Good morning, friends. It’s one thing to call for reforms — another to manage (and pay for) the implementation costs when it finally comes. That’s the theme running through our first issue of the week, which opens with a deep dive into the Modi government’s long-awaited labor reforms. Big business is largely happy, but labor unions are grumbling and entrepreneurs warn that small and midsized businesses will need some breathing room.

Meanwhile, a policy expert warns that the digital data privacy act will raise compliance and operational costs for businesses in India — particularly for small businesses. And we have an exclusive story about an Indian startup that says it can make the cost of compliance more bearable for Gulf-based financial services businesses.

ALSO TODAY- Adani has completed offloading a stake in AWL Agri Business, while Jindal group is nearing an agreement to acquire Raigarh Champa Rail Infrastructure and Axis Bank is set to raise INR 50 bn in a strategic push.

^^ We have all of that and more, below.

SIGN OF THE TIMES-

Banks and refineries in India and China are starting to comply with US sanctions on Russia’s two main oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, Reuters reports, citing a senior US Treasury official.

These institutions are “risk-averse” and mindful of maintaining access to Western financial systems, the official said, adding that both countries are reassessing their exposure after last month’s sanctions targeting revenue Moscow allegedly uses to fund the war effort in Ukraine.

REMEMBER- Reliance pulled the plug on Russian imports last week, switching away from Moscow’s crude for its export-oriented facility.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- India’s core sectors ran into a wall in October. The eight key infrastructure industries that together make up 40% of the industrial production index posted zero growth, their weakest showing in 14 months, government data shows.

  • The drag: Gains in steel and cement were wiped out by a sharp contraction in energy (coal, oil, gas, power).
  • The silver lining: Manufacturing likely held firm thanks to festive demand, ICRA’s Aditi Nayar notes, according to remarks picked up by the Hindu.
  • What it means: Expect broader industrial growth (IIP) to slide to c. 2.5–3.5% (down from 4% in September) when the full data drops. The takeaway? It’s a supply-side glitch (mining / power), not a demand collapse — construction activity is still moving.

#2- Kezad locks in AED 1.1 bn in Indian manufacturing pledges. AD Ports’ Kezad Group has signed land-lease agreements with Indian heavyweights Jindal Saw and Haldiram, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

  • Jindal Saw is investing AED 1 bn to build a 400k sqm seamless steel pipe plant in Kezad Musaffah. The facility targets 300k tons of annual output of steel pipes and tubes for the oil and gas export market.
  • Haldiram Snacks, India’s largest sweets and snacks manufacturer, is setting up its first regional hub, a 114k sqm facility in Kezad Al Ma’mourah that will house 11 production lines for the Indian sweets giant.

#3- Mumbai-based private-sector lender Axis Bank will raise up to INR 50 bn (USD 559 mn) through a private placement of debt securities, Reuters reports. The fundraising includes INR 20 bn (USD 224 mn) in debentures and an additional INR 30 bn (USD 335 mn) via a green-shoe option. The bank hasn’t offered a timeline for the transaction.

Context: Axis Bank’s board voted in April to raise INR 350 bn (USD 3.91 bn) via debt and another INR 200 bn worth of equity.

#4- Rajasthan says “no” to 3.2 GW of new coal. The Rajasthan Electricity Regulatory Commission (RERC) has rejected a bid to build four coal-fired plants, ruling that the expansion contradicts India’s green transition and isn’t supported by future demand, according to a regulatory order. RERC is the primary regulator for the central indian state, which is already home to 35.4 GW of renewable capacity.

The details: State-run Rajasthan Urja Vikas and IT Services wanted approval ten tender for four coal power plants of 800 MW each. RERC ruled that the idea wasn’t consistent with the national government’s resource plan, which projects the state will need only 1.9 GW of new coal power capacity through 2036.

The ruling warns that long-term coal contracts would lock-in costly power for 25 years, burdening consumers with high bills, undermining the transition to renewables, and significantly worsening air quality by burning an estimated 40k tonnes of coal daily.

Why this matters: It’s a rare instance of a state regulator curbing thermal expansion while peers are still rushing to coal to meet base-load demand.

#5- Two Indian companies have been snarled in the US Department latest sanctions on what it calls Iran’s “shadow oil networks,” ANI reports. Among the 17 additions to the list are RN Ship Management and TR6 Petro India LLP, which Foggy Bottom accused of helping move Iranian crude and petroleum products. Washington is aiming to curb revenue that it says funds Iran’s nuclear program, military activity, and regional allies.

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DATA POINTS-

iPhone exports from India reached 3.4 mn units in October, a 40% m-o-m growth compared to September sales and a 20% y-o-y increase, Hindu Businessline reports. The US is the primary export destination, commanding a 61% share of total volume. The UAE accounted for some 704k units. Overall, India exported 6.63 mn smartphones, marking a 26% m-o-m rise.

REMEMBER- Apple recorded USD 9 bn in domestic sales in India in FY 2024-25, with one in five iPhones sold globally coming from its manufacturing plants here, according to Business Standard.

MARKET WATCH-

JPMorgan is bullish on India: JPMorgan Private Bank favors rotating towards Indian equities over Chinese stocks, citing stronger domestic demand and policy support in India despite higher valuations, Bloomberg reports. The shift comes after Indian benchmarks have trailed major Asian peers this year, even as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged to a four-year high.

The “window” to move into India “is still open,” said Timothy Fung, the bank’s head of Asia equity strategy, citing expectations of 6-7% GDP growth and double-digits earnings expansion. He noted that India’s relative underperformance this year has created an entry point for JPMorgan.

The bank framed the view as a valuation-based rotation rather than a change in its broader outlook on China.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The latest US proposal to end the war in Ukraine is dominating headlines this morning. US and Ukrainian officials who met yesterday in Geneva said they made progress on a new version of the controversial 28-point plan that would have seen Ukraine acquiesce to most of Russia’s territorial and military demands. It’s still unclear what issues have been resolved during the talks, which come at a difficult moment for Kyiv after slowly losing ground against Russia in a number of key regions. (Reuters | Financial Times | Bloomberg)

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

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