Good morning, friends. We’re back with a packed issue dominated by M&A updates from Qatar and UAE. The US move to impose blanket tariffs on all of its trading partners also reverberated in the global and regional press, and we dive into the impact on our region…
THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY OVER THE EID BREAK- Trump pushes global trade into crisis mode: The global trade war is cranking up a gear while traders and business leaders alike come to grips with the impact the Trump administration’s blanket tariff will have. A baseline 10% duty rate came into effect on 2 April last week, with higher rates — up to 49% — for 57 countries due to come into effect on 9 April.
A questionable formula: Trump personally chose a formula for determining the rates based on two variables: the trade deficit with each country and the total value of its US exports, the Washington Post wrote, citing two sources it said are familiar with the matter.
ALSO- A separate 25% tariff on all car exports to the US also entered into effect on 2 April, Reuters reported last week.
A slight reprieve: Mexico and Canada will not be subject to tariffs beyond the 25% tariffs already announced earlier this year, while products like steel, aluminum, and auto parts will also be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs and only subject to the previously announced levies, the Associated Press and Politico reported here and here, respectively.
^^ We have all the details on how this story will impact our region and the wider industry in the news well below.
HAPPENING TODAY-
IMO to discuss carbon emissions levy: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will hold the Maritime Environment Protection Committee meetings today and until Friday to discuss the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), according to a statement. Ongoing negotiations have seen divisions between advocates of heavy levies on carbon emissions — including the UK, Pacific Latin American, Pacific and Caribbean nations — and the EU, which has trimmed its proposed levies down to target a USD 30 bn revenue from the tax, down from an initial USD 60 bn, Gcaptain reports.
HAPPENING THIS WEEK-
The Gulf Ship Finance Forum will take place this Thursday, in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives regionally and globally to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions focused on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Riyadh Air cleared for takeoff: Riyadh Air received its Air Operator Certificate (AOC) from the General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca), clearing the way for it to begin flying later this year, the authority said in a post on X. However, the new airlines’ first flight — which was pushed back its launch to 3Q 2025 from earlier this year — hinges on Boeing picking up the slack to deliver its delayed aircraft. The airline is expected to receive as many as four Boeing 787 Dreamliners this year, with more jets from Airbus scheduled to trickle in starting 2H 2026 as part of a 60-jet order of A321neos.
#2- Gulf energy majors extend their Kenyan supply contract: State-owned Adnoc, Emirates National Petroleum, and Saudi Aramco will resume its supplies of gas, diesel, kerosene, and jet fuel to Kenya under a six-month credit plan, Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority director general Daniel Kipto told Bloomberg on Friday. The East African nation is also planning to renew its expiring supply contracts for two years starting from the end of 2025. The new arrangement replaces the previous open-tendering system, which required nearly USD 500 mn to be paid monthly, five days after delivery.
That’s not all: A renegotiation of margin reductions has also helped slash freight and premium costs by 11% to USD 78 per metric ton for diesel, 7% to USD 84 for gasoline, and 13% to USD 97 for jet fuel. Kenya re-exports part of its oil import shipments to Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan, Kipto added, noting that plans are in the works to add Rwanda to this list.
#3- Investors flock to Syrian-Jordanian Freezone: A total of 88 investment and operational contracts have been inked for the Syrian-Jordanian Joint Freezone in 2025, with more than 800 investors waiting for approval to start investing and operating their business in the zone, the Jordan Times reported last week, citing the Jordan Freezone Investors Commission. The contracts were distributed among 78 contracts for the old part of the joint zone and ten contracts for its new expansion.
ICYMI- The Syrian-Jordanian Freezone restarted operations earlier this year after a 13-year hiatus due to civil unrest. The two countries also resumed agricultural trade in January.
Trade in numbers: Jordan’s exports to Syria increased by 520% y-o-y in January 2025 to JOD 18.6 mn (USD 26.2 mn), Al Mamlaka reported on Thursday, citing data from Foreign Trade. Imports from Syria decreased by 9% y-o-y to JOD 4.7 mn during the same period.
#4- The Iraqi gov’t will set up a private company to manage the Development Road project, according to an Iraq Transport Ministry statement published last month. The committee overseeing the project has approved the temporary governance instructions that regulate the relationship between Iraq and Turkey regarding the project. Consulting firm Oliver Wyman is set to hold joint meetings on the matter. Details regarding the size of the private company and its responsibilities have not been disclosed.
What’s next? The project is entering a new phase of discussions with high-level visits between Iraq and Turkey during 1H 2025, adding new agreements to the pipeline regarding financing and implementation of the Development Road Project, Turkiye Today reported last week, citing remarks by the Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu.
About the project: The Development Road Project aims to connect Iraq’s Al Faw mega port — currently under construction — to Turkey via roads and rails totaling 1.2k km. The project is set to rival the Suez Canal route for cargo moving from Asian to European markets.
REMEMBER- The UAE, Iraq, Turkey, and Qatar signed apreliminary agreement last year to work together on the Development Road project in Iraq.
ALSO- Turkey is working on rail connections in Syria: Turkey is also ramping up efforts for a rail extension and revamping project in Syria, Turkiye Today reported. The project will include an extension from Turkey’s Meydan-i Ekbez toward Aleppo and Damascus, and will repair about 45 km of damaged rail in the country.
#5- US strikes on Houthis show no signs of stopping: The US airstrikes campaign against Houthis has escalated over the past two weeks as the Trump administration vows to eradicate the militant group’s military capabilities and its ability to attack US ships. The US has said the strikes took out some of the group’s leaders, including its top missile expert, Reuters reported last week.
Would it work? Experts say continued US air strikes on the Houthis are unlikely to halt the Iran-backed group’s attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea, The National reported in late March. Since the group controls big swaths of land that allow them to absorb damage and redshift operations, “ [airstrikes] by themselves cannot defeat the Houthis”, and a ground operation may be necessary, Yemen expert and associate research fellow at the UK-based think tank Royal United Services Institute Baraa Shiban said. The US may also lack sufficient intelligence to pin down the group’s “opaque leadership and internal structure,” International Crisis Group ’s Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi told CNN.
Is it sustainable? So far, the campaign has cost the US’ public coffers about USD 1 bn in just three weeks with limited impact on the group’s capabilities, CNN reports, citing three people who were briefed on the situation. “We are burning through readiness — munitions, fuel, deployment time,” one US official told CNN.
#6- A high-level Egyptian trade delegation will travel to Canada in mid-April as part of efforts to boost Canadian investment and trade with Egypt, Egyptian-Canadian Business Council head Motaz Raslan told Al Arabiya in late March. The mission will include reps from 15 major companies and several government bodies — including the Oil Ministry, the General Authority for Investment and Freezones, and the Suez Canal Economic Zone.
#7- European oil traders are contemplating when and how to re-enter Russia’s markets if Western sanctions led by the US are lifted, the Financial Times reported in late March. The return, however, is expected to be ‘fragmented’ and could take a year or two, given the divide among Western nations on how to approach Russia and the possibility of sustained sanctions in some jurisdictions in Europe, Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy told FT.
Russia could also be reluctant: Russia has “their own ways now and use their own controlled system to bring oil to the markets,” Geneva-based energy trading firm Gunvor chief executive and founder Torbjorn Tornqvist told FT. Russia is expected to favor trading oil on a delivery basis, shipping directly to customers to bag a larger portion of the revenue stream, Tornqvist added.
In context: Europe's leading commodity trading houses — including Gunvor, Vitol, and Trafigura — stopped trading Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent implementation of Western sanctions. Russia instead looked to new intermediaries — mainly in Dubai and Hong Kong — to shift crude to new buyers in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea in March.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices fell sharply this morning amid intensifying fears that the US blanket tariffs could trigger a global recession, stifling demand for crude, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell by USD 1.41 to USD 64.17 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped USD 1.35 to reach USD 60.64 a barrel by 05.14 GMT. The current rates are crude’s lowest since April 2021.
IN OTHER RELATED NEWS- Aramco made its steepest oil price cut in over two years, slashing May prices for Arab light crude and other grades to Asia by USD 2.30 per barrel, Reuters reports, citing a company pricing list. This marks the second consecutive month of price cuts, setting prices at a four-month low.
This comes after eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil production more than three times originally planned, according to a statement from the weekend. The decision will hike output 411k barrels and comes after Kazakhstan reportedly continued to report record figures at the oil pump and Iraq failed to comply with production cuts.
#2- Baltic index dips once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 3.3% to 1,489 points on Friday. The capesize dipped 5% to 2,219 points, while the panamax index fell by 2.7% to reach 1,425 points, its highest in five months. The smaller supramax index decreased by 2 points to 971.
#3- The Drewry World Container Index rose by 2% to USD 2,208 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are at their lowest since January 2024 and 79% below the previous pandemic peak, but remain 55% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 2,993 per 40ft container, which is USD 105 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,887.
#4- European nat. gas continues to drop: Lower temperatures and strong LNG supplies have contributed to a continued dip in benchmark future prices for European natural gas, Bloomberg reported last week. Europe’s LNG imports for March are expected to rise 25% y-o-y. LNG has been replacing Russian natural gas as Europe’s top imported fuel, with boosted imports from the US, Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria.
DATA POINT-
The Middle East will account for 10% of new global LNG liquefaction capacity by 2030, driven by the region’s reserves and heightened global demand for LNG, Offshore Technology reported last week. Qatar will account for more than 65% of the Middle East’s total capacity, with liquefaction terminals such as North Field East, North Field South, and North Field West poised to play a major role in the capacity increase. Iraq is also expected to add nearly 14 mtpa of capacity by 2030.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops, and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations, and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.
The UAE will host the Airport Show on Tuesday, 6 May to Thursday, 8 May in Dubai. The event will show products and technology for the airport industry from over 160 international suppliers and manufacturers across 20 countries. It will also provide a platform for networking with key players across seven airport sectors.
Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Smart Logistics trade fair on Monday, 12 May to Thursday, 15 May in Riyadh. The event will provide insights into the latest international and local technology, solutions, equipment providers, and sustainable workflow practices within the logistics industry in the country.
The UAE will host the Global Ports Forum on Tuesday, 13 May to Wednesday, 14 May in Dubai. The forum will cover topics such as port strategy and development, port automation, finance and efficiency.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




