Good morning, folks. We’re heading into the weekend with a meaty issue, led by big projects’ updates from Oman and Egypt, as well as positive news on the global front with a big funding round for an autonomous logistics venture and the easing of the US-EU tension over Greenland.
Over in Oman, United Solar reached financial close on its USD 1.6 bn polysilicon plant in the Sohar Freezone with syndicated funding backed by the IFC. The project is good news for Oman’s ambition to turn Sohar into a hub for solar supply chains, angling for some 3% of polysilicon’s global supply.
Meanwhile, Egypt is moving toward a global tender for the USD 380 mn Semla-Salloum railway. The project is a critical infrastructure play designed to support big investment developments on the North Coast. It could also serve as a foundation stone for a Libya-bound rail connection — potentially tapping into African trade volumes via joint dry ports planned with Libya.
The big logistics story abroad
US-based drone delivery startup Zipline raised USD 600 mn in its latest funding round, unlocking an enterprise valuation of USD 7.6 bn. The funds were backed by existing and new investors, including venture capital firms such as Baillie Gifford and Tiger Global, in which the PIF’s Sanabil Investments is invested.
The funding comes on the heels of rising interest in autonomous logistics, as first-movers in the area ramp up efforts to disrupt last-mile markets across the world. Zipline — which also enjoys US government backing via a USD 150 mn fund backing entry into African markets — boasts an impressive w-o-w growth rate of 15% over the last seven months.
On the trade wars front, US President Donald Trump’s about-turn on Greenland and a potential detente between the US and the EU are dominating headlines everywhere, after he said the US has agreed on a framework for a future deal on the Danish territory after meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Trump had earlier threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries that had opposed his plans to take over Greenland, and the EU bloc was mulling ways to retaliate.
Market reax: US stocks rallied on the news, while the USD recovered from an earlier slump this week.
Watch this space
Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Air formally launched its cargo segment — which the carrier said will primarily leverage belly capacity on its 120 on-order wide-body jets, according to a statement. The new division will anchor its ground operations at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, the new carrier said.
The pitch is built on digitization: Riyadh Cargo will deploy a cloud-based operating system and use Bluetooth-enabled containers to offer real-time tracking for high-value shipments.
Our take? For now, this is a software launch waiting for the metal to arrive. With the bulk of its fleet delayed by Boeing’s supply chain struggles, Riyadh Cargo’s actual capacity is strictly limited and will take years to materialize as deliveries trickle in.
RAIL — Where does the KSA landbridge project currently stand? The USD 7 bnRiyadh-Jeddah Landbridge rail project is now slated for completion in 2034 rather than 2030, after the government failed to reach an agreement with the tapped Chinese partner over local content requirements, Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) CEO Bashar bin Khalid Al Malik said. SAR said it will now advance the project via “new mechanism” and a phase-based delivery model, Malik added.
Who was involved? The Saudi China Landbridge consortium — led by SAR, China Civil Engineering Construction Company, and Al Ayuni as a local partner — signed an MoU to implement the project in October 2018. US-based construction management firm Hill International, Italian consulting firm Italferr, and Spanish engineering firm Sener were also tapped in 2023 to manage construction.
AVIATION — IATA, CFM renew pro-competition pact, easing restrictions on aftermarket engine services: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and aircraft engine maker CFM International have extended an agreement to support competitive practices in the market for engine maintenance and repairs. The pact — first signed in 2018 — will now be active until 2033.
What does this mean? Under the agreement, CFM International, a 50/50 joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran Aircraft Engines, airlines will be allowed to engage with third-party MRO and spare parts providers for engine works without any impact on warranty coverage.
This is good news for airlines, whose MRO bills have accrued an additional USD 6 bn only in 2025 due to industry-wide scarcity of parts, increased reliance on aging fleets, and constrained MRO capacity. “[Other] manufacturers must take notice and step up,” IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said in a note applauding CFM for the move.
Worth reading
The US’ interest in Greenland may be about more than just rare earths: Melting Arctic ice is opening up new shipping routes of strategic commercial and security interest to the US, Europe, China, and Russia. Greenland’s location on the Northern Sea Route means the US likely views a stronghold in the territory as a strategic outpost, as major and medium-sized world powers vie for influence over these emerging Arctic routes.
^^Read more about how climate change, great power competition, and shipping are converging in the Greenland saga in this Guardian report.
Market watch
Oil prices rose this morning amid an improved market outlook buoyed by halted Kazakh production and Trump’s remarks in Davos easing US-EU tensions over Greenland, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were up USD 0.09 to trade at USD 65.33 / bbl as of 03:20 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by USD 0.13 to USD 60.75 / bbl.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees global oil demand rising further this year to 930k bbl / d, up from 850k bbl / d in 2025, with growth coming from non-OECD markets as global economic conditions normalize following last year’s tariff-induced volatility, according to its monthly oil report. The pickup reflects normalization after last year’s tariff shock. On the supply side, the IEA projects a 2.5 mn bbl / d rise to 108.7 mn bbl / d in 2026, down from the 3 mn bbl / d increase seen in 2025. Non-Opec+ delivers 1.3 mn bbl / d of this year’s growth.
The gap: The IEA now expects global supply to exceed demand by 4.25 mn bbl / d in 1Q, when refinery maintenance curbs crude runs and seasonal demand softens, according to Reuters ’ calculations. For the full year, the agency sees an implied surplus of 3.69 mn bbl / d, slightly narrower than the 3.84 bbl / d penciled in last month’s report.
BUT- Opec is still holding its no surplus argument, expecting global oil demand to rise by 1.39 mn bbl / d this year — with demand for Opec crude looking stable at 43 mn bbl / d. If Opec holds this rate through 2026, supply would sit some 170k bbl / d below demand.
IEA has not published its 2027 forecast yet — it will do so in April’s edition, per the agency’s timetable.
The Baltic Index on an upward streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 4.3% to 1,803 points on Wednesday, extending its rally this week. The capesize gained 6.3% to 2,732 points, while the panamax index climbed up 2.3% to 1,606. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax index increased 13 points to hit 996.
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