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US tariffs could offer opportunities for the region, uncertainty remains

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What we're tracking today

TODAY: US tariffs regional impact + Flynas cleared for IPO

Good morning, friends. We’re back with a packed issue dominated by M&A updates from Qatar and UAE. The US move to impose blanket tariffs on all of its trading partners also reverberated in the global and regional press, and we dive into the impact on our region…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY OVER THE EID BREAK- Trump pushes global trade into crisis mode: The global trade war is cranking up a gear while traders and business leaders alike come to grips with the impact the Trump administration’s blanket tariff will have. A baseline 10% duty rate came into effect on 2 April last week, with higher rates — up to 49% — for 57 countries due to come into effect on 9 April.

A questionable formula: Trump personally chose a formula for determining the rates based on two variables: the trade deficit with each country and the total value of its US exports, the Washington Post wrote, citing two sources it said are familiar with the matter.

ALSO- A separate 25% tariff on all car exports to the US also entered into effect on 2 April, Reuters reported last week.

A slight reprieve: Mexico and Canada will not be subject to tariffs beyond the 25% tariffs already announced earlier this year, while products like steel, aluminum, and auto parts will also be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs and only subject to the previously announced levies, the Associated Press and Politico reported here and here, respectively.

^^ We have all the details on how this story will impact our region and the wider industry in the news well below.

HAPPENING TODAY-

IMO to discuss carbon emissions levy: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will hold the Maritime Environment Protection Committee meetings today and until Friday to discuss the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), according to a statement. Ongoing negotiations have seen divisions between advocates of heavy levies on carbon emissions — including the UK, Pacific Latin American, Pacific and Caribbean nations — and the EU, which has trimmed its proposed levies down to target a USD 30 bn revenue from the tax, down from an initial USD 60 bn, Gcaptain reports.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Gulf Ship Finance Forum will take place this Thursday, in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives regionally and globally to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions focused on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Riyadh Air cleared for takeoff: Riyadh Air received its Air Operator Certificate (AOC) from the General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca), clearing the way for it to begin flying later this year, the authority said in a post on X. However, the new airlines’ first flight — which was pushed back its launch to 3Q 2025 from earlier this year — hinges on Boeing picking up the slack to deliver its delayed aircraft. The airline is expected to receive as many as four Boeing 787 Dreamliners this year, with more jets from Airbus scheduled to trickle in starting 2H 2026 as part of a 60-jet order of A321neos.

#2- Gulf energy majors extend their Kenyan supply contract: State-owned Adnoc, Emirates National Petroleum, and Saudi Aramco will resume its supplies of gas, diesel, kerosene, and jet fuel to Kenya under a six-month credit plan, Kenya’s Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority director general Daniel Kipto told Bloomberg on Friday. The East African nation is also planning to renew its expiring supply contracts for two years starting from the end of 2025. The new arrangement replaces the previous open-tendering system, which required nearly USD 500 mn to be paid monthly, five days after delivery.

That’s not all: A renegotiation of margin reductions has also helped slash freight and premium costs by 11% to USD 78 per metric ton for diesel, 7% to USD 84 for gasoline, and 13% to USD 97 for jet fuel. Kenya re-exports part of its oil import shipments to Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Sudan, Kipto added, noting that plans are in the works to add Rwanda to this list.

#3- Investors flock to Syrian-Jordanian Freezone: A total of 88 investment and operational contracts have been inked for the Syrian-Jordanian Joint Freezone in 2025, with more than 800 investors waiting for approval to start investing and operating their business in the zone, the Jordan Times reported last week, citing the Jordan Freezone Investors Commission. The contracts were distributed among 78 contracts for the old part of the joint zone and ten contracts for its new expansion.

ICYMI- The Syrian-Jordanian Freezone restarted operations earlier this year after a 13-year hiatus due to civil unrest. The two countries also resumed agricultural trade in January.

Trade in numbers: Jordan’s exports to Syria increased by 520% y-o-y in January 2025 to JOD 18.6 mn (USD 26.2 mn), Al Mamlaka reported on Thursday, citing data from Foreign Trade. Imports from Syria decreased by 9% y-o-y to JOD 4.7 mn during the same period.

#4- The Iraqi gov’t will set up a private company to manage the Development Road project, according to an Iraq Transport Ministry statement published last month. The committee overseeing the project has approved the temporary governance instructions that regulate the relationship between Iraq and Turkey regarding the project. Consulting firm Oliver Wyman is set to hold joint meetings on the matter. Details regarding the size of the private company and its responsibilities have not been disclosed.

What’s next? The project is entering a new phase of discussions with high-level visits between Iraq and Turkey during 1H 2025, adding new agreements to the pipeline regarding financing and implementation of the Development Road Project, Turkiye Today reported last week, citing remarks by the Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu.

About the project: The Development Road Project aims to connect Iraq’s Al Faw mega port — currently under construction — to Turkey via roads and rails totaling 1.2k km. The project is set to rival the Suez Canal route for cargo moving from Asian to European markets.

REMEMBER- The UAE, Iraq, Turkey, and Qatar signed apreliminary agreement last year to work together on the Development Road project in Iraq.

ALSO- Turkey is working on rail connections in Syria: Turkey is also ramping up efforts for a rail extension and revamping project in Syria, Turkiye Today reported. The project will include an extension from Turkey’s Meydan-i Ekbez toward Aleppo and Damascus, and will repair about 45 km of damaged rail in the country.

#5- US strikes on Houthis show no signs of stopping: The US airstrikes campaign against Houthis has escalated over the past two weeks as the Trump administration vows to eradicate the militant group’s military capabilities and its ability to attack US ships. The US has said the strikes took out some of the group’s leaders, including its top missile expert, Reuters reported last week.

Would it work? Experts say continued US air strikes on the Houthis are unlikely to halt the Iran-backed group’s attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea, The National reported in late March. Since the group controls big swaths of land that allow them to absorb damage and redshift operations, “ [airstrikes] by themselves cannot defeat the Houthis”, and a ground operation may be necessary, Yemen expert and associate research fellow at the UK-based think tank Royal United Services Institute Baraa Shiban said. The US may also lack sufficient intelligence to pin down the group’s “opaque leadership and internal structure,” International Crisis Group ’s Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi told CNN.

Is it sustainable? So far, the campaign has cost the US’ public coffers about USD 1 bn in just three weeks with limited impact on the group’s capabilities, CNN reports, citing three people who were briefed on the situation. “We are burning through readiness — munitions, fuel, deployment time,” one US official told CNN.

#6- A high-level Egyptian trade delegation will travel to Canada in mid-April as part of efforts to boost Canadian investment and trade with Egypt, Egyptian-Canadian Business Council head Motaz Raslan told Al Arabiya in late March. The mission will include reps from 15 major companies and several government bodies — including the Oil Ministry, the General Authority for Investment and Freezones, and the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

#7- European oil traders are contemplating when and how to re-enter Russia’s markets if Western sanctions led by the US are lifted, the Financial Times reported in late March. The return, however, is expected to be ‘fragmented’ and could take a year or two, given the divide among Western nations on how to approach Russia and the possibility of sustained sanctions in some jurisdictions in Europe, Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy told FT.

Russia could also be reluctant: Russia has “their own ways now and use their own controlled system to bring oil to the markets,” Geneva-based energy trading firm Gunvor chief executive and founder Torbjorn Tornqvist told FT. Russia is expected to favor trading oil on a delivery basis, shipping directly to customers to bag a larger portion of the revenue stream, Tornqvist added.

In context: Europe's leading commodity trading houses — including Gunvor, Vitol, and Trafigura — stopped trading Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent implementation of Western sanctions. Russia instead looked to new intermediaries — mainly in Dubai and Hong Kong — to shift crude to new buyers in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Russia and Ukraine agreed to a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea in March.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices fell sharply this morning amid intensifying fears that the US blanket tariffs could trigger a global recession, stifling demand for crude, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell by USD 1.41 to USD 64.17 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped USD 1.35 to reach USD 60.64 a barrel by 05.14 GMT. The current rates are crude’s lowest since April 2021.

IN OTHER RELATED NEWS- Aramco made its steepest oil price cut in over two years, slashing May prices for Arab light crude and other grades to Asia by USD 2.30 per barrel, Reuters reports, citing a company pricing list. This marks the second consecutive month of price cuts, setting prices at a four-month low.

This comes after eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise oil production more than three times originally planned, according to a statement from the weekend. The decision will hike output 411k barrels and comes after Kazakhstan reportedly continued to report record figures at the oil pump and Iraq failed to comply with production cuts.

#2- Baltic index dips once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 3.3% to 1,489 points on Friday. The capesize dipped 5% to 2,219 points, while the panamax index fell by 2.7% to reach 1,425 points, its highest in five months. The smaller supramax index decreased by 2 points to 971.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index rose by 2% to USD 2,208 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are at their lowest since January 2024 and 79% below the previous pandemic peak, but remain 55% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 2,993 per 40ft container, which is USD 105 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,887.

#4- European nat. gas continues to drop: Lower temperatures and strong LNG supplies have contributed to a continued dip in benchmark future prices for European natural gas, Bloomberg reported last week. Europe’s LNG imports for March are expected to rise 25% y-o-y. LNG has been replacing Russian natural gas as Europe’s top imported fuel, with boosted imports from the US, Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria.

DATA POINT-

The Middle East will account for 10% of new global LNG liquefaction capacity by 2030, driven by the region’s reserves and heightened global demand for LNG, Offshore Technology reported last week. Qatar will account for more than 65% of the Middle East’s total capacity, with liquefaction terminals such as North Field East, North Field South, and North Field West poised to play a major role in the capacity increase. Iraq is also expected to add nearly 14 mtpa of capacity by 2030.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops, and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations, and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.

The UAE will host the Airport Show on Tuesday, 6 May to Thursday, 8 May in Dubai. The event will show products and technology for the airport industry from over 160 international suppliers and manufacturers across 20 countries. It will also provide a platform for networking with key players across seven airport sectors.

Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Smart Logistics trade fair on Monday, 12 May to Thursday, 15 May in Riyadh. The event will provide insights into the latest international and local technology, solutions, equipment providers, and sustainable workflow practices within the logistics industry in the country.

The UAE will host the Global Ports Forum on Tuesday, 13 May to Wednesday, 14 May in Dubai. The forum will cover topics such as port strategy and development, port automation, finance and efficiency.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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Trade

US tariffs are here: What we know so far on the regional implications

Trump tariffs to hit our region unequally: The GCC region, Sudan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Egypt got off relatively lightly with Trump’s 10% baseline levy. However, not everyone in the region was as fortunate, with Syria set to face a 41% tariff, Iraq a 39% tariff, Libya a 31% tariff, Algeria a 30% tariff, Tunisia a 28% tariff, and Jordan a 20% tariff.

Beyond our region, China was hit with a 34% levy, bringing the total tariff on Chinese imports to 54%. The US tariffs also targeted the EU with 20%, Vietnam with 46%, and Taiwan with 32%.

The move is set to ignite a global trade war after decades of liberal trade measures from the US, with trading partners widely expected to retaliate. Beijing led the pack with a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US, with the EU expected to follow soon, whereas other countries, such as Vietnam, are attempting to negotiate their way out of the measures, Reuters reported.

THE REGIONAL IMPACT-

Some think that the decision could boost exports for countries like Egypt, with its 10% comparatively low tariff rate possibly increasing its competitiveness and attracting investors seeking to bypass higher tariff rates elsewhere like China, Asharq Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. Egyptian Businessmen Association Chairman Ali Issa mirrored this view, pointing to garments as a sector — the largest source of US-bound exports — that has the potential to take advantage of the situation by upping its exports to the US.

Over in the GCC area, the higher tariffs could also offer “a relative competitive advantage,” GCC Economist and Khalij Economics Director Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM. “It's not a good outcome that universal tariffs are now part of how the US is financing itself, but [Gulf] leaders may take it as a partial success that they ended up in this lowest tier of most friendly countries in this new rubric,” founder of advisory firm Ziemba Insights Rachel Ziemba told the National. On the downside, the fact that the GCC is only getting off with a 10% tariff means there is likely “little scope for individual negotiation,” Alexander told us.

For the UAE, most economists agree that the impact on the country’s trade will be limited, since the US is a smaller market for exports. However, a “recalibration of global trade flows” is expected, which will have an impact on companies with complex global operations like DP World, Alexander said. “The UAE’s role as a bastion of freetrade will add to its appeal as an investment destination in an uncertain world,” Alexander added. Furthermore, leading UAE export-oriented industries like aluminum and jewellery are expected to survive the impact, given the “high-profit margins associated with precious stones and jewellery, and the UAE's status as a low-cost producer of aluminium”, chief economist at Commercial Bank of Dubai Deepak Mehra told the National.

The same goes for Saudi Arabia: The direct impact of US tariffs on Saudi trade is likely to be limited, given the relatively modest volume of Saudi exports to the US market, Al Mal Chief Investment Officer Faisal Hasan told Asharq Business. “As for economic activity in the region, it may not be significantly affected because the region's exports to the United States are not as strong as those seen in Canada, Mexico, and China,” he said.

Inflation risks, however, are up: The tariffs are also expected to drive up inflation, leading to higher-for-longer interest rates in the US and the rest of the GCC, which could result in outflows of investments from emerging markets, according to EFG Hermes’ Mohamed Abu Basha. “The shock to sentiment and capital flows is likely to endure and requires higher risk premia,” Investment bank JP Morgan said in a note seen by Reuters, while downgrading its position on emerging market currencies to “underweight.”

SHIPPING COMPANIES ARE BRACING FOR IMPACT-

As companies rush to ship goods to the US before the tariffs hit, freight costs have surged dramatically, with Pharma and hardware firms reportedly paying a 40% premium on US-bound shipments from China, the Financial Times reported on Friday. The average cost of flying cargo from China on short notice also surged 37% to USD 4.14 per kg throughout March, despite a steady decline since the Christmas season peak.

Demand for shipping services could also take a hit, as the levies drive the prices of automotive and essential items, stymying demand and the flow of goods, shipping giant Nippon Yusen’s President Takaya Soga told Reuters last week. This will result in a tightening of ship demand and contribute to higher freight costs, Soga said.

Shippers are not happy: Shipping giants Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk have raised alarms over the oncoming tariffs, Reuters reported here and here. Hapag-Lloyd expects rippling effects on demand, cargo flows, and costs, and is preparing for a possible readjustment of its service network as a result. The US plan “clearly isn't good news” for the “global economy, stability and trade,” Maersk said. The aforementioned firms as well as DSV, KNIN, and DHL recently saw stock share losses after the tariff announcements, Hellenic Shipping reports.

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IPO Watch

Flynas moves forward with IPO

KSA clears Flynas for IPO: Saudi budget airline Flynas received approval from the Kingdom’s Capital Market Authority (CMA) to proceed with an IPO that will see it offer 51.26 mn shares, representing a 30% stake, according to a statement released late March. A prospectus for the offering is yet to be published.

We’ve been expecting it: Plans to go public this year were confirmed by the Kingdom Holding Company’s CEO Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. The airline had initially planned to make its market debut last year, having tapped Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Saudi Fransi Capital for the offering in late 2023.

IN CONTEXT- The listing would be the Gulf's third airline IPO — and the first in nearly two decades — following UAE’s Air Arabia and Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways.

About Flynas: The low-budget airliner is a private equity-backed company, operating over 1.5k weekly flights, servicing 139 routes to connect 30 countries with a 61-aircraft fleet.

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M&A Watch

M&A updates from the UAE and Qatar

M&A activity has picked up over the last two weeks, with major players from the UAE and Qatar making moves in several segments of the logistics sector, from aviation and freight forwarding to data centers.

FROM THE UAE

#1- Real estate developer Damac’s data center unit Edgnex acquired Finland-based data center firm Hyperco as part of its ongoing push into the sector, according to a statement released last week. The company operates in Finland and Sweden, and will allow Edgnex to “build a significant future capacity in the Nordics and establish a strong foothold in the market,” the statement said. The company’s three founders will continue to lead the company.

Edgnex has big plans in Europe — and beyond: Elsewhere in Europe, Edgnex allocated USD 100 mn with Vodafone Turkey for a 6 MW data center in Izmir, also set to go online this year, as well as a separate initial USD 150 mn investment for a data center in Sparta, Greece.

Edgnex is on track to deliver 55 MW worth of data center capacity in the Middle East by the end of the year, and a 3 GW capacity globally. It is also targeting more than 300 MW of operational capacity by next year, backed by a USD 3 bn pipeline. The company also plans to invest a whopping USD 20 bn to develop data centers in the US, with plans to build 2 GW of capacity over the next four years.

#2- ADQ has secured a 63.26% stake in Aramex, after shareholders offered acceptances for some 40.57% shares in the company to be acquired by ADQ subsidiary Q Logistics Holding, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf) released late March. ADQ already owns a 22.69% stake in Aramex through its subsidiary AD Ports.

REFRESHER- Q Logistics Holdings launched a voluntary tender offer to buy up all of Aramex’s shares — excluding the 22.69% stake already held by ADQ shipping unit AD Ports — at AED 3 apiece, valuing the freight services firm at AED 4.4 bn. The company had snapped up a 35.31% stake in Aramex by the time the offer period ended before mid-march, though more shareholders agreed to tender their shares later. Aramex will soon be folded into ADQ’s transport and logistics cluster, joining assets like AD Ports, Abu Dhabi Airports, Etihad Airways, and Etihad Rail.

ADVISORS- Rothschild is acting as financial adviser for Q Logistics, while EFG Hermes UAE, International Securities and Emirates NBD capital serve as co-lead managers on the transaction. Clifford Chance was hired to provide counsel on the potential acquisition. Aramex tapped HSBC as its financial advisor for the potential takeover.

QATARI MOVES-

#1- Qatar Airways snag final approval for its Virgin Australia alliance: Qatar’s flagship carrier Qatar Airways and Virgin Australia have received approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to move forward with an alliance that will provide 28 weekly flights between Australia and Doha, according to a statement published in late March. Virgin Australia will operate flights from Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth to Doha starting June 2025 using leased aircraft — to be followed by a Melbourne-Doha route in December 2025.

ICYMI- Qatar Airways received approval from the Australian government for its proposedacquisition of 25% of Virgin Australia earlier last month. The Qatari carrier will acquire the share from US private equity firm Bain Capital, which will still retain the majority stake in the airline. The flights will translate to over 100 new connecting itineraries across Europe, MENA, and Africa for Virgin customers.

#2- QSE-listed Lesha Bank — formerly known as Qatar First Bank — indirectly acquired a stake in Scotland’s largest airport Edinburgh airport, it said in a statement (pdf) released last week. The move — made through an investment in an infrastructure-focused investment fund that owns stakes in the airport — is part of the lender’s plans to ramp up exposure to aviation and infrastructure assets, the statement reads.

Who’s holding the keys? The airport is jointly owned by Vinci Airports (holding a controlling stake) and PE fund Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). While the statement didn’t name the fund through which it gained exposure to the airport, we suspect it is GIP.

Doha ? UK airports: This is the latest Qatari investment in UK airport assets after the Qatar Investment Authority acquired a 20% stake in London’s Heathrow airport back in 2012.

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Roads

Dubai Roads and Transport Authority awards AED 786 mn road construction contracts

Dubai Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) and Dubai Holding have awarded AED 786 mn construction contracts for a road project in Dubai Islands, according to a statement. The project will construct access and exit points to Dubai Islands from the Bur Dubai side. No further details regarding the contract recipients were provided.

What we know: The project includes a 2 km road, as well as a 1.4 km bridge consisting of four lanes that will be built over Dubai Creek and have a total carrying capacity of 16k vehicles per hour in both directions. The project falls under the RTA’s Shindagha Corridor Development Project — which looks to develop 15 intersections over a 13km stretch in Dubai to serve key projects, such as Dubai Maritime City, and Port Rashid.

ICYMI- RTA inked an AED 6 bn agreement with Dubai Holding earlier in March to expand internal roads and access points across the emirate to cut down travel time and boost the capacity of key access points by 30-70% across Dubai’s communities and residential projects, Wam reports.

IN OTHER PROJECT UPDATES-

Saudi Arabia has launched a tender for the lead design consultancy services on its USD7 bn Riyadh-Jeddah land bridge megaproject, Meed reported on Friday. The megaproject — which is set to develop over 1.5k km of new tracks across the Kingdom — is part of the broader scope to construct six new railway lines, including a 950-km rail line linking Riyadh and Jeddah and another 115-km route connecting Dammam and Jubail, Al Watan reports. The tracks will bridge together seven logistics centers in the Kingdom, linking Jubail Industrial City, Dammam Port, Riyadh Dry Port, King Khalid Airport, Jeddah Dry Port, King Abdullah Port, and Yanbu Industrial City.

Refresher: The project is set to connect the Kingdom’s Red Sea coast to the coast of the Arab Gulf. The Saudi Railway Company (SAR) awarded a consortium in 2023 that includes US-based construction management firm Hill International, Italian consulting firm Italferr, and Spanish engineering firm Sener the contract to manage the construction of the project. SAR r eceived bids for the contract in October 2022.

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Projects

UAE and India partner with Sri Lanka on energy hub, storage project

The UAE, India, and Sri Lanka signed an agreement to explore the development of an energy hub in Sri Lanka’s strategic port city of Trincomalee, Reuters reported on Saturday. The agreement — signed during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Colombo — marks the first major trilateral energy partnership in the region. The project could include a multi-product pipeline and the potential redeployment of WWII-era oil storage tanks managed by Indian Oil Corp.

What's next? It has not been revealed whether production will be exported or earmarked for domestic use. The UAE’s role in financing and feasibility studies is also yet to be determined through talks between businesses from the three nations.

In context: The agreement intensifies the regional competition between China and India for influence in Sri Lanka, which saw India hand Sri Lanka USD 4 bn in financial aid following its 2022 crisis, and Beijing’s state-owned energy company Sinopec agree to build a USD 3.2 bn oil refinery in Hambantota, a port city in southern Sri Lanka.

ICYMI- The UAE signed an investment agreement with Sri Lanka last month to strengthen economic ties between the two countries, while recent Emirati-Indian cooperation includes logistics giant DP World launching a new rail service between depots and ports in India.

7

Purchasing

UAE’s non-oil business activity growth slows in March

Non-oil activity in the UAE accelerates at slowest pace in seven months: The UAE’s non-oil activity saw a “mild slowdown” in growth in March, with business activity continuing to improve, but at the slowest pace recorded since September of last year, according to S&P Global UAE PMI (pdf). The headline figure reached 54.0 during the month, down from 55.0 in February.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

New orders and output growth slowed, as did employment: The new orders subindex fell to 56.3 in March, down from 57.3 in February, with businesses seeing continued strong competition and subdued growth in new export orders, Reuters writes. “A third consecutive month-on-month softening of new orders growth shows that some firms could be encountering challenges in meeting their sales targets,” S&P Global senior economist David Owen said. “Output growth eased to 59.6 in March while new orders growth slowed to its lowest pace in five months,” National Bank of Kuwait's Essa Ahmed told EnterpriseUAE. “Moreover, employment growth continued to slow, nearing the neutral benchmark at 50.2,” Ahmed added.

Input purchases rose sharply despite the slowdown: Businesses’ purchasing activity jumped to its fastest pace since mid-2019, with firms showing “resilience” in working to clear backlogs of work as evident from a concurrent dip in total inventories, Ahmed told us. Meanwhile, input prices rose at a moderate pace during the month, with some firms reporting a rise in material costs on the back of rising input demand, while others reported a drop in transportation costs, “reflecting firms’ efforts to preserve their profit margins,” Ahmed said.

“Hiring remains a significant concern, with March's employment rates marking the weakest growth in nearly three years. Given the elevated demand levels, this suggests that some firms could be struggling to locate suitable candidates,” Owen said.

Business sentiment remains positive: “Businesses’ sentiment remained optimistic over the next 12 months, buoyed by strong project pipelines and continued national development initiatives,” Ahmed said.

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8

Earnings Watch

UAE’s GuflNav posts FY 2024 results

UAE-based shipping firm Gulf Navigation (GulfNav) turned to a loss in 2024, with a net loss after tax at AED 20.1 mn, as the company focused on strategic investment decisions like fleet modernization and upgrades, according to its earnings release (pdf) and financials (pdf). The company's revenues fell 16% y-o-y to AED 88.7 mn.

Looking ahead, the company is expecting a recovery in the demand for petrochemical shipping services, with positive revenue expectations in 2025. Gulfnav is also set to acquire Brooge Energy’s assets for AED 3.3 bn, after its shareholders approved the transaction in March.

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Also on Our Radar

Updates on all things logistics from Qatar, KSA, and UAE

PORTS-

AD Ports taps two firms for Angola terminal upgrade project: AD Ports Group has selected US firm Mar Construction and Sidara’s engineering consultancy subsidiary Dar Al Handasah to revamp Noatum Ports Luanda Terminal in Angola, according to a statement. Mar Construction will be responsible for building the topside and marine infrastructure at the port terminal, while Dar Al Handasah will oversee project management and construction supervision. The upgrades are scheduled to be completed in 1Q 2027.

Background: AD Ports secured a 20-year concession with Angola’s Luanda Port Authority to operate and upgrade the Luanda multipurpose port terminal last year. AD Ports is shelling out USD 251 mn to modernize the terminal and its logistics operations between 2025 and 2026. The port currently handles over 76% of Angola’s container and general cargo volumes and serves as one of Central-West Africa’s key transhipment hubs, enabling land-locked countries — including the DRC and Zambia — to access maritime trade.

On the cards: The project aims to modernize the 192k sqm terminal to offer high-density container handling capable of accommodating Super Post-Panamax vessels of up to 14k TEUs. Once operational, the project is slated to boost the terminal's container capacity from 25k TEUs to 350k TEUs, while RoRo volumes are expected to surpass 40k vehicles.

IN OTHER AD PORTS NEWS- AD Ports boosts Khalifa Port’s fossils’ storage capacity: AD Ports Group has inked a 50-year agreement with local oil supplier and distributor Oylz Terminals to build a 600k cbm petroleum storage facility in Khalifa Port, according to a statement released at the end of March. The facility will be developed over two phases, with the first phase slated to launch in mid-2027. The investment ticket or total timeline for the project was not disclosed.

About the developer: Sharjah-based Oylz Terminals offers oil terminal services, including storage and distribution for petroleum products and its derivatives, according to its website. Oylz operates bulk petroleum storage facilities in Sharjah’s Hamriyah Freezone, with a total capacity set at over 59.4k cbm.

LOGISTICS HANDLING-

Emirates debuts Emirates Courier Express: UAE’s airline Emirates has launched a new end-to-end delivery solution — dubbed Emirates Courier Express — offering next-day urgent delivery and two-day premium services across seven markets, according to a statement. Emirates Courier Express aims to streamline the delivery industry as packages will travel directly from origin to destination, voiding traditional hub-and-spoke models with a package making multiple stops. The service was successfully trialed last year, delivering thousands of packages to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, South Africa, and the UK.

TRADE-

UAE’s trade and economic partnership agreements with Mauritius and Costa Rica have taken effect, Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said in an X post. The agreement with Mauritius is set to grow the Emirates’ economy by 0.96% and Mauritius’ by over 1% by 2030, while the one with Costa Rica could see further cooperation in tourism, renewable energy, food security, ICT, and manufacturing.

ZONES-

Jafza earmarks AED 90 mn for its expansion plan: Jebel Ali Freezone (Jafza) is investing AED 90 mn into the second phase expansion of its Logistics Park, adding some 360k sq ft of Grade-A facilities to the plot to bring the park’s total area to 922k sq ft, according to a statement from late March. The second phase of the park will ramp up power capacity to support surges and offer a comprehensive suite of advanced facilities, including loading docks, temperature-controlled warehouses, offices, and customizable units. The move aligns with the UAE’s target to increase its logistics sector’s size to AED 200 bn annually over the next seven years, the statement adds.

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Around the World

Heathrow Airport’s kitting out could cost GDP 1 bn

Kitting out London’s Heathrow Airport to avoid a repeat of last month's emergency shutdown could cost over GDP 1 bn, Chief executive Thomas Woldbye said during a parliamentary questioning (watch, runtime: 09:25). The airport is looking to refit its facilities to achieve “full resilience,” after a fire at a nearby substation caused an airport-wide powercut last month that disrupted the plans of around 270k passengers and cost airlines USD 60-100 mn, The New York Times reports. Heathrow is looking to plug gaps in its energy reboot and back-up system, after the power cut forced the airport to switch to an alternative energy supply, a process which proved “highly complicated” and took some 10 hours to implement.

Reinforcing a key logistics hub: London Heathrow handles some GDP 200 bn worth of cargo each year, with around 48% of all the UK’s air cargo processed through the airport in 2023, Sky News reports.


China probes CK Hutchison sale of Panama ports: China’s top antitrust watchdog State Administration for Market Regulation has blocked Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison from selling its two ports in the Panama Canal. The regulator said it will investigate the transaction’s potential repercussions on fair competition and China’s public interests, according to a statement. “There will not be an official signing of the two Panama ports [agreement] next week,” a source close to CK Hutchison told Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.

REFRESHER- CK Hutchinson agreed in March to sell a majority stake in its ports subsidiary to a consortium led by the US’ Blackrock for USD 19 bn. The sale — which was initially set to close on 2 April — would include Panama canal’s Balboa and Cristobal ports — each situated on one of the waterway’s sides. It is not yet clear whether China’s probe will look into the transaction as a whole or focus on Panama ports.

What’s at stake? Control of the Panama waterway — through which about 40% of the US container shipments pass — emerged as a key focus area for the Trump administration, with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatening Panama earlier this year with “immediate consequences” if the country failed to curb China’s influence in the waterway. This comes as part of a general US push to rein in China’s dominance in the global shipping sector, with the US also targeting China’s shipbuilding sector.

This story grabbed ink in Reuters and Bloomberg.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

  • APM acquires PCRC: Maersk’s subsidiary APM Terminals has acquired the Panama Canal Railway Company (PCRC) from Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd and Lanco Group’s Mi-Jack. (Statement)

APRIL

10 April (Thursday): Gulf Ship Finance Forum, Dubai, UAE.

14 April (Monday): CargoIS Forum, Dubai, UAE.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Transport Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Aqaba, Jordan.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): IATA World Cargo Symposium, Dubai, UAE.

28 April-2 May: 7th Export Capabilities Exhibition (Iran Expo), Tehran, Iran.

MAY

6-8 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai, UAE.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai, UAE.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai, UAE.

27-29 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi Warehousing & Logistics Expo, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

JUNE

1-3 June (Sunday-Tuesday): Annual General Meeting & World Air Transport Summit 2025, Delhi, India.

2-4 June (Monday-Wednesday): Propak MENA, Cairo, Egypt.

5-6 June (Thursday-Friday): Supply Chain & Logistics Innovation Summit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

11-13 June (Wednesday-Friday): Sustainability World Summit, Frankfurt, Germany.

17-19 June (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

19 June (Thursday): East Med Maritime Conference, Athens, Greece.

25-26 June (Wednesday-Friday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Hamburg, Germany.

JULY

1-3 July (Tuesday-Thursday): ASEAN Ports and Logistics, Jakarta, Indonesia.

SEPTEMBER

4-10 September (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Algiers, Algeria.

24-26 September (Wednesday-Friday): Routes World, Hong Kong.

OCTOBER

1-2 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

14-15 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Investing in Africa Conference and Expo, London, UK.

NOVEMBER

3-6 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Dubai, UAE.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Mid-2025: Iraq will complete phase one of the construction of the Grand Faw Port.

DHL and Aramco’s logistics and procurement hub in Saudi Arabia will commence operations.

AD Ports-operated Safaga Port’s multi-purpose terminal will become operational.

Phase 3 of APM Terminals Tangier MedPort to be complete and operational.

1Q 2025: Sadr Park’s Logistics Center in Riyadh to be completed.

1Q 2025: Phase two of Jafza Logistics Park to be completed.

2026

2026 UNCTAD Global Supply Chains Forum, Saudi Arabia.

2027

4Q 2027: Oman’s Musandam Airport construction to be completed.

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