrastructure hub in southern India, Bloomberg reports, quoting CFO Jugeshinder Singh. The investment, still being finalized, builds on a partnership announced last month between Adani Enterprises — via joint venture AdaniConneX — and Google parent company Alphabet Inc.

#4- Tokyo-based Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is looking to expand its lending and staff size in India after deploying roughly USD 5 bn over the last four years to secure positions in fast-growing financial segments, Bloomberg reports. The Japanese lender has assembled stakes across retail and wholesale platforms, including a controlling interest in Fullerton India (now SMFG India Credit) and a 20% holding in Yes Bank in September.

India’s commercial banking industry is the “last missing piece” in SMFG’s “multi-franchise” strategy across Asia, India division head Rajeev Kannan told the news outlet. The bank is investing in operational capacity with a new global capability center in Chennai. It’s also targeting growth in financing for infrastructure projects and has appetite to lend to private equity firms for acquisitions and leverage.

Context: SMFG’s push comes as the institution faces sharp global competition from banks like FAB and HSBC — and as Emirates NBD pushes into the Indian market.

REMEMBER- Last year, Emirates NBD and a Sumitomo subsidiary were in the raceto acquirea majority stake in Yes Bank from India’s largest lender, State Bank of India. The agreement later fell through.

#5- Gift City mulls longer tax holiday for jet lessors: India is considering extending its tax holiday for aircraft-leasing firms operating in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City) to 15 years, up from the current 10, Bloomberg reports. The extension is expected to appear in February’s budget proposals and aims to attract a larger share of the USD 187 bn global aircraft-leasing industry, currently dominated by Ireland.

Gift City is home to 33 aircraft lessors, collectively leasing over 60 aircraft and a similar number of engines as of 31 January, according to a KPMG report (pdf).

Growth outlook: India’s commercial aircraft-leasing market was valued at INR 392 bn (USD 4.7 bn) in 2023 and is expanding at 11.8% annually, according to Cognitive Market Research.

YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM MENA <> India, your C-suite briefing on the movement of trade, investment, people, and ideas along one of the world’s most exciting corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 9am UAE, we dive deep into the business, finance, economy, and policy headlines and trendlines that will move markets and set the tone for your day.

Were you forwarded this briefing? Tap or click here to sign up without charge for your owncopy.

DATA POINTS-

#1-India clinched the 38th spot among 139 economies on the Global Innovation Index (GII) 2025, climbing from 81 in 2015, according to the World Intellectual Property Organization’s latest GII report (pdf). This is the country’s strongest ranking yet as it leads both the Central and Southern Asia region and the lower-middle-income group. Bengaluru was India’s top-ranked innovation cluster, coming in at 21 among global peers, followed by Delhi at 26.

#2- India’s food-services market is forecast to exceed USD 125 bn by 2030, with the organized segment projected to grow at twice the pace of the unorganized sector, Business Standard reports, citing Swiggy’s How India Eats report.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global business press, with no single story dominating the headlines. Here’s what you need to know:

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants a presidential pardon in his ongoing corruption trial, citing the “public interest” in ending the case. (Reuters)
  • OpenAI’s lead is under pressure as rivals including Google and Anthropic start to close the gap. (Financial Times)
  • OPEC+ plans to pause output hikes in 1Q 2026 amid growing signs there’s surplus oil in global markets. (Bloomberg)

And India’s “biggest labor law shake-up in decades” is getting the front-page treatment in the Financial Times in a piece largely anchored in the concerns of labor leaders and small businesses. Check out our rundown for more.

Tags: