We’re in a global freight recession, industry experts say

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What we're tracking today

TODAY: Global freight recession is here to stay, survey says + Denmark is planning to launch green shipping corridors at COP28

Good morning, friends. We close out the week with a compact issue, with the final string of agreements coming out of Egypt’s TransMEA transport expo and a few updates from across the region.

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY-Iraq’s Transport Ministry is planning to build 30 train stations for freight and passengers across 11 governorates as part of its USD 17 bn Development Road Project, with 15 slated for freight transport.

^^ We have everything on this story and more in the news well, below.

HAPPENING TODAY-

TheIntra-African Trade Fair kicks off today in Cairo, Egypt, and runs until 15 November at the Egypt International Exhibition Centre and Al Manara International Conference Centre in Cairo, Egypt. The event — which takes place in collaboration with African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), the African Union and the AfCFTA Secretariat — will showcase goods, services, and investments from African countries, with the goal of establishing efficient channels for trade between African countries.

The global freight recession is expected to continue into 2024, according to a supply chain survey by CNBC. Some expect no growth in the freight market in the first two quarters of 2024, but hope volumes increase in the second half, including CEO of OL USA Alan Baer. Soft pricing in the shipping sector is expected to continue in 2024, and could even remain in 2025, he added.

Details: Ocean freight prices for Q1 and Q2 are expected to go unchanged or drop from 2023 rates. Air freight prices are also expected to remain the same or drop anywhere from 10% to 20%. Officials from the trucking sector expect lower freight orders and revenues as well as a “sluggish” retail peak season. Half of the respondents say they expect rates for full truck loads to remain unchanged or go down, and 33% predict a marginal rise of 5%.

The silver lining: Industry players expect a mild turnaround in freight volumes in 2H 2024, with 50% of respondents expecting a 5% increase and 33% expecting a 10% increase.

What’s next? Uber Freight’s CEO Lior Ron stressed that less diversified business models will be unable to operate on a cost-effective basis. This week, with the slowed cargo demand, FedEx told its pilots to look for additional work with American Airlines, Bloomberg reports, and Maersk has announced plans to slash 10k jobs.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Denmark plans to launch green shipping corridors initiative at COP: Copenhagen-based independent research and development center Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping is planning to make “substantial” contributions to COP28 activities, with a focus on moving forward with plans to build green shipping corridors across Europe, CEO and CSO of the center Tanja Dalgaard said in an interview with UAE’s Iris Media.

DP World is involved: The center will collaborate with DP World and other partners to bring the green corridor initiatives to life, Dalgaard said. Lenders including the International Monetary Fund recently identified a strong need for multilateral cooperation on trade policies to safeguard the global goals of averting climate change, which can be achieved through green corridors.

We have a rough timeline for the projects: Dalgaard unveiled that the first methanol ship is expected to be operational by 2026 and the first ammonia ship by 2028. However, smaller green corridors focused on specific regions and fuels will be launched sooner.

Egypt will eventually be linked to Europe’s corridors: Last month, Egypt signed a framework agreement with C2X — which is owned by AP Moller Holding and AP Moller-Maersk — worth some USD 3 bn for the production of green methanol and its derivatives. This is part of a larger plan to reach an annual production output of over 3 mn tons by 2030 by pursuing large-scale green methanol projects near the Suez Canal in Egypt and the port of Huelva in Spain, among several other planned locations.

HELP SUPPORT GAZANS-

Want to support relief efforts in Gaza, but don’t know how? We’ve got you. More than a mn people in Gaza have been thrown from their homes and every human being there lacks access to food, water, and fuel amid the most intense bombardment any population has endured this century. The charities we’re listing below are organizations working on Gaza relief that we think you can trust if you want to make a donation.

#1- Egyptian Red Crescent Society is one of the Egypt’s leading providers of humanitarian and emergency medical services. The Egypt Red Crescent accepts donations in EGP online and is on Fawry with the service code 99981. You can also donate to the organization through this Banque du Caire account: 49/403/30 (EGP) or 1065/601/30 (USD — code: BCAIEGCX030).

#2- The Emirates Red Crescent Authority has launched the Tarahum — For Gaza campaign and is accepting donations online via What’s App, SMS, Apple Pay, credit card, or bank transfer to ADIB (AE370500000000020000417).

#3-The King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Center has launched the Sahem campaign accepting donations via their website, mobile apps on Apple Store and Google Play, or bank transfer to Al Rajhi Bank (SA5580000504608018899998).

#4- UNICEF has been on the ground in Gaza since the start of the crisis, providing urgent supplies and aid. You can donate to the agency directly using your card in your local currency here.

ALSO- The folks at Talabat are processing donations for a range of Gaza relief appeals by charities including the Egyptian Food Bank, Misr El Kheir and the Emirates Red Crescent Authority’s Tarahum campaign. You can make the donation via the Talabat app using your credit card.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The China International Import Expo will take place from 5 to 10 November at the National Convention and Exhibition Centre, Shanghai, China. The event aims to expand international trade and facilitate greater access to the Chinese market. KSA’s Ports Authority has announced that Mawani, represented by Jeddah Islamic Port, will be attending the conference to showcase Saudi ports, according to a statement.

TheGCC-Türkiye Economic Forum will kick off on 11-13 November at Çırağan Palace Kempinski Hotel in Istanbul, Turkey. The forum will allow the GCC and Turkey to explore potential areas of cooperation, increase bilateral trade, and establish networks for joint projects, according to the forum website. The event will feature a number of Turkish and GCC speakers and panelists from sectors including trade, investment, industry and logistics, infrastructure, agriculture and food, and sports.

The third Caspian Economic Forum will be held in mid-November in Iran, state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency reports. The event is set to focus on transportation, joint ventures, oil and gas, finance, banking and technical cooperation in Iran, with Alireza Jahangiri, Iran’s deputy foreign caspian sea affairs minister, calling on economic institutions to attend, IRNA adds. The exact location and dates of the forum have yet to be confirmed.

The Dubai Air Show will be held from 13-17 November at DWC, at the Dubai Airshow site, in Dubai. The event will feature over 180 aircraft including business jets, drones, commercial airlines, military jets, helicopters, and electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The event will also gather decision makers to discuss the latest trends and challenges across the aviation industry, and how to drive sustainable aviation operations.

The Supply Chain & Logistics Arabia summit is set to take place on 14-15 November at Narcissus in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The event will feature several panel discussions on matters including the future of supply chain, digitalisation and technology, procurement, warehouses, distribution and fulfillment, and last mile issues.

The IATA Slot Conference is set to take place on 14-17 November at the Dubai World Trade Centre in Dubai, UAE. The business meeting will host over 1k delegates, with representatives of more than 200 slot coordinated airports and over 225 airlines from across the world. The event allows the global airline community to meet for quick optimisation of planned schedules and to explore chances for growing routes and networks.

The Global Freight Summit 2023 will be taking place on 15-17 November at the Coca Cola Arena, Dubai, UAE. Hosted by DP World, the event aims to create a platform for the international freight forwarding and supply chain communities, bringing together industry leaders and the global freight community to discuss challenges that are prevalent across the sector. The event will be held under the theme Making the Future Supply Chain a Reality, with the aim of exploring how industry stakeholders can take action to face these challenges.

The first GCC-Egyptian Business Forum will be held on 22-23 November in Cairo, Egypt, Bahrain News Agency reports. The event is being held under the theme Business, Investment, Partnership, with a focus on investment opportunities in real estate, agriculture, the food industry, and tourism in the region. The event is hosted by the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce and organized in cooperation with the Federation of Gulf Cooperation Council.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

Iraq to build 30 train stations for the USD 17 bn Development Road project

Iraq’s Transport Ministry is planning to build 30 train stations for freight and passengers as part of its USD 17 bn Development Road Project , Transport Minister Razzak Al Saadawi announced at the seventh edition of the Iraqi Ambassadors Conference, according to a statement. Some 15 stations will be dedicated to freight transport, while 15 will be dedicated to passengers, Al Sadawi said, adding that they will be distributed across 11 governorates.

We’re still in the planning stage: Almost 50% of the rail and motorway designs have been completed, Saadawi said, adding that the feasibility study for the project has already been approved.

But the ministry has fleshed out plans for the dual highway: The dual highway, which will start from the Faw port and will be linked to Turkey via the Faysh Khabur on the northern border of the Kurdistan region in Iraq.

And some of the fine print for the railway: The speed for the passengers’ train will reportedly be 300 km per hour, while freight trains will run at some 140 km per hour, Saadawi added. The trains are also set to be electric, the statement adds.

Refresher: Iraq’s ambitious USD 17 bn Development Road project aims to link its planned Grand Faw Port in Iraq’s southern Basra province to Turkey in the north through rail and road infrastructure in a bid to rival Egypt’s Suez Canal.

Egypt inks more agreements to boost maritime + logistics sectors

Final day of TransMEA 2023 sees Egypt ink more cooperation agreements for logistics: The Egyptian TransportMinistry secured more agreements on the last day of TransMEA 2023 transport expo in Cairo in a bid to develop logistics ports, according to several statements (here and here). The nation also signed agreements to establish development programs to improve competence in the maritime and land transport sectors.

#1- Port management cooperation: The Egyptian Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport signed a cooperation protocol with the United Group for Development in Mauritania to increase cooperation in the field of maritime transport with African countries, including through managing a port in Mauritania, the statement said.

#2- Logistics projects: Egypt-based Transport Information Technology Company (TransIT) inked an MoU with Germany’s Bosch and the Norwegian IT firm Cypod for logistics projects within ports, including tracking container movement and implementing security systems.

#3- Capacity training: TransIT Information Technology Company (TransIT) inked cooperation protocols with Egypt University of Informatics and Modern Academy to train calibers and eventually employ them at TransIT, the statement said.

ICYMI- Egypt has inked more than 20 agreements to boost its maritime, logistics and land transport sectors during TransMEA. The agreements included new port and logistics zone management contracts, agreements with local and international firms to localize the manufacturing for our transport sector and completing national transport projects like the metro, the bus rapid transit system, and the light rapid transit system.

Aramex sees net income fall 76% y-o-y in the face of currency and macroeconomic challenges

Aramex’s net income fell againin 3Q 2023: UAE-based logistics provider Aramex’ s net income fell 76% y-o-y to AED 9.6 mn in 3Q 2023, attributed to heightened interest costs related to the USD 265 mn acquisition of Florida-based MyUS, according to an earnings release (pdf). The normalized net income — excluding the FX impact and finance loan expenses — fell 23% y-o-y decline to AED 30.4 mn during the quarter. The company’s revenues during the period fell 5% y-o-y to AED 1.35 bn amid currency fluctuations, macroeconomic challenges, and subdued global retail activity in some of its markets, according to the release.

The breakdown: Its freight forwarding division saw revenues fall 16% y-o-y to AED 367.9 mn during the quarter, while its logistics and supply solutions division witnessed a 5% y-o-y decline to AED 104.8 mn. Revenues reported for its domestic express services also fell 5% y-o-y to AED 352.6 mn on the back of currency fluctuations, according to the release. The international express unit — including revenues from MyUS — was the only division that saw revenues grow 4% y-o-y to AED 511.9, due to improvements in linehaul costs, cost optimization measures, and consolidation with MyUS.

The good news: The GCC is a strong market. The GCC region is continuing to see an increase in consumer spending, the company said, adding that it saw a 21% y-o-y increase in gross income during the quarter.

Looking ahead: “Our primary focus will be to deliver outstanding services to customers,” by continuing to enhance trade lanes across all business lines, and focus on “B2B, direct brands,

SMEs, and premium offerings such as same and next-day deliveries,” Aramex CEO Othman Al Jeda said.

Seventeen logistics firms received awards at the UAE’s Landmarks in Logistics 2023 + Milaha gets recognition for worker safety

The UAE’s Landmarks in Logistics Awards 2023 has awarded 17 regional logistics companies for their work in logistics and supply chains. Award criteria is based on a range of corporate activities including, business projects, annual performance, innovations, and company initiatives, according to Logistics Gulf. The awards include:

#1- Eight of the firms snagging awards are Emirati:

iMileDeliverywas named the Last Mile Delivery Provider of the Year;
Global Shipping Logistics was awarded FMCG Logistics Specialist of the Year;
Jebel Ali Freezone was awarded Integrated Logistics and Freezone of the Year;
Trukkin Transport & Freight Broker was awarded Valuable Transport Company of the Year;
Swisslog Middle Eastwas awarded Warehouse Automation Systems Provider of the Year;
A-SAFE DWCwas awarded Industry Safety Provider of the Year;
DP Worldwas awarded Sea Port/Maritime Hub of the Year;
and Global Shipping & Logistics was awarded Cold Chain Services Provider of the Year.

#2- Four are from Saudi Arabia:

LogiPointwas awarded Warehouse Facility of the Year;
LinX Arabiawas awarded Logistics/Supply Chain Start-up of the Year;
SAL Saudi Arabia Logistics Serviceswas awarded 3PL Freight Forwarder of the Year and E-Commerce Platform of the Year;
and Jeddah Islamic Port (Mawani) was awarded Advanced Port Infrastructure of the Year.

Also among the awardees: Qatar-based Milahawas awarded CSR/Sustainability Initiatives of the Year; MEA TLS Group’s Founder & CEO Houyam Haidar was awarded Woman Leader in Logistics/Supply Chain of the Year; FedExwas awarded Logistics Provider of the Year; Fero AIwas awarded AI Provider in Logistics of the Year; and Savoyewas awarded Technology Services Provider of the Year.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING-

Qatar Navigation (Milaha)has secured the worker’s welfare award at the Shell Contractor Partner Safety Forum. (Statement)

Iran and Afghanistan want to boost trade to USD 10 bn + Iran, Cuba eye stronger trade ties

Iran, Afghanistan eye ways to boost trade to USD 10 bn a year: Iranian Economic Adviser of the Iranian President’s Special Envoy in Afghanistan Mohammad-Mehdi Javanmard-Ghassab and Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Commerce and Industry Nooruddin Azizi discussed ways to boost bilateral trade to USD 10 bn annually, semi-official news agency Mehr reports.. They also discussed improving ties in mining, agriculture, and transit.

The two countries are also exploring increasing flights: Iranian Roads and Urban Development Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash also held talks with Afghan Transport and Civil Aviation Minister Hamidullah Akhundzada to enhance transport ties, state news agency IRNA reports. That includes increasing flights between the countries and boosting aviation export services.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING-

IranianDeputy Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Farshad Moghimi and CubanForeign Trade and Investment Minister Ricardo Cabrisas met to discuss expanding trade between their two countries. (Tasnim)

Sanad launches region’s first LEAP engine MRO center + GWC to offer QDB MSME clients with logistics services. PLUS: More regional flights

AVIATION-

UAE’s Sanad Aerotech launches the region’s first certified LEAP engine MRO center: Mubadala’s aerospace engineering and leasing solution provider Sanad has inaugurated a maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) center for CFM International’s LEAP engines, which power Airbus A32neo and Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, reports Trade Arabia. The center, which covers over 5k sqm, aims to increase servicing capabilities for LEAP engines, providing regional operators the ability to reduce their carbon footprint associated with transportation of engines outside the region, according to Managing Director and Group CEO of Sanad Mansoor Janahi.

STORAGE + WAREHOUSING-

GWC + QDB ink cooperation agreement to support MSMEs: Qatari logistics and supply chain solutions provider GWC and Qatar Development Bank (QDB) have inked a cooperation agreement to support micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), according to a press release. Under the agreement, GWC will offer businesses linked to QDB a preferential rate for their logistics solutions, as well as accommodation solutions and logistics consultation, while facilitating a holistic offering for QDB clients who work in export services, the release adds.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING-

Wizz Air Abu Dhabi is launching flights from Abu Dhabi to Turkestan, Kazakhstan starting 1 February 2024. (Statement)
Privately-owned Moldovan airline FlyOne has launched thrice-weekly flights from Chisinau to Dubai, UAE. (Statement)

Calendar

NOVEMBER

Mid-November: Third Caspian Economic Forum, Iran.

September-November: Emirates Postal Group’s “Logistics Unleashed” competition, UAE.

9-10 November (Sunday-Friday): China International Import Expo conference, Shanghai, China.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo, Egypt.

11-13 November (Saturday-Monday): GCC-Türkiye Economic Forum, Çırağan Palace Kempinski Hotel, Istanbul, Turkey.

13-17 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Dubai World Center, UAE.

15-17 November (Wednesday-Friday): Global Freight Summit 2023, Coca Cola Arena, Dubai, UAE.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Supply Chain & Logistics Arabia, Narcissus, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

14-17 November (Tuesday-Friday): IATA Slot Conference, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai, UAE.

15 November (Wednesday): Leaders in Logistics UAE Summit, Dubai, UAE.

17-18 November (Friday-Saturday): 17th Iran-Turkmenistan Joint Economic Commission, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

21-23 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Intermobility Expo 2023, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai, UAE.

21-23 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East, Gulf Hotel, Bahrain.

21-23 November (Tuesday-Thursday): ARABAL 2023 Conference, Hilton Riyadh Hotel & Residences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 November (Wednesday-Thursday): GCC-Egyptian Business Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

23 November (Thursday): Global Supply Chain and Logistics Summit, Grand Millennium Hotel Business Bay, Dubai, UAE.

30 November-3 December (Saturday-Tuesday): Handling Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

September-November: Emirates Postal Group’s “Logistics Unleashed” competition, UAE.

DECEMBER

4-6 December (Monday-Wednesday): ACE 23 Air Cargo Conference, Yas Island Hotel, Abu Dhabi, UAE

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) exhibition, Tehran Permanent International Fairgrounds, Tehran, Iran.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): Invest in Logistics, St.Regis Almasa Hotel, New Administrative Capital, Egypt.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Cairo 2023, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo, Egypt.

18-20 December (Monday-Wednesday): International Exhibition of Transportation, Logistics, and Related Industries (Iran Trans Expo 2023), Imam Khomeini Grand Prayer Campus (Mossala), Tehran, Iran.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2023:Construction of Neom’s first hydrogen fueling station will kick off.

2H 2023: Expansion of Baghdad International Airport to begin.

3Q 2023: Design and supervision contract for Oman’s proposed Musandam Airport to be awarded.

Before the end of the year: The first phase of the Ain Sokhna port redevelopment will wrap.

2024

1Q 2024: Construction of phase 3 of Agility’s logistic park in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire to be completed.

1Q 2024: Egypt’s Transport Ministry to launch pre-qualification tender for Cairo-Alex freight railway.

1H 2024: Civil Construction subcontracts for construction firms in Oman for implementation of the Abu Dhabi – Suhar rail link to be announced.

King Salman Energy Park is set to become operational in 2024

FEBRUARY 2024

13th World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

12-13 February (Monday-Tuesday): Breakbulk Middle East conference, Dubai Trade Centre, UAE.

12-15 February (Monday-Thursday): African Air Expo, Cape Town, South Africa.

28 February-1 March (Wednesday-Friday): MENA Transport Congress and Exhibition 2024, Dubai, UAE.

MARCH 2024

5-6 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): MRO Middle East, Dubai Trade Center, Dubai, UAE.

12-14 March (Tuesday- Thursday): IATA World Cargo Symposium, Hong Kong International Airport, Hong Kong.

20 March (Wednesday): Construction work scheduled to begin on the 162 km Rasht-Astara Railway in Iran.

APRIL 2024

30 April- 2 May(Tuesday-Thursday): Autonomous E-mobility Forum, Doha, Qatar.

MAY 2024

2-3 May (Thursday-Friday): Geneva Dry, Hotel President Wilson, Geneva, Switzerland.

21-23 May (Tuesday-Thursday): WAGA 2024, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

JUNE 2024

19-21 June (Wednesday-Friday): World Freezones Organization’s Annual International Conference and Exhibition, Bari, Italy.

OCTOBER 2024

6-8 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Routes World 2024, Bahrain.

NOVEMBER 2024

13-15 November (Wednesday-Friday): The Bahrain International Airshow, Sakhir Airbase, Bahrain.

DECEMBER 2024

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Business Aviation, DWC, Dubai, UAE.

2025

Mid-2025: Iraq will complete phase one of the construction of the Grand Faw Port.

DHL and Aramco’s logistics and procurement hub in Saudi Arabia will commence operations.

1Q 2025: Sadr Park’s Logistics Center in Riyadh to be completed.

2027

4Q 2027: Oman’s Musandam Airport construction to be completed.

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