Breaking down non-oil private sector performance in the UAE + Lebanon: Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) tracking non-energy sectors posted an expansion in both economies in November, recording readings above the 50 mark for a healthy growth threshold.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

UAE-

The UAE’s non-oil private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in 11 months in November, marking a solid improvement in activity, boosted by favorable market conditions and increased business intakes. The country’s seasonally adjusted S&P Global PMI (pdf) hit a nine-month high of 54.8 in November, up from 53.8 a month earlier. November’s reading lands just above the 54.3 survey long-run average.

New orders picked up in November to hit their highest level in 11 months, with the surveyed businesses citing robust market conditions leading to an increase in client orders, which have also supported the upturn for many sectors. Further, firms attributed the strong sales volumes to product innovation, market diversification, and technological advances. The new orders subindex reached 57.4 in November, from a 56.0 reading last month, according to Reuters.

Business activity accelerated to 61.6 in November from 58.6 a month earlier, marking the joint-fastest rate in over 18 months, similar to last December’s strong readings, according to NBD.

Employment rose to its highest levels in a year and a half during the month, but at a slow rate. The overall increase in employment came on the back of elevated sales, with firms highlighting further intensified capacity pressures due to “delays in settling payments related to previous work,” according to the report.

Purchasing activity surged for the third month in a row, but firms consumed inputs at a faster rate, marking the fourth reduction in stocks in five months. Surveyed firms reported maintaining an adequate level of inventory for their sales pipelines, while showing high confidence in accurate delivery times.

Input costs soared to mark their steepest increase since September 2024, mainly due to the rise in wage costs, which soared to their highest levels seen in over eight years. “The sharper rise in employment was accompanied by a steeper increase in wage costs, as firms cited the need to raise salaries in response to cost-of-living pressures and skill shortages,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote in the report.

Meanwhile, output prices saw a moderate rise during November, outpacing the previous two months.

Business sentiment: Confidence rebounded from October’s dip, with more than 13% of firms anticipating greater output levels in 2026, while around 1% of participants forecast a drop for the coming year. The upbeat sentiment is boosted by an anticipated increase in sales accompanied by positive market conditions.

LEBANON-

The Lebanese non-oil private sector continued its expansion in November, marking its fourth month in the green territory, according to Blominvest Bank’s Lebanon PMI (pdf). The country’s headline PMI increased to 51.3 from 50.6 recorded in October. The uptick was attributed to increased new orders and a rise in demand, which led to higher levels of output and employment.

New orders soared at their quickest pace, seeing records matching September’s peak, with new export orders rising for the first time since February. Business activity accelerated from October’s records, marking its fourth in a while, with new business inflows surging from demand pressures to further accelerate output levels in November.

Employment levels continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace from October’s exceptional readings. As a result, work backlogs increased during the month, signaling restrained resources, yet the rate of accumulation was modest, according to the report.

Purchasing activity picked up in November, with a surge in stocks amid slowed delivery times from suppliers, yet “the extent of the delays was minimal.”

Input cost inflation also surged during the month as surveyed members cited increases in prices of metals, import costs, customs duties, and shipping fees, leading to an overall increase in purchase prices. However, output inflation eased for the first time in three months.

Sentiment hasn’t rebounded, despite data showing a rise in confidence levels as security concerns outweigh the positive outlook. “Still, amid these challenges, Beirut One [Lebanon’s investor conference] kept hopes for reforms and international support alive, with talks with the IMF pointing to a possible [agreement] in the near future,” Blominvest Bank’s General Manager Fadi Osseiran wrote in the report.

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